Live data from Hacker News

Survey shows people no longer believe working hard will lead to a better life

insidermag.net

451–460 of 715 posts

Re: Survey shows people no longer believe working hard will lead to a better life

#451
post #422

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How much more it could have advanced for the masses under a more optimum system though, is unknown. Take war for example: is the amount of war we wage actually necessary? Is there no better way to do things than we currently do, across all domains? If you think of our world as Sim Earth, what would 2021 look like under near perfect play, how far are we off from that, and for what reasons? One reason might be that we…

What is even a perfect play? Do you think all people on Earth would agree with your notion of a perfect play? If not, which opinions are you willing to sacrifice and why?

I believe that perfect play is approximately that which maximizes aggregate happiness for all of humanity. Opinions will vary of course, because true optimality is unknowable to mere mortals, and how to get there, optimally or not, is probably even more difficult to discern.

That said, it is not a binary - I think it's well within our theoretical ability to realize that some things (war, extreme inequality, etc) are sub-optimal, and work to minimize such things over time. I say theoretical because one thing I have noticed is that when one suggests optimistic, common sense ideas of how to improve the world, most people usually disagree/downvote. To me, this unrealized innate default behavior is one of the many things that holds humanity back from achieving greater things.

See what I mean? :)

Re: Survey shows people no longer believe working hard will lead to a better life

#452

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You have very, very, good odds of doing better than your parents if you manage to get to age 25 without incurring a felony record, addiction to something that will likely kill you or too many child support payments. That is a laughably low bar, and it is unlikely for the trend you are describing to continue past the move from poor to lower middle class. In a fair society, with equality of opportunity, it should be…

> In a fair society, with equality of opportunity, it should be equally likely for a child born in a trailer park to become high income earner as it is for Bill Gate's child. That is the normal social mobility we should expect in a democratic society with no class structure. We are so laughably far off from this everywhere in the world... That’s only if you assume there isn’t a generic component to traits that influe…

> We should expect Bill Gates to be much more intelligent, conscientious, and to have much better impulse control than typical people living in a trailer park.

Post hoc ergo propter hoc. Even if there are genes for success, being successful is not proof of having those genes, and being unsuccessful is not proof of not having them.

Furthermore, if we assume that someone swapped Bill Gates' baby with a baby born in a trailer park, do you truly think that Bill Gates' genetic child will have a much better chance at success than the child Gates raised as his own?

Re: Survey shows people no longer believe working hard will lead to a better life

#453

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What you’re not counting, and what most people miss, is that not only are you at a disadvantage due to lack of resources, but there are many people in positions of authority, power, or just plain tenure who believe that accumulated wealth is a reflection of the wealth of soul. If you are below them in birth, and didn’t chance yourself to some higher strata by the time they grace your presence, they tend to believe yo…

Show me the data that supports this claim. Big claim, zero citations. As an American I've never met anyone who thinks wealth reflects "wealth of the soul." In my experience people here are Christian, in which case there's that verse about heaven and wealth and the eye of the needle (Google it) or they're atheist and don't believe in souls.

> I've never met anyone who thinks wealth reflects "wealth of the soul."

I've never met one either, but I've definitely met plenty of people who think the opposite: if you had any advantages of any kind over anybody else, your accomplishments don't "count". The only people who can actually be proud of what they've achieved and deserve what they have are people who were thrown away in a dumpster at birth, grew up in a run-down, inner-city, rat-infested orphanage being beaten every day but still managed to graduate with a perfect GPA even though they had to walk five miles each way to school in the snow with no shoes.

Re: Survey shows people no longer believe working hard will lead to a better life

#454
post #365

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Working as a plumber, an electrician, or a carpenter can be quite lucrative This narrative about wealthy trades people like plumbers and welders is not well supported by any data. The ones who do well are the ones who start businesses and hire people, so they become business owners, but most trades people don’t end up there and they obviously can’t all do it. You should know that the U.S. Fed (St. Louis) published…

Have you seen any studies on it being a causal relationship between the education and the income doubling? Ie i'm curious if the people who complete a graduate are also inherently more likely to have higher earnings. I'm in full support of education, so this isn't a backhanded reason to argue against education. The disclaimer seems necessary these days :(

Yes, there are such studies, quite a few IIRC (there have been some deep threads on this topic here on HN before, I’ll see if I can dig any up), and there definitely is some component of education providing higher earnings purely due to employer selection, and/or social selection & bias. So earnings are a mix of the education and skills learned, and of the social signaling that the certificate provides, plus other causes. I’m also in full support of education, but you’re right the disclaimer is absolutely necessary, and there are some components of misleading social narrative surrounding education, just like there are surrounding social mobility.

