German Federal Election Forecast 2021 – INWT
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German Federal Election Forecast 2021 – INWT
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Re: German Federal Election Forecast 2021 – INWT
#2Let's hope, they're wrong. This corrupt idiot will destroy anything and everything. He just signed a paper to make building wind turbines A LOT harder and even wants to prevent people to take legal action against it.
Re: German Federal Election Forecast 2021 – INWT
#3I'm curious how well this will fare in a German context, as opposed to the US, where 538 now seems a solid part of the campaign season.
Some differences come to mind: voter participation in DE is higher and campaign cost is much lower, meaning it is perhaps a bit less about activating your supporters and more about actually getting people to change their preferences.
Volatility seems really high, too - see the recent rise and fall of the Greens. There's also a few weird turning points, like the 5% quorum that could conceivably hit the Left this season. And there's the non-fixed number of seats.
So: congrats, INWT, for the nice marketing. Let's see if you picked a good model :)
Re: German Federal Election Forecast 2021 – INWT
#4[deleted]
Re: German Federal Election Forecast 2021 – INWT
#5Now it's only a small step until we finally have the technology to make voting completely unnecessary. /s
Re: German Federal Election Forecast 2021 – INWT
#6I'm curious how well this will fare in a German context, as opposed to the US, where 538 now seems a solid part of the campaign season. Some differences come to mind: voter participation in DE is higher and campaign cost is much lower, meaning it is perhaps a bit less about activating your supporters and more about actually getting people to change their preferences. Volatility seems really high, too - see the recent…
German elections are much less tactical and significantly more boring than US elections. The US system creates much bigger swings based on small differences and creates much more of a narrative around campaign strategies. In Germany you pretty much just look at one poll for all parties and the popularity of the potential chancellors, but that's it.
Re: German Federal Election Forecast 2021 – INWT
#7I have immigrated into this country 12 years ago and became citizen 3 years ago and still, to this day, some facets of german culture fascinate me. Most of germans have seriously high threshold for „pain, which reflects in almost every everyday life situation:
1. customer service is abysmal and they are ok with it.
2. bureucratic machine is horrible and they are ok with it.
3. politics stagnating last decades and they are okay with it.
4. so little doctors with super long waiting times for so many people (to the point of memeing about it) - and they are okay with it.
5. no wealth accumulation through generations because its impossible to buy anything. Everyone rents and they are okay with it. Nothing gets built, infrastructre expnsion is non existent in cities.
Impotence in the government (digitalisation is a joke right now, everyone knows berlin airport fiasco, now vaccination stuff) is the most infuriating one for me and yet they still vote for CDU. At this point I have no idea how to understand this. CDU have lost many of its voters not because people had „enough“ and switched, but because lots of CDU electorate just died of old age. sigh
Re: German Federal Election Forecast 2021 – INWT
#8The three candidates seem to be from the left. That's really odd. I guess things there are like here in Spain and the right wing is ridiculously emasculated?
(Someone flagged this but I would still like an explanation. If you don't want to post it that's fine but you don't have to flag it)
Re: German Federal Election Forecast 2021 – INWT
#9I wonder how much it costs to walk up to one of these forecasters and buy the first place. Given how popular forecasting seems to be, I am convinced there is a good bussiness model behind.
Re: German Federal Election Forecast 2021 – INWT
#10The three candidates seem to be from the left. That's really odd. I guess things there are like here in Spain and the right wing is ridiculously emasculated? (Someone flagged this but I would still like an explanation. If you don't want to post it that's fine but you don't have to flag it)
If you mean the chancellor candidates, the most likely one is Laschet from the CDU, which is certainly not left. They're the major conservative party in Germany.