The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins • Hacker News Board

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#481

Post by dbt00 » Fri, Jun 04, 2021, 5:22 AM UTC

jeswin wrote: post #342

Gatsky wrote: post #164

Assuming the chance of a lab leak is non-zero, it is worth considering how this will ever end. - If there was any hard evidence actually proving they had SARS-CoV-2 in the lab before the pandemic, it will be long gone. Only an independent full access forensic level investigation would ever find any sign that evidence was destroyed, and that is never going to happen. - It seems extremely unlikely to me that anyone fro…

Evidence could come from communications. Such a large scale coverup would have required quite a lot of exchanges. Even with China being somewhat opaque and inaccessible to foreign intelligence, there could be digital trails.

You can't assume a coverup proves a crime, though. Is it bad? Yes. Do agents of totalitarian governments cover things up routinely because they assume something bad was done or they don't want to be blamed for it, even if no wrongdoing was behind it? Yes.

(i.e. politically punished by the west for covering up facts is fine but scientifically concluding this proves a leak is not.)

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#482

Post by [deleted] » Fri, Jun 04, 2021, 5:23 AM UTC

Cyberthal wrote: post #265

raphlinus wrote: post #130

This is a good article. There's been so much junk over the past couple of weeks or so that it's been very frustrating. I've mostly been watching the debate unfold on Twitter, and it's confirmed for me that Twitter is a terrible place for real intellectually-curious discussion (probably social media in general). I've been wondering certain things, especially why Marc Lipsitch (one of the most consistently trustworthy…

[flagged]

[deleted]

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#483

Post by estaseuropano » Fri, Jun 04, 2021, 5:23 AM UTC

bglazer wrote: post #323

tmp404 wrote: post #155

While this article is quite illuminating on the political side of the lab leak theory, on the evidence side it's mostly a rehash of some long-standing speculations. The only recent evidence it contains is the fact that 3 researchers from WIV sought hospital care back in autumn of 2019 with symptoms similar to COVID. However, this piece of evidence is hardly consequential without further details: - First, most common…

I'm quite astounded and confused at the sudden shift in discourse towards assuming that the lab leak theory must be true. It's not so much the theory itself that's surprising. Lab leak remains plausible but less probable then natural origins. The sudden shift is just baffling to me though. This huge new furor is due to anonymous CIA sources saying three people got sick? That's extremely tenuous evidence, as you state…

Natural origin and lab leak are in no way exclusive. The lab was collecting viruses and creating new ones - either one could have leaked.

I don't have strong views as it's incredibly difficult to prove a negative (that it was not a leak), essentially you would have to identify and prove exactly the actual vector and even then it might be difficult to be conclusive. Lab leak seems however like a very likely scenario and it is crazy how people try to dismiss it without any actual evidence either way - and China's approach to handling the investigation and information flow definitely should cause anyone to be suspicious.

I guess at this stage thr only way we cam find out is if in 10-20 years there's a whistleblower from the lab.

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#484

Post by thebigman433 » Fri, Jun 04, 2021, 5:23 AM UTC

bglazer wrote: post #323

tmp404 wrote: post #155

While this article is quite illuminating on the political side of the lab leak theory, on the evidence side it's mostly a rehash of some long-standing speculations. The only recent evidence it contains is the fact that 3 researchers from WIV sought hospital care back in autumn of 2019 with symptoms similar to COVID. However, this piece of evidence is hardly consequential without further details: - First, most common…

I'm quite astounded and confused at the sudden shift in discourse towards assuming that the lab leak theory must be true. It's not so much the theory itself that's surprising. Lab leak remains plausible but less probable then natural origins. The sudden shift is just baffling to me though. This huge new furor is due to anonymous CIA sources saying three people got sick? That's extremely tenuous evidence, as you state…

> This seems more like people declaring victory because they're finally getting a hint of public support for their suspicions, rather than some truly damning evidence.

I think this is the main thing driving these comments. Instead of being totally against the idea, these articles are providing a shred of hope (despite not having any new proof as far as I can tell) for the people who are locked in on the lab leak theory. Definitely people getting overexcited about it and trying to claim they were right the whole time and were being "censored".

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#485

Post by mountainboy » Fri, Jun 04, 2021, 5:23 AM UTC

People have been discussing a possible lab leak for well over a year. For the most part commenters here on hackernews have been close-minded, arrogant, dismissive and probably wrong. disgusting.

