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The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

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Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#491

Post by _y5hn »

rayiner wrote: post #318
arrosenberg wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not a conflict of interest because Dr. Fauci wasn't gaining anything. The agency he is head of is specifically interested in infectious disease and has a large budget for grants. $120K per year pays for a couple plate of genetic samples and tech time to run them. Maybe in China you can run a few more for that cost, I don't know. As head of that agency, it's also his job to share his professional opinion with the…

Avoiding reputation and harm is certainly a major incentive, especially for a scientist, leading to a conflict of interest.

Setup for failure it is, then.

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#492

Post by 40four »

ridaj wrote: post #473
TheBigSalad wrote: post #377

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What makes you think it's less probable than natural origins? The wet market has probably been there for 1,000 years and this hasn't happened. Compared to the virus appearing in one of 3 labs in the world that would be studying it.

The Wuhan wet market episode, in retrospect, was almost certainly a superspreading event rather than a patient zero situation. The virus's effects are so variable from person to person (lots of asymptomatic carriers, people who just get a little cold, symptoms undistinguishable from the flu) that it was almost certainly already circulating in Wuhan unnoticed, until it became big enough to be hard not to notice. Consi…

Guys, a bit of a tangent if I may? This is not normally my lane, but I really wish we could get over this term ‘wet market’. From a western point of view if you really think about it, it’s derogatory, and likely based in racial paranoia.

We’ve all heard this term time and time again in the media. But after looking into it more, it’s not really accurate. Just call it a market. Or a farmers market as we call them in America.

There is nothing special or weird about the market in Wuhan that deserves the ‘wet’ moniker. You wouldn’t call your local farmers market a ‘wet’ market. It’s just something we all heard one time in the news and kept repeating it without much thought.

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#493

Post by markkanof »

TheBigSalad wrote: post #371
tmp404 wrote: post #155

While this article is quite illuminating on the political side of the lab leak theory, on the evidence side it's mostly a rehash of some long-standing speculations. The only recent evidence it contains is the fact that 3 researchers from WIV sought hospital care back in autumn of 2019 with symptoms similar to COVID. However, this piece of evidence is hardly consequential without further details: - First, most common…

It would be interesting to know how many scientists there are and how often they are admitted to the hospital. Then you could say how likely or unlikely the event was. Obviously there would be other factors like season, etc. But maybe this is a big outlier. We can't say without more numbers.

I’ve also been curious what hospital these scientists went to. You would think that they might have some sort of self contained medical unit for when any researchers at these types of facilities get sick. Just to make absolutely sure they aren’t sick with something particularly dangerous that they picked up at work.

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#494

Post by badmadrad »

knowaveragejoe wrote: post #321
fragileone wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except he was proven right yet again that social media and old media orgs will censor others and lie to the public when it fits their political agenda.

> proven right yet again Really depressing to hear this nonsense on HN of all places.

God forbid people that don't share your politics coexist on a tech forum with you.

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#495

Post by corty »

tootie wrote: post #96
bartart wrote: post #2

This is the most shocking article I have ever read in my life. I'd ask everyone to please read it because it is incredible. One thing I did not realize is that US researchers who conducted gain of function research tried to downplay and discredit the possibility of the virus originating from the wuhan lab. There was an anti-lab theory Lancet statement signed by scientists, and "Daszak had not only signed but organize…

I don't think lab workers getting sick is really a useful data point. People get sick all the time. Could have very easily been seasonal flu or whatever. It also seems The Lancet letter doesn't actual address the question of lab leak. Only that it wasn't engineered. That was a pretty hot conspiracy theory at the time and one that remains far fetched. They didn't positively say it couldn't be a naturally occurring vir…

Lab workers getting sick should be a starting point to begin analyzing archived blood samples for instance. Also, you don't usually visit a hospital for seasonal flu. And three people from the same lab at the same time suggests a wider outbreak in the lab. Even if it were the seasonal flu, it would have warranted a wider investigation, given what that lab was working on.

