German Federal Election Forecast 2021 – INWT • Hacker News Board

Re: German Federal Election Forecast 2021 – INWT

#41

Post by inglor_cz » Fri, Jul 02, 2021, 9:26 AM UTC

neppo wrote: post #31

The forecast over time shows the green candidate to rise sharply to be favorite and then decline over the last 2 months - what happened?

At the beginning, there were irregularities in her CV. Now she has a recently unearthed history of plagiarism in her book and the party tried its best to avoid confession of any wrongdoing.

Also, there was a gender-related shitshow in Green primaries in Saarland. Basically the country leadership of the Green party hates the idea that a female #1 was voted out of the Saarland list three times in a row, thus giving an opportunity for a male candidate to lead the list (contrary to the Green rule that odd-numbered positions in a list, including #1, of course, must go to women). Saarland is small but still pretty prominent in German politics, generating a lot of federal-level politicians. And a lot of attention, because the story is pretty bizarre. The next chosen woman for #2, Irina Gaydukova, had a very bad interview that basically showed her unable to address very simple question and cast doubt on her ability to speak German at a professional level. It reminded some voters thad IdPol is sort-of tacky and the Green party is very deeply into IdPol.

Baerbock does not seem to be a very strong candidate personally. She was basically chosen over Habeck because she was of the right gender, not because of any obvious political advantage over him. But Germany has had 16 years of female chancellorship by now, so the idea of having a woman run the country is no longer particularly new or attractive.

But to be honest, all the leading candidates are fairly boring, perhaps with the exception of Olaf Scholz, who nevertheless leads a very dysfunctional party (SPD) and does not really have a shot.

So it is a fight between equals in mediocrity.

Re: German Federal Election Forecast 2021 – INWT

#42

Post by adrianN » Fri, Jul 02, 2021, 9:26 AM UTC

undfg wrote: post #30

adrianN wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You seem to use a different definition of "left" and "right" than me. What points in the party programme make them a "left" party?

This is kind of a philosophical question, innit? To me, social progressivism is left, and these CDU people seem to be full of it.

I admit I didn't read the programme yet, can you give some concrete points which you find socially progressive? I can't remember much social progressiveness coming out of that party in the past, but my memory is usually pretty bad.

Re: German Federal Election Forecast 2021 – INWT

#43

Post by adrianN » Fri, Jul 02, 2021, 9:29 AM UTC

exporectomy wrote: post #29

adrianN wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There would be nothing inherently wrong with making building wind turbines harder if you actually presented an alternative means of reaching carbon neutrality fast.

Not sure you understand my point. Imagine, for example, the industry was poorly regulated and filled with cowboys. Lots of workers were getting killed in accidents and the government made stricter safety regulations to protect them but it also increased the difficulty of building wind turbines. Is that really a bad thing? Should they sacrifice human life to get maximum speed towards carbon neutrality?

I see your point. However, this is not what's happening in Germany. Last year the Netherlands managed to build more wind turbines than Germany. I don't think you need reckless endangerment of anybody or anything to beat that number.

Re: German Federal Election Forecast 2021 – INWT

#44

Post by akie » Fri, Jul 02, 2021, 9:30 AM UTC

Having Armin Laschet as the new Kanzler would be an unmitigated disaster. He's about as clever as George W., and as helpless and uninformed as Jeb. Thank god he's not actively malicious. An empty vessel of a politician.

Let's hope a coalition with the Greens will force him towards reasonable policies nevertheless.

Re: German Federal Election Forecast 2021 – INWT

#45

Post by detaro » Fri, Jul 02, 2021, 9:30 AM UTC

Sebb767 wrote: post #39

detaro wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

imaginary scenarios are relevant to actual politics being criticized how?

That's exactly the point the grandparent made - as long as we don't know the actual circumstances, we can only imagine scenarios (that can go either way) and these do not matter.

so the point is that a short throwaway comment in an online forum didn't contain the full context for people who know nothing about the situation? And instead of asking for context we rather go "oh but there are theoretical situations where your statement is bad!"?

Re: German Federal Election Forecast 2021 – INWT

#46

Post by josefx » Fri, Jul 02, 2021, 9:31 AM UTC

neppo wrote: post #31

The forecast over time shows the green candidate to rise sharply to be favorite and then decline over the last 2 months - what happened?

