111–120 of 330 posts
I just bought a 12v 200ah battery for $2300 AUD. It could be done for less, but this was a premium model. Hopefully when I purchase a second one in a year or two, it will be a bit cheaper.
Yes, but their energy density has hardly changed and every gasoline tank beats your average LiIon battery by a factor of 10: > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density#In_chemical_rea...
also energy density of cells and packs continues to improve and has improved a lot since 1991
I’ve been buying 18650 cells for 6 years and they’re always the same price shrug
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If musk is to believed, (and I think he's on point with this), $50/kWh will likely come within the next 5 years. So next 9 years? My expectation is beyond Tesla, the rest of the industry will have hit on that sub $50/kwh price point. That is going to make a lot of things really interesting. $2000 for a 30kWh home battery backup? Who wouldn't get one? To further this, with climate change leading to more and more extre…
> $2000 for a 30kWh home battery backup? Who wouldn't get one? Very few of the people that would currently benefit from a domestic backup battery could afford $2k, and most of the people who do have $2k to spare don’t live in places with unreliable electricity. The overlap isn’t zero, but… for example, I visited Kenya with an ex of mine, we met a local friend of hers, that friend would’ve benefited from a more reliab…
Increasing the mix of renewables in the electricity networks will mean most people live in places with unreliable electricity going forward. The proposed $2k 30kWh home battery backup could well be the adaptation many of us have to make.
I don't think this applies to Duracell or Energizer alkaline batteries unfortunately :( Of course reading the article they are talking about Lithium Ion batteries.
I would just buy some Panasonic eneloops(NiMH - not an ad, just the battery I have went with after researching this quite a bit) whenever you need to buy alkaline batteries. They are about twice as expensive but are rechargeable 2000+ times, hold their charge for over a year, and don't degrade very much. Eventually all of your devices will have eneloops in them and you will stop buying batteries altogeher.
Yes, but their energy density has hardly changed and every gasoline tank beats your average LiIon battery by a factor of 10: > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density#In_chemical_rea...
https://cleantechnica.com/2020/02/19/bloombergnef-lithium-io...
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With the current silicon manufacturing processes, I'd say the end is in sight. Every node shrink is taking longer and longer and getting more and more expensive to fabricate. We've been reliant on node shrinks to push things further. That hard limit is 0.2nm (silicon atom size) we are at ~2nm gate features. It remains to be seen if we can get to that 0.2nm size, I honestly don't think we can push much further past th…
3d chips. Imagine current size with 1 million layers. Sure it will start with just a few layers. And many obstacles to be overcome like temp and delay. But one day our cpus will look like little cubes. Moore's law can continue for at least another 30 years
It does not reduce price per transistor because each layer still has to be manufactured the same way
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If musk is to believed, (and I think he's on point with this), $50/kWh will likely come within the next 5 years. So next 9 years? My expectation is beyond Tesla, the rest of the industry will have hit on that sub $50/kwh price point. That is going to make a lot of things really interesting. $2000 for a 30kWh home battery backup? Who wouldn't get one? To further this, with climate change leading to more and more extre…
> $2000 for a 30kWh home battery backup? Who wouldn't get one? Because it would be a lot more than $2k to get put it in your home. If you do the math on a Tesla powerwall, the raw cost of the battery should be right around $2k too. But it actually costs more like $8k per powerwall.
Competition is low. There are only a few players in the home battery space and they are similarly priced.
Demand is high. Even with the higher price, the wait list to get a powerwall is more than a year out.
My expectation is a few things happen over the next 9 years.
I expect that battery production ramps up to a high degree.
I expect that the EV market will eventually be saturated
With those two things, I expect that EV manufactures and the likes of tesla will end up with more batteries than than demand. When that happens, you can expect that the cost of battery products will start to tumble as everyone that manufactures batteries starts to try and sell them for whatever application will buy them.
Things that could spoil my assumptions?
Power companies might decide now is the time to really buy batteries. That could keep demand outpacing supply.
We could see new applications of batteries that aren't currently on the table, such as battery powered trains.
The EV market could not saturate. This could be due to battery production capacity severely lagging EV demand. This could be due to anything from manufacturing plants running into major issues to supply chain problems.
But, I'm an optimist. I expect to see battery tech and manufacturing continuing to build out at a fast pace.
Oh, and eventually the expensive part of a battery system won't be the batteries but rather the install cost.
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Couple of problems. First, how do you cool such a chip? Sure, you could add a bunch of transistors but the thermal costs per transistor will stay the same. Assuming similar design but adding 20 layers, how would you account for your CPU now consuming 600W? Second, The tech doesn't exist. The problem we have is that layering chips today is basically growing crystals in a controlled fashion. Defects in lower layers spo…
> Today that's already a problem (CPUs today have ~7 or 8 layers). No, I think x86 passed 14+ layers at least half a decade ago.
I just bought a 12v 200ah battery for $2300 AUD. It could be done for less, but this was a premium model. Hopefully when I purchase a second one in a year or two, it will be a bit cheaper.
I've noticed that 12V lithium iron phosphate car-battery replacements tend to be very expensive. I figure part of it is that they need a built-in BMS to keep the cells balanced, but still it seems like there should be cheaper options.