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#496

Post by _y5hn »

cbradford wrote: post #161
disgrunt wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's not a conflict of interest because Dr. Fauci wasn't gaining anything. The agency he is head of is specifically interested in infectious disease and has a large budget for grants. $120K per year pays for a couple plate of genetic samples and tech time to run them. Maybe in China you can run a few more for that cost, I don't know. So it is not a conflict of interest because of the sum of money? Someone doesn't n…

Agree. Do not underplay the value of status and power for people like Faucci. He needed to downplay to keep his grip on both

Who are "people like Faucci", successful people regarded as experts?

We do have representatives that are meant to have final say, but they went AWOL mentally.

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#497

Post by Cyberthal »

chickenmonkey wrote: post #302
Cyberthal wrote: post #265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

The idea of a lab leak could either mean that legitimate research was happening on this virus and it got accidentally leaked, or that the virus was being prepared as a bio-weapon and was intentionally or unintentionally released. The reason I think those scientists disavowed the lab leak theory initially was to avoid confusion between whether COVID-19 was an intentional bio-attack by China as many believed then and w…

Oh, so the idea that it was an intentional bio-attack is what's "racist".

Why? Xi and the top leadership of the CCP/PLA are not a race, they're an oligarchy, maybe monarchy.

They receive many benefits from a pandemic, such as cover to crack down on rebellion in Hong Kong, a counter to Western propaganda for open societies, an excuse for economic recession.

I've read that the PLA believes that plagues such as SARS and Swine Flu are actually US bioweapons. That would make COVID19 merely symmetrical retaliation. The PLA also believes the USA is fomenting dissent and rebellion in China's territory to divide her. This is casus belli.

The US oligarchy cynically cornered Japan into attacking Pearl Harbor and ultimately nuked two Japanese cities while Japan tried to surrender. The USA also firebombed Dresden, a refugee city. Are these facts racist?

If you insist that the idea of China making an unrestricted biowarfare attack is so unprovoked and irrational that the mere thought is motivated purely by racial bigotry, then guess what? If it turns out the PLA really is guilty, you have condemned China as the wholly evil side. Shall we declare a second Pearl Harbor and demand unconditional surrender?

I certainly won't enlist for that war. I suspect China would happily leave the USA alone if the USA returned the favor. The Pacific is wide and deep.

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#498

Post by GavinMcG »

ramraj07 wrote: post #357
bartart wrote: post #2

This is the most shocking article I have ever read in my life. I'd ask everyone to please read it because it is incredible. One thing I did not realize is that US researchers who conducted gain of function research tried to downplay and discredit the possibility of the virus originating from the wuhan lab. There was an anti-lab theory Lancet statement signed by scientists, and "Daszak had not only signed but organize…

This New York mag article [1] published eons ago already made it clear to any sane biologist that all you mentioned are important things to consider. However the issue is sane biologists or scientists in general are actually in extreme short supply, the vast majority are often under the delusion that they “understand the system” better than they actually do. They also are often knowingly and unknowingly more interest…

Trump didn't exactly follow Fauci's advice, so it's odd that you'd blame Fauci's "method of approaching pandemics" for "this mess."

Was there some other, better, established method?

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#499

Post by _y5hn »

JesseMReeves wrote: post #478
um_ya wrote: post #314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think this whole thing is a great example of why you don't ban alternative viewpoints, even if considered "conspiracy theories". Zerohedge was reporting this early on, and Twitter banned them for "misinformation".

That newspaper scene from Men in Black. I’ve relived it a number of times over the past year particularly. Local mainstream “fact checkers” have even called Covid-19 a “right-wing conspiracy theory” in early 2020.

People were dying of covid in hospital beds, still believing the virus is fake narrative.

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#500

Post by ameetgaitonde »

mc32 wrote: post #39
bartart wrote: post #2

This is the most shocking article I have ever read in my life. I'd ask everyone to please read it because it is incredible. One thing I did not realize is that US researchers who conducted gain of function research tried to downplay and discredit the possibility of the virus originating from the wuhan lab. There was an anti-lab theory Lancet statement signed by scientists, and "Daszak had not only signed but organize…

The other astonishing things is the sudden about face by the media. I'm glad they allowed themselves the liberty of looking at alternative origins. But... they were SO adamant and complicit in any discussion about alternative theories being shut down under the guise of conspiracy, Trumpism, anti-China, etc. (These are the same people who have no qualms about attributing anything to Russia even if evidence is thin, so…

The Fauci emails were published from an FOIA request, not leaked.
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