I am not proposing we have classes of voters. I am simply highlighting that votes are equal despite the massive range of understanding from voters, from ignorant to expert.
This is very real problem. Yes, experienced business people are far better at understanding the range of issues pertaining to economic and taxation policy. That is self evident. Most people have zero experience and very little understanding of this, once again, particularly as it pertains to a connected global economy.
Here's a simple example of this:
Today politicians in the US are pushing for a truly massive-beyond-description infrastructure spending plan. Removing political intent (buying votes with our tax dollars by throwing money at large groups through these programs), one of the most typical targets of this infrastructure spending are roads, bridges and government buildings.
Simple question for anyone:
Name just ten companies who, in the last, say, 50 years, decided NOT to base their operations in the US because our roads and bridges are deficient. Just ten. Fifty years is a long time. If this is a real problem it should be very easy to rattle-off ten, if not twenty or more companies.
Any?
Nope. Not one.
In other words, this "infrastructure" thing is a solution looking for a problem. Or, put a different way, it is a waste of time and money at a massive scale.
OK, that's a tough question. Fine.
Same question. Only this time, within the US. Name ten companies who, in the last fifty years, chose to move to another US state because of the condition of the roads and bridges in their original state.
No?
It's a fantasy, isn't it?
Spending money like that is irresponsible. It will waste a decade or more. You can't recover the opportunity cost.
You see, lay people buy this crap without perspective and analysis. Our roads and bridges are just fine. Sure, maybe some here and there. And yet this should not be the focus of our spending. I just watched our local transit agency tear-up and re-pave a one mile stretch of road near our home. There was absolutely nothing wrong with the road. In fact, you could argue what they have done is actually worse. The prior road was gray-colored. The current topping is black tar-based. In other words, they created a mile-long super-heating surface in an already hot summer area.
Anyhow, the obvious question then, might be:
If not roads and bridges, where should we invest?
Where it matters. Ask companies what it would take to have them come back. Ask business people what they need. You are likely to compile a list that looks something like this (not complete):
- Lower taxes, federal, state and local
- Lower regulatory burden
- Faster (light-speed fast) building permits and process
- Sensible, fair and fast legal immigration policy
- 10 to 25 year manufacturing subsidies aimed at in-shoring the supply chain
- Invest whatever it takes to bring in not-trivial capacity
in semiconductor and other essential manufacturing
- Stop the minimum wage madness that is killing competitiveness
- Cancel the treaty that allows Chinese companies to ship for free within the US
- Tort reform
- Stop funding and guaranteeing student loans (this raises costs)
- Create an intense pro-business entrepreneurial culture
- Stop throwing money at military crap and use it to fund an industrial revival
This list could be hundreds of lines long. And, yes, some of the items would be controversial and might not make sense. That does not mean they should not be discussed.
As someone in manufacturing, one of the things I want the most is a short and relatively local supply chain. If you are manufacturing microwave ovens in China your supply chain is insanely short. Almost everything you need is within a truck drive from your plant. In the US your supply chain stretches all over the world. Long supply chains cost a lot of money, hence the decision by many to migrate their manufacturing to China. If the glass, screws, wires, chips, displays, plastic you buy is made in China...well, it's hard to justify making your microwave oven in the US when all you can source here might be the box and instruction manual.
An investment in a localized, efficient, low cost supply chain spanning a range of products --from low tech to high tech-- is the single most important decision the US could make. Investing in roads and bridges is going to bring NOTHING to the US. An efficient local supply chain would change the game in ways one can hardly imagine.
Can this be done? Well, it's hard to say until we start focusing on it and getting the right people around the table. We have been focusing on the wrong things for years. Others, like China, have not. This comes with consequences. The uninformed don't have a wide enough view and deep enough expertise to understand where we are and what we need to do to avert disaster.
Perhaps this is the point: When things are good it is OK to make bad decisions here and there because you have a buffer zone. You can make mistakes, survive them and go on. However, when you find yourself in the emergency room, what you need is deep and wide expertise and the right knowledge for someone to be able to make the right decisions. No more amateur night or well-intended-but-dangerous decisions rooted in ignorance.
The US and Europe are in the same place with regards to China. They have intelligently sucked in every industry of any value from both regions. It is hard to create a list of the massive segments of industry that have migrated operations from the US and Europe to China. You have to be in awe of what they have accomplished in about fifty years. If the US and Europe don't change their approach to business we will both suffer further erosion of whatever job-generation we have left. This is no longer a hypothetical. This is very real. And, yes, people with expertise need to be making decisions, not politicians or ignorant voters.