I don't actually care much about the lab leak hypothesis. So I don't have a dog in that particular fight. I think contagion itself is a myth. See the work of Dr. Tom Cowan if you are interested. I just don't like the arrogant attitude I see on display here all the time, on so many topics. People wielding beliefs, opinions, and "scientific consensus" as if they were facts, and there is nothing left to discover about biology or wider sciences.

Guess what people, human understanding of the natural world is moved forward by those who DO NOT AGREE with scientific consensus of the day. The heretics are the interesting ones to follow, not the rest of you lot.

I'm quite frankly glad to see a bunch of you eating crow right now. You should.

Good day.

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#486

Post by corty » Fri, Jun 04, 2021, 5:24 AM UTC

rhodozelia wrote: post #319

peter422 wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Was every other emerging virus also created in a lab? SARS? MERS? Influenza? Polio? The highest probability is this virus originated like every other virus in history.

The lab leak theory doesn’t imply that the virus was created, or gain of functioned, in the lab, merely that it was studied there and escaped. The lab leak theory doesn’t imply unnatural origins.

An example of this would be the Marburg virus (unrelated to CoVs): leaked from a lab, but of natural origin, through an infected lab animal caught in the wild

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#487

Post by badmadrad » Fri, Jun 04, 2021, 5:25 AM UTC

adrr wrote: post #227

fragileone wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Donald Trump =/= his employees

Nominated positions means he has direct control of them. He can fire and replace them at anytime.

If he did the media would say he was a madman firing people for not believing a conspiracy theory. He can't win with you folks.

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#488

Post by krrrh » Fri, Jun 04, 2021, 5:26 AM UTC

XorNot wrote: post #63

mc32 wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So when we find Anthrax outside its normal "range" but close to a lab we can just say, yeah, no, while it's not endemic to this location it is 1000 miles away, so nothing to worry about? Oh, and never mind the lab.

Or you know, 2 days drive depending on road conditions and trucking shipment along the route to a major metropolis. This is an argument from incredulity.

Doesn’t it seem likelier that zoonotic transmission from an animal in Yunnan would infect a local and result in an initial local outbreak, which we have no evidence of? What do you think the ratio of locals in Yunnan are to visitors from Wuhan or potential visitors to Wuhan are at any given time? 100 to 1, 1000 to 1? I have no idea, but excuse the incredulity. It’s less likely that a virus from Yunnan would break out somewhere other than Yunnan, perhaps by a couple of orders of magnitude or more.

I mean sure, anything’s possible, but we have only circumstantial evidence right now and this observation isn’t a smoking gun, but it ain’t worth nothing.

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#489

Post by dang » Fri, Jun 04, 2021, 5:26 AM UTC

extratinypp wrote: post #474

dang wrote: post #459

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What you did in this thread (posting dozens of copies of the same comment) was vandalism. I've banned the account. You needn't have wondered why your comment was flagged if you had read the site guidelines before posting it. The users who flagged it were obviously correct to do so. What you did after that was beyond the pale. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

> The users who flagged it were obviously correct CCP master! You are being naive and your site is abused. But I'll stop. Do check how fast the flags were. This was scripted. Also check the IPs for VPN usage and entropy between the downvotes. Taiwan is a country. Dare say it?

I already checked. The flaggers were well established, responsible HN users who understood exactly which site guidelines you were violating. This "communist agent" stuff is childish. Please stop now.

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#490

Post by sen » Fri, Jun 04, 2021, 5:27 AM UTC

justicezyx wrote: post #397

SV_BubbleTime wrote: post #365

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does no one else remember the videos out of China with people laying dead in the streets, falling over as they walked, convulsing behind the steering wheels of cars? Who paid for all that acting, scenes, and filming and then have it presented as “news”? CCP owns Hong Kong, that was over in 1997, the only surprising thing about HK is that China waited this long to make it better known. Now... The country of Taiwan on…

> Does no one else remember the videos out of China with people laying dead in the streets, falling over as they walked, convulsing behind the steering wheels of cars? Could you provide a link? I never saw such video on YouTube.

I saw the videos but they weren’t on YouTube. There were pastebins listing dozens of links to videos and photos BUT there was also zero proof it was connected to the virus or any timestamps, so who knows.