Re: Survey shows people no longer believe working hard will lead to a better life

#455
post #434
post #37

Working hard but doing so for someone else can often not lead to significant gains. Many services like Uber or InstaCart or even McDonalds or Amazon Warehouse or Walmart or Retail Sales or call center, you can work hard but there is no where to progress to. Your rewards are capped. You need to find a way to work hard such that your rewards are not capped artificially. Startups were you get equity. Large companies whe…

IMHO, this misses the point. How the fuck can Elon/Tesla buy bitcoin, do a pump and dump, and walk away with enough money to cover 300 lifetimes of me working. Or some kid in a basement that bought GME options gets to retire and not work a day in their life. Also the guy that VC gifted 6 figures (multiple years of me working) of equity just because he wanted more money from the acquisition. Watching people get a bunc…

Elon can pump and dump because he has a massive following and can manipulate the market. Some kid in a basement can buy GME options, but for every one of those you see on Reddit, you'll not see 10 or 50 people who lost money on the bet, or it'll be a large corporation who lost out on the meme stocks, but they just use the tax system to write off the losses.

It seems that mass media and culture is revealing some truths, that there are extremely wealthy people at the top 0.01%, far above even surgeons or lawyers or engineers, who work very hard and are just as smart as the ultra-rich (if not more smart/hardworking). The difference is those professionals optimized for interesting, impactful work that also pays nicely, and the ultra-rich are optimizing for maximal wealth creation, or they're simply inheriting it or getting lucky on risky bets.

In any case, I think lower-wage workers will slowly get a better lot, since our employment rate is increasing and people after the pandemic are realizing how exploitative many jobs are.

Re: Survey shows people no longer believe working hard will lead to a better life

#456

I think one thing that changed in recent years is that there are more possibilities for hitting it big. Sure, it's survivor bias and all, but it takes one successful indie game (Minecraft, Flappy Bird), a good investment in the right time (early Bitcoin, early Ethereum, GME in December) and you can never work again in your life. Similarly if you are lucky enough and your Twitch channel becomes popular, you can stream…

I don't think any of these things are possible at any scale that matters. There are a handful of people rich from Bitcoin, Etherium, and Twitch streaming. Then there are 300,000,000 other Americans. Many of them bought high and sold low, or just aren't good at streaming games, and now they're just farther in the hole -- they have an investment account valued at $0, an overpriced mining GPU they bought from a scalper,…

Yeah, especially since the people that hit it big on Bitcoin, GME, Ethereum are cashing out at the expense of the people getting in late; it's a wealth transfer mechanism akin to a pyramid scheme (and it keeps going until it runs out of people to pull in, just like any other pyramid scheme). Twitch streamers / YouTube creators at least provide some entertainment/educational value at scale, so it's more "legitimate" as a source of success, if you can call it that.

It might not be as much of an issue if the people getting in late are already well off (then it's just redistribution), but otherwise it's people rising up on the backs of the misfortune (or cluelessness) of others.

Re: Survey shows people no longer believe working hard will lead to a better life

#457
post #93

Starting conditions (where one was born, levels of wealth and opportunity there, one's parents' education and jobs) are shockingly predictive about an individual's future. Hard work leading to social mobility has always been the exception, not the rule. Most will not beat the odds since if they did, those wouldn't BE the odds. A lot of us are just so deluded by survivorship bias borne of listening only to success sto…

Do you honestly believe this? What would you tell this to someone who wasn't born into wealth or opportunity? You're pretty much screwed, don't bother? What impact do you think teaching nihilism has on children? I don't believe its true, but even if it were, it's not a useful model for life.

> Do you honestly believe this? What would you tell this to someone who wasn't born into wealth or opportunity?

I can take a guess. Notice GP's emphasis on starting conditions without an explanation of where those starting conditions come from. If personal effort is fruitless (an "illusion," as GP puts it), then they must originate with something else. In this ideology that's usually thought to be exploitation, one group oppressing another and getting rich off their labor.

It's popular in part because it's partly true; stealing is certainly one way to get rich. But so is building. It doesn't have to be zero sum. Unfortunately it's easy to believe that it is because it excuses mediocrity. It's harder to believe that every choice matters because it entails more suffering in the short term.

