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The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

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Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

#31

Post by quickthrower2 »

squarefoot wrote: post #25

Although Li-Ion cells are getting cheaper and cheaper every year, it still is worth salvaging the good ones from depleted laptop battery packs. When a laptop battery pack is gone it's almost always the case of one, max two, 18650 elements that failed, not the whole pack. I've built some good power banks using empty shells (very cheap on Ebay, Aliexpress etc.) and fitting inside the good cells salvaged that way. They…

Does this come with a “know what you are doing” caveat? I’d be scared of creating an electric firelighter in the process.

Also assuming money is no object. Is it as good for the environment to recycle the old battery and buy a refurbed one.

Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

#33

Post by strbean »

squarefoot wrote: post #25

Although Li-Ion cells are getting cheaper and cheaper every year, it still is worth salvaging the good ones from depleted laptop battery packs. When a laptop battery pack is gone it's almost always the case of one, max two, 18650 elements that failed, not the whole pack. I've built some good power banks using empty shells (very cheap on Ebay, Aliexpress etc.) and fitting inside the good cells salvaged that way. They…

I was under the impression that mixing and matching cells (by model or by age/number of charge cycles used) can be sketchy. For example, if you have a very heavily used battery in series with new battery, everything may look okay externally, but you may end up over-discharging the older battery.

What are your thoughts on this? Haven't had any issues? Or do you take steps to mitigate it?

Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

#34

Post by cogman10 »

eloff wrote: post #6
oblio wrote: post #3

This is really cool, but could anyone familiar with the domain estimate how far we are along the S-curve? I.e. it took a long time for things to ramp up, then they accelerate really quickly and then they slow down again. Think Moore's Law, which is dead now. What would be the price estimate for 2030, for example. I think we're now around $100 per kwh (or something like that), what should we expect for 2030? $60? $20?

> Think Moore's Law, which is dead now. Look again. Moore's law in terms of single threaded performance is dead. In literal terms of number of transistors on a wafer, it's still increasing exponentially, just slower. And in terms of what mattered when people cited Moore's law, the decrease in price/performance, it's still exponential, just slower and multi core. It will end, as all exponential trends must end lest th…

With the current silicon manufacturing processes, I'd say the end is in sight. Every node shrink is taking longer and longer and getting more and more expensive to fabricate.

We've been reliant on node shrinks to push things further. That hard limit is 0.2nm (silicon atom size) we are at ~2nm gate features.

It remains to be seen if we can get to that 0.2nm size, I honestly don't think we can push much further past the 2nm size (I'd imagine 0.5nm will be the limit).

That, to me, is very much being "in sight".

Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

#35

Post by klodolph »

bin_bash wrote: post #17
eloff wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did you read the whole comment? I edited it, but that part was in there from the beginning, just in different words.

I agree with you, I just think you weren't making your case strongly enough by implying that Moore's Law referred to more than just transistor count.

> ...I just think you weren't making your case strongly enough...

I get where you are coming from, but this is one of the most aggravating types of comments.

Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

#36

Post by quickthrower2 »

stevejb wrote: post #28

I just bought a 12v 200ah battery for $2300 AUD. It could be done for less, but this was a premium model. Hopefully when I purchase a second one in a year or two, it will be a bit cheaper.

What’s the application? Sounds like the capacity of a standard $200 (yes AUD) car battery. I guess you want to hold onto that energy for a long time?

Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

#37

Post by halotrope »

ceejayoz wrote: post #32
halotrope wrote: post #27

This is nothing short of remarkable. Now lets hope that inflation does not make them 97% more expensive again.

We’ve had inflation during the entire three decades this decline took place over.

Check out lumber

Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

#38

Post by strbean »

quickthrower2 wrote: post #31
squarefoot wrote: post #25

Although Li-Ion cells are getting cheaper and cheaper every year, it still is worth salvaging the good ones from depleted laptop battery packs. When a laptop battery pack is gone it's almost always the case of one, max two, 18650 elements that failed, not the whole pack. I've built some good power banks using empty shells (very cheap on Ebay, Aliexpress etc.) and fitting inside the good cells salvaged that way. They…

Does this come with a “know what you are doing” caveat? I’d be scared of creating an electric firelighter in the process. Also assuming money is no object. Is it as good for the environment to recycle the old battery and buy a refurbed one.

I replied with some questions about the safety of this, as I had some concerns when reading it.

Aside from the issue I mentioned in reply, the only real caveat would be "know the basics of working with electronics without shorting things or electrocuting yourself" and "check out some youtube videos on rebuilding 18650 packs so you don't do it in a horribly wrong way".

Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

#40

Post by buescher »

jl6 wrote: post #23
blibble wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

you're paying for the brand, shelf position and other advertising cheap and reputable supermarket brand ones last just long

How do you tell the difference between a battery brand that is more expensive because the battery has greater capacity (“heavy duty”, “extra long life”, etc.) and a brand that is more expensive because of the brand name? Last time I looked in the supermarket there were no comparable metrics printed on the packaging.

You can't, and you don't know who is private labeling what, either. If you can get a data sheet, the better companies have more detailed data sheets.

Personally, I like the Energizer (primary, i.e. disposable) lithiums for nice things like my old HP logic dart that will sit in a drawer for a long time between uses, and Panasonic (formerly Sanyo) Eneloop NiMH batteries for most other things, and the cheapo Costco batteries for when I really don't care.

The three major US brands of alkaline batteries all have warranties for corrosion damage. I don't know of any other brands that do. I have seen corrosion in every brand of alkaline battery I've ever bought but have never tried to collect on any warranty.

“Energizer will repair or replace, at our option, any device damaged by leakage from Energizer MAX® Alkaline batteries either during the life of the battery or within two years following the full use of the battery.” https://www.energizer.com/about-batteries/battery-leakage

“Duracell guarantees its batteries against defects in materials and workmanship. Should any device be damaged due to a battery defect, we will repair or replace it at our option.” https://www.duracell.com/en-ca/technology/battery-care-use-a...

"In the unlikely event of alkaline battery leakage, any battery operated device that is damaged by RAYOVAC® Alkaline Batteries will be repaired, replaced or refunded, at our option, as long as the batteries have not expired or been mixed by expiry date and/or battery type.” http://www.rayovac.com/support/warranties-and-guarantees.asp...

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