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The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

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Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#671

Post by incrudible »

flatline wrote: post #279
bartart wrote: post #2

This is the most shocking article I have ever read in my life. I'd ask everyone to please read it because it is incredible. One thing I did not realize is that US researchers who conducted gain of function research tried to downplay and discredit the possibility of the virus originating from the wuhan lab. There was an anti-lab theory Lancet statement signed by scientists, and "Daszak had not only signed but organize…

The WaPo article where I first read about the theory said most of this stuff. I didn’t understand then why people were so quick to dismiss it - it is eerily plausible, and we just don’t have much other data to go on. But it’s like having an opinion one way or the other is a political dog whistle that puts you into one of two bins, neither of which I fit into comfortably. This article makes a decent point of that: now…

> This article makes a decent point of that: now that Trump’s racism is out of the way, maybe we can more critically examine the facts.

I highly doubt it, in most cases "Reductio ad Trumperum" will remain a useful sleight of hand. This is a different matter, being "tough on China" is a bipartisan issue, it's just about showing how the other side was "doing it wrong". For instance, you could say that Trump had "no evidence" supporting his lab leak theory.

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#672

Post by whitepaint »

sega_sai wrote: post #649
whiddershins wrote: post #629

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The rational thing was to agree the lab leak was a perfectly decent theory from the beginning. Saying you have ‘no evidence’ of something is not a reason to discard a hypothesis. On the contrary, it is a reason to figure out how to get more data, a reason to figure out how to falsify the hypothesis. It’s a common logical fallacy to conflate absence of evidence with evidence of absence.

When there is no evidence, the discussion is purely in the sphere of priors. And that doesn't make it very fruitful to discuss, as different people will likely have different priors. I think I agree that the likelihood of lab-leak was downweighted previously probably too strongly, but in the same time, I still don't see too much evidence in favor of it now.

What was the evidence of it occurring naturally in the seafood market?

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#673

Post by harryf »

loonster wrote: post #254
harryf wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not saying it's shady to provide that funding. What I'm saying is it demonstrates conflict of interest. Last year in May 5 2020 Fauci dismissed the idea that the virus came from a lab that his own organisation was providing funds to - https://www.cbsnews.com/news/anthony-fauci-wuhan-lab-coronav... Whether or not anything shady was happening, the conflict of interest is clear.

For conflict of interest, please see Fauci's wife.

Wow you weren't kidding. His wife, Christine Grady, Christine is Chief of the Department of Bioethics at the National Institutes of Health Clinical Center. She's cited in papers on "conflicts of interest" in medicine. They must have some interesting dinner table talk...

Here's an interview with her... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GhwrICQTcQg ... her opening statement (paraphrased) is "saving lives in the context of vaccines ... is about firstly maximising benefit and secondly about fairness and equity" ... make of that what you will.

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#674

Post by simonh »

okamiueru wrote: post #665
simonh wrote: post #627

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fauci was responsible for the work of large swathes of the US medical research establishment, and was questioned on that work on a daily basis. Does it make any sense to say he can't comment on the work of an organisation he runs because he runs it? In this case the lab didn't even work for him, it just got some small amount of funding from his organisation's budget but he had no say in it's operations. So he can com…

Why is disclosure of potential conflict of interest made out to be such a high bar? And why do you put arguments forth that did not exist in what you replied to? > Does it make any sense to say he can't comment on the work of an organisation he runs because he runs it? Is a straw man argument, because what was said was that the conflict of interest should have been disclosed. And, not that he cannot make a comment.

Ok, that's fair, but what I'm saying is no reasonable person would consider Fauci to be an independent observer of any of this. That's just not his role.

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#675

Post by stevenhuang »

sbagel wrote: post #587

The amount of wildly delusional oppression complex in this thread is staggering, HN has really gone downhill. On the media 'not taking it seriously' - because there was no evidence whatsoever outside of conjecture and it was being pushed heavily by misinfo merchants. No grand conspiracy. Skepticism is a good default approach to take for info heavily pushed by such sources with no solid evidence. There were tons of ar…

You must not have been paying attention.

Here's one case of someone stating the true goals of those who promote the lab leak hypothesis is to promote anti Asian sentiments...

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26547263

It's hard to believe how one can reach such a daft conclusion.

There are many others.

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#676

Post by calsy »

bananapub wrote: post #635
dosman33 wrote: post #322

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Separate from the article, the damming thing in his email release is the strong suggestion that he knew it was engineered early on and may have participated in hiding this fact.

er, who has shown any evidence at all that covid-19 was "engineered"? this whole discussion is about the unproven possibility that it leaked from a lab.

That emails he received early 2020 from fellow scientists stating covid-19 had identifiable traits of being engineered.

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#678

Post by calsy »

Fomite wrote: post #599
mc32 wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The other astonishing things is the sudden about face by the media. I'm glad they allowed themselves the liberty of looking at alternative origins. But... they were SO adamant and complicit in any discussion about alternative theories being shut down under the guise of conspiracy, Trumpism, anti-China, etc. (These are the same people who have no qualms about attributing anything to Russia even if evidence is thin, so…

An alternative explanation is that the other COVID-19 narrative - that vaccines work, but those who are hesitant are essentially beyond convincing, and this is going to be both a long and boring years long slog to control globally and longer to find the origin - makes for exceedingly boring news. On the other hand, talking about "If X is true, then..." and spending the rest of the section talking about the lab leak h…

Where has ANYONE suggested lab leak is the 'truth' or they have a smoking gun. The news does not exclusively report on COVID either.

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#680

Post by koolba »

stef25 wrote: post #640
thu2111 wrote: post #609

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And I certainly don't see the conflict of interest - what was Fauci gaining? His continued role? Yes. Obviously you don't put an arsonist in charge of fighting fires, so if this information had come out early last year then he would have lost not only his role much sooner, but also his social status and career. If what's coming out now came out last year, Trump's replacement of him with Scott Atlas would have been mo…

This is a global pandemic that came out of China. In the worst possible case, Fauci hid the fact that an org he's involved in donated a minuscule portion of its budget to the lab from where the virus leaked due to incompetence. It's not like he took the vial home for lulz and dropped it on the subway. His role in the origin of this thing is so small it's irrelevant. The only thing that's up for discussion is that he…

> This is a global pandemic that came out of China. In the worst possible case, Fauci hid the fact that an org he's involved in donated a minuscule portion of its budget to the lab from where the virus leaked due to incompetence.

> It's not like he took the vial home for lulz and dropped it on the subway. His role in the origin of this thing is so small it's irrelevant.

By dissuading an investigation into the cause at the time, he might have shot down our only chance of ever knowing for sure. I sure as hell don't trust China to be truthful about it. There's no incentive on their part.

> The only thing that's up for discussion is that he may not have been 100% correct during one of his many public statements, hardly something that can be held against him considering the shitcreek the whole world is in.

He's been spreading mixed and misinformation for months and possibly lying to Congress. Many give him the benefit of the doubt by saying that he either did not know or he did it in the interests of the public as a whole (ex: We need the N95 masks so let's lie and say nobody else does). Neither is acceptable to some of us.

> Personally I'd give the guy some credit for everything he's done right, I mean he's been at it since 1968.

Past good behavior doesn't get you out of a trial. At best it's a factor during sentencing.

> What is there to gain by nailing him to the cross, or pointing out his income and book deals?

The book deal looks like a last minute cash grab before he gets sacked.

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