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Israel data reportedly shows efficacy drop of Pfizer-BioNTech for delta variant

fortune.com

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Re: Israel data reportedly shows efficacy drop of Pfizer-BioNTech for delta variant

#91
post #2

I'm so exhausted and demoralised by this endless cascade of things-getting-worse. It's taking a really big toll on my mental health and there's no resources available in my country to offer support (and there's nothing to be done except try to learn to live with it, anyways). The future looks bleak.

Then turn off the news. You need to look for actual signals such as availability of emergency services. Hospital capacity.

Is it feasible to “turn off the news” in 2021? I’m not so sure.

Re: Israel data reportedly shows efficacy drop of Pfizer-BioNTech for delta variant

#92
post #9
post #2

I'm so exhausted and demoralised by this endless cascade of things-getting-worse. It's taking a really big toll on my mental health and there's no resources available in my country to offer support (and there's nothing to be done except try to learn to live with it, anyways). The future looks bleak.

Give yourself permission to do two things: * Feel good about the things you are doing that make a positive difference, however small. * Don’t feel guilt about the things that aren’t under your control, however big. P.S. Nobody is in control and the only way big positive differences ever happen is because of the aggregate of small positive differences that everyone makes.

Some people believe almost nothing is under their control.

These people have external locus-of-control. They don't change the world because they kickback and let life happen to them. Mostly, it's religious types who think like this and say "it's god's plan." Bullshit. They're learned helplessness cowards.

Re: Israel data reportedly shows efficacy drop of Pfizer-BioNTech for delta variant

#93
post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would that mean there's an increased likelihood I'll be out and about while contagious if I get the vaccine? It would be hilarious if the same finger-waggers who want everyone vaccinated or quarantined would eventually want to reserve the vaccine for a privileged few.

> the same finger-waggers who want everyone vaccinated or quarantined Ignoring the name-calling for a moment, what is it that you want for everyone?

To have autonomy over their own medical decisions.

Re: Israel data reportedly shows efficacy drop of Pfizer-BioNTech for delta variant

#94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except there would be no need for an ever present risk of lockdown if every single country simply locked down for 3-4 weeks a year and a half ago. But no, muh freedomᵀᴹ and the economy!! are far more important considerations that certainly didn't turn out to actually be incredibly short-sighted. I'm lucky to live in a place with >70% vaccination rate. So this no longer comes from a place of grievance toward personal…

> if every country simply locked down for 3-4 weeks This is an absurd fantasy that couldn’t have been possible in the real world. > But no, muh freedom, and but the economy! Your mocking tone is out of place. I do in fact think freedom and the economy are both important. Don’t you?

What others did is not fantasy but possibility. If your leaders cannot deliver that, replace them.

Re: Israel data reportedly shows efficacy drop of Pfizer-BioNTech for delta variant

#95
post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except there would be no need for an ever present risk of lockdown if every single country simply locked down for 3-4 weeks a year and a half ago. But no, muh freedomᵀᴹ and the economy!! are far more important considerations that certainly didn't turn out to actually be incredibly short-sighted. I'm lucky to live in a place with >70% vaccination rate. So this no longer comes from a place of grievance toward personal…

The very fact you’re suggesting every country locks down for 3-4 weeks” as a solution shows youre ignoring reality. All it would take is for 1 person to travel for the epidemic to continue. Maybe developed nations could do it but developing nations are still dealing with illegal border crossers even 1 year into the epidemic. So great theory but it falls flat in reality.

In my scenario travel in both directions would be disallowed for the time period. This also requires neighboring nations to do the same, as well as farther off countries to implement checks at the airport. All this was somewhat done regardless but in a haphazard manner devoid of full international cooperation.

So we suffered the major drawbacks anyway all while reaping a partial reward.

Re: Israel data reportedly shows efficacy drop of Pfizer-BioNTech for delta variant

#96
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ironically in NZ they have nether vaccine nor any remaining covid. Because they solved it as a community. Instead we created a global persistent pandemic. Cool.

They solved it as long as they can live without contact with anyone else. As much as it shows what could be done with drastic measures, NZ is an island with small population, in the middle of nowhere so it can easily lock its borders compared to say, pretty much any European country. They certainly handled it better, but I'm not sure that they will actually be ready to live in a COVID world any time toon without a st…

Meanwhile we've spent pathetically small sums on making vaccines and expanding production.

Re: Israel data reportedly shows efficacy drop of Pfizer-BioNTech for delta variant

#97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you don't know statistics, it's time to learn. Coronavirus was never a big deal unless you were old, sick, or obese. Even with these demographics, it had a 1% death rate, the same order of magnitude as various viral illnesses. We really should have not blown this out of proportion. I think when people realized we could work from home, people faked fear to enjoy a mini vacation. Media loves fear. Politicians wanted…

This comment makes me want to bet money that you don't work in the health space and you aren't friends with a single practicing healthcare provider. > Do we spend trillions of dollars a year on safer cars? The US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's annual budget exceeds $1T (EDIT: $1 billion, not trillion, thanks KptMarchewa) [1], and that's just part of government spending on highway safety -- far from…

You're wrong by three orders of magnitude. It's 1B, billion.

Re: Israel data reportedly shows efficacy drop of Pfizer-BioNTech for delta variant

#98

I've lost count of how many times we've seen the same headline for different variants and relating to different underlying results, and this "less effective" headline always seems to get interpreted by people I talk to as "we'll be back to living like it's 2020 again pretty soon here" rather than the much more accurate "kinda sucks for us collectively but if you and all your close contacts get vaccinated ( if !) then…

After researching a bit and finding this: https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/israel-50-of-...

I'm wondering whether this number is a population-level observational result that has more to do with someone ignoring base rates rather than delta actually being much better at causing infection.

Re: Israel data reportedly shows efficacy drop of Pfizer-BioNTech for delta variant

#99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except there would be no need for an ever present risk of lockdown if every single country simply locked down for 3-4 weeks a year and a half ago. But no, muh freedomᵀᴹ and the economy!! are far more important considerations that certainly didn't turn out to actually be incredibly short-sighted. I'm lucky to live in a place with >70% vaccination rate. So this no longer comes from a place of grievance toward personal…

It's a little more complicated than that. When you live on islands thousands of miles away from anywhere with a fairly homogenous population and diversified economy, it's easier both physically and politically to take isolation action against a pandemic.

I think the crux of the matter is that I speak with the benefit of hindsight whereas governments had no such luxury. I think, perhaps, if we truly knew with certainty that the pandemic was a more prolonged situation than one could hope for (despite being warned of such), that a more organized and simultaneous effort to shutter economies and travel for a temporary short-term would have been an easier position to argue politically.

Re: Israel data reportedly shows efficacy drop of Pfizer-BioNTech for delta variant

#100
post #78
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The next sentence is: From May 2 to June 5, the efficacy rate in preventing hospitalization was 98.2%, compared with 93% from June 6 to July 3 That's a 4x higher chance of hospitalisation.

That's the relative risk increase. What's the absolute risk increase? Varies by age, but for a young person we're talking the risk going from 0.001% to 0.004%.

That's not a one time risk though! So far it seems a person can be infected multiple times.

Say you get Covid once a year, that's 0.004% per year. Also, wether you need hospitalisation or not, doesn't change the fact that some people are having permanent issues like lost their stamina, hair loss, loss of smell. I have a coworker with neurological issues, but he is not in a hospital.

So the big question is: how effective are the vaccines against long Covid?

And we need that number at or below 0.001% or Covid will overtake other diseases in terms of life expectancies and QoL implications. Assuming we would get once every one to two years.

That's just too much rounds of Russian roulette.

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