The forecast over time shows the green candidate to rise sharply to be favorite and then decline over the last 2 months - what happened?
German Federal Election Forecast 2021 – INWT
51–60 of 83 posts
Re: German Federal Election Forecast 2021 – INWT
#52Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is kind of a philosophical question, innit? To me, social progressivism is left, and these CDU people seem to be full of it.
I admit I didn't read the programme yet, can you give some concrete points which you find socially progressive? I can't remember much social progressiveness coming out of that party in the past, but my memory is usually pretty bad.
Re: German Federal Election Forecast 2021 – INWT
#53The three candidates seem to be from the left. That's really odd. I guess things there are like here in Spain and the right wing is ridiculously emasculated? (Someone flagged this but I would still like an explanation. If you don't want to post it that's fine but you don't have to flag it)
If you mean the chancellor candidates, the most likely one is Laschet from the CDU, which is certainly not left. They're the major conservative party in Germany.
Re: German Federal Election Forecast 2021 – INWT
#54Earlier quoted context omitted.
> so little doctors with super long waiting times for so many people (to the point of memeing about it) - and they are okay with it. What action would you suggest the average person to take if they are not ok with this situation?
Vote for a party that makes medical universities a priority! There are laughably many german students studying medicine in other EU states and coming back, because current central system is overwhelmed by applicants and there are so little seats.
Re: German Federal Election Forecast 2021 – INWT
#55Earlier quoted context omitted.
I admit I didn't read the programme yet, can you give some concrete points which you find socially progressive? I can't remember much social progressiveness coming out of that party in the past, but my memory is usually pretty bad.
Ecological sustainability, sexual equality, integration policies for immigrants... All I've seen just from skimming through their PDF
For the other points I think the devil is in the details. If you only count parties as "not left" that are completely against sexual equality and immigration you will have a hard time finding anything. Perhaps the AfD would be closer to your "not left" definition, but even they have openly homosexual members in important positions, and I believe they're not against immigration of highly qualified workers...
Re: German Federal Election Forecast 2021 – INWT
#56The forecast over time shows the green candidate to rise sharply to be favorite and then decline over the last 2 months - what happened?
2) There were multiple corruption scandals coming to light in the ruling party: In spring 2020 the halth ministry ordered overprized masks from politically well-connected entrepreneurs. In a different story, multiple backbenchers and local politicans of the conservative parties had backroom deals with the Aserbaijani dictatorship. The conservative party in Germany has often been caught in corruption, but it seems to hurt them much less than the other parties.
3) The CDU/CSU elected a candidate who doesn't inspire much confidence.
The dip of the Greens can be explained by a mix of the rollout going well now, the scandals being forgotten again, and massive (social) media campaign against the Greens, often on the basis of false information. (Actually reminds me of Hillary's emails)
Re: German Federal Election Forecast 2021 – INWT
#57The forecast over time shows the green candidate to rise sharply to be favorite and then decline over the last 2 months - what happened?
At the beginning, there were irregularities in her CV. Now she has a recently unearthed history of plagiarism in her book and the party tried its best to avoid confession of any wrongdoing. Also, there was a gender-related shitshow in Green primaries in Saarland. Basically the country leadership of the Green party hates the idea that a female #1 was voted out of the Saarland list three times in a row, thus giving an…
The CV irregularities seem to be rather minor (probably deliberate) miss-translations from English to German, if I understood it all correctly. Definitely not good, but hardly worthy of a proper scandal. The plagiarism stuff is all BS. Did someone use ctrl-c and ctrl-v? Yes. To an illegal or even immoral extent? IMO, no.
Re: German Federal Election Forecast 2021 – INWT
#58Earlier quoted context omitted.
You seem to use a different definition of "left" and "right" than me. What points in the party programme make them a "left" party?
This is kind of a philosophical question, innit? To me, social progressivism is left, and these CDU people seem to be full of it.
They're advocating for more surveillance and "tough on crime" policies. Mentioning this weird media-hyped "crime family problem".
They're against more integrated school-system reform.
I want to see where you're finding all this social progressivism in their program. Only thing I can see is like "more women in positions of leadership" maybe. But that's about it from what I can see.
Re: German Federal Election Forecast 2021 – INWT
#59Earlier quoted context omitted.
There would be nothing inherently wrong with making building wind turbines harder if you actually presented an alternative means of reaching carbon neutrality fast.
Nuclear power plants ?
Re: German Federal Election Forecast 2021 – INWT
#60Having Armin Laschet as the new Kanzler would be an unmitigated disaster. He's about as clever as George W., and as helpless and uninformed as Jeb. Thank god he's not actively malicious. An empty vessel of a politician. Let's hope a coalition with the Greens will force him towards reasonable policies nevertheless.
Where Laschet had his invented grades because he misplaced some tests during his time as a professor, Baerbock plagiarized in her book. Both have had "problems" in their CV.
Both are the second-rate candiates of their party, chosen for pleasing everyone, not for being outstanding or competent in any way. Baerbock was chosen over Habeck because she is a woman, where Habeck was obviously more qualified. Laschet was chosen over Merz and Soeder because the latter ones would have had some controversial ideas. Whereas Laschet, while being unpopular in general, never stepped on anyones toes (that being his only notable skill).
Whether any outcome will or won't be a desaster depends on the coalition that is formed after the election. And after the coalition is formed, who is going to occupy which ministry, and what compromises they had to make to get the coalition going. My nightmare scenario would be a CDU/CSU/Green coalition where the greens impose all their eco taxes and policies, but just on the peons, because the CDU protects their buddies in the industry and agriculture. Any eco tax reimbursement the Greens are currently promising will of course be swallowed up by "sorry, there is no money" and "we need to be fiscally responsible after all".