Re: Survey shows people no longer believe working hard will lead to a better life

#458
post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How much social mobility we talking? Statistically nobody goes from trailer park to billionare by working hard. You have very, very, good odds of doing better than your parents if you manage to get to age 25 without incurring a felony record, addiction to something that will likely kill you or too many child support payments. edit: I'm only talking about the US

> How much social mobility we talking? ([...] only talking about the US) My college US history course ~20 years ago very much drove home the fact that (at least at the time) social mobility in the US was the same as in India. The surprise, of course, was that India has a caste system, while the US narrative is freedom; if you work hard, you’ll get ahead. I don’t remember the sources, but the rate of social mobility (…

>social mobility in the US was the same as in India. The surprise, of course, was that India has a caste system, while the US narrative is freedom; if you work hard, you’ll get ahead.

The difference is that the average standard of living ins the US far exceeds India's standard.

Yes you may not make your way to billionaire high class status from the lower class but you certainly can drastically improve your circumstances by working hard. The alternative is not to work hard which definitely isn't going to make your life better.

Additionally, I'd like to know how you think society should be shaped? It seems the other option would be to follow a more socialist or communist route where "equity" is the ultimate utopia... and that typically just brings everyone down to a lower status instead of raising everyone to a higher one.

Re: Survey shows people no longer believe working hard will lead to a better life

#459
post #355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People like stories of extremely poor ending up rich and it doesn't help that the rich like to abuse these kinds of stories to better their optics. What looks better on a millionaire: * The poor guy that invested every cent he had and kept slaving away for years every day at the brink of certain failure. * The rich kid that got several hundred thousand from his parents for his first company and knew exactly that fail…

Except, some of us really did grow up in trailer parks and make it. Mostly through hard work. Luck too, but it isn't a completely false narrative. I am sure there are a lot of biases at play and that is not the statistically average way someone becomes a millionaire, yet it does actually happen.

Some people win the lottery too, it doesn't mean it's actionable advice or good policy. It also happens to be statistically easier if you can afford more tickets.

Re: Survey shows people no longer believe working hard will lead to a better life

#460
post #377

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I propose Success = Hard Work * Opportunity^2. That is to say that hard work without opportunity equals nothing and opportunity without work equals nothing. But work and opportunity do not have a linear relationship, a bit more opportunity can greatly leverage a bit of extra work. Big opportunities practically become self-fulfilling. Just look at all the poor students who became president. Their lack of work in schoo…

Having done both tech and minimum wage, the difference is that I can do the minimum wage job and they couldn't do mine. Minimum wage jobs often use humans as robots, and most humans can move around in relatively complex ways all days - that's what our brain evolved to do. I can do it, the minimum wage workers can do it. On the other hand most people can't write code. I'm not confident that most of the people that I w…

I think this is an important point, and one that is rarely discussed. We've seen our economy shift to one where the highest paid jobs are those that are based predominantly on knowledge (doctor, lawyer, engineer, and also licensed trades like plumber, electrician, etc.). Knowledge is something anyone can attain, but some people gain knowledge easier than others... we generally refer to that ability to gain and retain knowledge as intelligence. There's a huge cliff, rather than a progression, between menial low-skilled jobs and high-skill jobs, where before there was a much more progressive increase in income. This has had numerous impacts on society, such as creating the K-shaped recovery coming out of 2020, and the vastly different outcomes for unemployment across socioeconomic lines.

Intelligence is on a bell curve, flatter for men, more rounded for women, but nonetheless has a relatively normal distribution, and the types of work that are most well-rewarded in society are shifting right-wards (towards higher IQ individuals) along that distribution. It's a simple fact that our economy is shifting in such a way that the average person no longer has the same opportunities for success that the average person had 20-30 years ago. We don't know all the reasons why someone might have higher intelligence than someone else, whether it's genetic, or a factor of their home life, or some other psychological trigger that happens in childhood. But it's a simple fact, at this point, that higher IQ people are likely to have higher earning outcomes in our current economy. It's not just that opportunity is a multiplicative factor (as others have mentioned), it's that you must have the capabilities to capitalize on an opportunity and turn it into a successful outcome.

Probably many of those minimum wage workers have the necessary intelligence to do more complex knowledge-based work that is more richly rewarded, but many of them do not, and they are being left behind as our economy changes. One of the last great jobs for people who are of average intelligence to have meaningful economic mobility is going to be eliminated by automation within the next 20-30 years (OTR trucking), and within the same time span our society will have no choice but to wrestle with the reality we've created. I think it's obvious at this point that our socioeconomic structure does not work well for everyone, but that changing it to work better for those left behind will artificially hinder technological and social advancement for all. This is one of the reasons I think UBI is likely to be the path forward for society in the future. Everyone deserves basic human dignity and the needs met to support that dignity, and our continued increases in productivity through technology make it possible to allow for that even as there is no longer meaningful work for large swathes of the population.

Post reply on HN