She got caught stuffing her qualifications with memberships in a lot of high profile organizations. In the same way a software developer would list a valve partnership in his qualifications after buying a game on steam.

Re: German Federal Election Forecast 2021 – INWT

#47

Post by flohofwoe » Fri, Jul 02, 2021, 9:35 AM UTC

undfg wrote: post #8

The three candidates seem to be from the left. That's really odd. I guess things there are like here in Spain and the right wing is ridiculously emasculated? (Someone flagged this but I would still like an explanation. If you don't want to post it that's fine but you don't have to flag it)

The most likely chancellor candidate is CDU (Christian Democrats, which is right of the middle), and the next likely is from the Greens. IMHO even whether the Greens are actually "left" can be debated, most of their voters are well off city dwellers with green, but not necessarily left political views.

Re: German Federal Election Forecast 2021 – INWT

#48

Post by anfelor » Fri, Jul 02, 2021, 9:36 AM UTC

neppo wrote: post #31

The forecast over time shows the green candidate to rise sharply to be favorite and then decline over the last 2 months - what happened?

The CDU had a rough period where they were accused of mismanaging several important parts of the covid strategy (including giving contracts for pursuing masks to their cronies) and they couldn't figure out who should become their candidate (they don't have primary elections and Laschet who was prefered by the establishment was vastly less popular overall than Söder. Laschet is now their candidate).

So the Greens had a good start but their candidate has no experience in government and has recently been painted as incompetent. She inflated some parts of her CV and apparently didn't cite all the sources she used for her book (even though she sometimes copied paragraphs almost verbatim). Nothing too bad, but it still doesn't look good.

Re: German Federal Election Forecast 2021 – INWT

#49

Post by QuesnayJr » Fri, Jul 02, 2021, 9:39 AM UTC

corty wrote: post #20

QuesnayJr wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Greens look a blip caused by the slow vaccine rollout. Their peak is right around when people were maximally angry about how far the EU was behind the UK.

Nope. The blip coincides with and was caused by a corruption scandal involving quite a few CDU/CSU politicians. As well as an increase in Greens' press coverage when they announced their candidates. Both influences have subsided by now

This is wrong. April and May was peak anger about the coronavirus response. Around that time, the political conversations among Germans was entirely about the virus and how sick of it they were, and they were blaming the party in power. People care far more about being stuck at home for another summer than they care about corruption, or the media splash made by Baerbock. Plus, von der Leyen serves as a convenient symbol of an EU bureaucracy run as a retirement home for the incompetent and well-connected, and she's a CDU politician. Baerbock's appeal was that she would be a change from a status quo that failed.

But then since mid-May they administered 40 million doses, and everything is forgiven. Just subjectively, it went from no one I know is vaccinated, to everyone is either vaccinated or has an appointment to be vaccinated. Summer isn't canceled after all.

Re: German Federal Election Forecast 2021 – INWT

#50

Post by corty » Fri, Jul 02, 2021, 9:39 AM UTC

number6 wrote: post #38

neppo wrote: post #31

The forecast over time shows the green candidate to rise sharply to be favorite and then decline over the last 2 months - what happened?

There where mistakes in here resume. Nothing too bad, but I guess this depends on which political side you are on. Of course PR used it to gain a foothold and it seems to work pretty good. Guess the other party saw the numbers and activated its network to counter.

The Greens had and squandered the oppportunity to present themselves as being fresh, unencumbered, honest, evidence-based, non-corrupt. Baerbock's resume problems and the plagiarized book sections destroyed that hope, as well as her election as a women over an obviously more qualified man (Habeck). So the Greens lost their advantage in that regard, now they are just one bad option among other bad ones with regards to political ethics.

At the same time, the CDU started to enact some Green policies like raising fuel prices, but doing so with the hint that they would look out for the economy and the little man and be more responsible than the Greens. Since the greens also include some pretty radical eco-deindustrialist people, that move made the CDU look like a better alternative while still soothing peoples' bad eco conscience.

So yes, bad PR work by the Greens, good PR work by the CDU/CSU.