The forecast over time shows the green candidate to rise sharply to be favorite and then decline over the last 2 months - what happened?
German Federal Election Forecast 2021 – INWT
31–40 of 83 posts
Re: German Federal Election Forecast 2021 – INWT
#32Earlier quoted context omitted.
As someone who knows nothing about that issue, what you said is neither here nor there. That makes it look like you're just repeating a political talking point without understanding why it matters or what it means. There's nothing inherently wrong with making building wind turbines harder. Maybe it's for safety reasons, or to protect the environment or workers rights or property rights or whatever. It's absolutely th…
There would be nothing inherently wrong with making building wind turbines harder if you actually presented an alternative means of reaching carbon neutrality fast.
Nuclear power plants ?
Re: German Federal Election Forecast 2021 – INWT
#33Earlier quoted context omitted.
You seem to use a different definition of "left" and "right" than me. What points in the party programme make them a "left" party?
This is kind of a philosophical question, innit? To me, social progressivism is left, and these CDU people seem to be full of it.
They are the ones slowing down or preventing pretty much everything I would expect to be labelled "social progressivism", so I have no clue what you are on about.
Re: German Federal Election Forecast 2021 – INWT
#34Earlier quoted context omitted.
There would be nothing inherently wrong with making building wind turbines harder if you actually presented an alternative means of reaching carbon neutrality fast.
Not sure you understand my point. Imagine, for example, the industry was poorly regulated and filled with cowboys. Lots of workers were getting killed in accidents and the government made stricter safety regulations to protect them but it also increased the difficulty of building wind turbines. Is that really a bad thing? Should they sacrifice human life to get maximum speed towards carbon neutrality?
imaginary scenarios are relevant to actual politics being criticized how?
Re: German Federal Election Forecast 2021 – INWT
#35I have immigrated into this country 12 years ago and became citizen 3 years ago and still, to this day, some facets of german culture fascinate me. Most of germans have seriously high threshold for „pain, which reflects in almost every everyday life situation: 1. customer service is abysmal and they are ok with it. 2. bureucratic machine is horrible and they are ok with it. 3. politics stagnating last decades and the…
> so little doctors with super long waiting times for so many people (to the point of memeing about it) - and they are okay with it.
What action would you suggest the average person to take if they are not ok with this situation?
Re: German Federal Election Forecast 2021 – INWT
#36I'm curious how well this will fare in a German context, as opposed to the US, where 538 now seems a solid part of the campaign season. Some differences come to mind: voter participation in DE is higher and campaign cost is much lower, meaning it is perhaps a bit less about activating your supporters and more about actually getting people to change their preferences. Volatility seems really high, too - see the recent…
German elections are much less tactical and significantly more boring than US elections. The US system creates much bigger swings based on small differences and creates much more of a narrative around campaign strategies. In Germany you pretty much just look at one poll for all parties and the popularity of the potential chancellors, but that's it.
this isn't a bad thing
Re: German Federal Election Forecast 2021 – INWT
#37Earlier quoted context omitted.
German elections are much less tactical and significantly more boring than US elections. The US system creates much bigger swings based on small differences and creates much more of a narrative around campaign strategies. In Germany you pretty much just look at one poll for all parties and the popularity of the potential chancellors, but that's it.
this isn't a bad thing
I'm not saying it's a bad thing, I like boring and reliable elections with more than two choices. But I suspect that this also means that there is simply not that much interest for a 538-like site in Germany.
Re: German Federal Election Forecast 2021 – INWT
#38The forecast over time shows the green candidate to rise sharply to be favorite and then decline over the last 2 months - what happened?
There where mistakes in here resume. Nothing too bad, but I guess this depends on which political side you are on. Of course PR used it to gain a foothold and it seems to work pretty good.
Guess the other party saw the numbers and activated its network to counter.
Re: German Federal Election Forecast 2021 – INWT
#39Earlier quoted context omitted.
Not sure you understand my point. Imagine, for example, the industry was poorly regulated and filled with cowboys. Lots of workers were getting killed in accidents and the government made stricter safety regulations to protect them but it also increased the difficulty of building wind turbines. Is that really a bad thing? Should they sacrifice human life to get maximum speed towards carbon neutrality?
imaginary scenarios are relevant to actual politics being criticized how?
That's exactly the point the grandparent made - as long as we don't know the actual circumstances, we can only imagine scenarios (that can go either way) and these do not matter.
Re: German Federal Election Forecast 2021 – INWT
#40I have immigrated into this country 12 years ago and became citizen 3 years ago and still, to this day, some facets of german culture fascinate me. Most of germans have seriously high threshold for „pain, which reflects in almost every everyday life situation: 1. customer service is abysmal and they are ok with it. 2. bureucratic machine is horrible and they are ok with it. 3. politics stagnating last decades and the…
> so little doctors with super long waiting times for so many people (to the point of memeing about it) - and they are okay with it. What action would you suggest the average person to take if they are not ok with this situation?
Vote for a party that makes medical universities a priority! There are laughably many german students studying medicine in other EU states and coming back, because current central system is overwhelmed by applicants and there are so little seats.