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China allows couples to have three children

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Re: China allows couples to have three children

#91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

50% B + 25% GB + 25% GG = 0.75 B + 0.75 G. Can you think of a law ("stopping rule") that could even get the expected number of boys higher than the expected number of girls?

For gambling it would would work if you do a "double or nothing" type of bet. Unfortunately, you'll be quickly rate limited by birth capacity, even if you somehow manage to double the amount of children per birth. Also, asymptotically, you'll still be around a 50% split.

Assuming no selective-abortion shenanigans, every child you have is expected 50% male, 50% female (barring e.g. unusual men who only produce sperm of one gender—I think that exists but is extremely rare), so there's no possible strategy that leads to an uneven gender split, probability-wise.

But I think there were selective-abortion shenanigans, and that the policy was effectively in response to them. If we assume each family wants, as its first objective, to maximize the number of sons, and, as its second objective, to maximize the number of daughters, then each selective-aborting family would have exactly one daughter followed by one son under such a policy.

Re: China allows couples to have three children

#92
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is another graph here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_China#/media/F... Which shows a massive male surplus particularly in the young demographics, way larger than you would biologically expect. How can we claim this policy has no effect if clearly people are still killing female infants?

Wasn’t their some policy saying that rural mothers could have a second child if their first was a girl? If they each had the maximum number of children, it would lead to an average of about 1 boy and 0.75 girls per rural mother.

Yes, the article saying the one child policy remained untill2016 is an oversimplification. There were already exceptions introduced including when both parents had never had any siblings.

Re: China allows couples to have three children

#93

After the communist "land reform", the Chinese communist party / Chinese Government owns all the land in China. Now, local governments use land control and land sales as their major source of revenue. The end result is that vast majority of Chinese people live in small apartments, which are designed for 1 couple + 1 kid families. In big cities, average apartment size is around 60-80 sqm. In small cities, it could be…

Pardon me, but how is 100-120 sqm small? 60 sqm is small for 4 people yes, but everything else subject to how rooms are organized. We had 105 sqm growing up with 5 people and we had a very large living room + 4 bed rooms, no second bath room though.

Re: China allows couples to have three children

#94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you were joking, but totalitarian regimes have done this before (Romania's orphan crisis was the result of similar policies, iirc). The poverty/immigration dance - if you reduce poverty, women have less children. Eventually you reach the point where you need to allow immigration to provide enough workers to keep your aging population from starving. Immigration is an existential threat if your country is based…

China is not a totalitarian regime - you shouldn't believe all the propaganda out there, you should actually go there yourself and you'll find that you can live your life quite normally and happily. China's identity isn't based on a single ethnic identity - the various restrictions (such as the now-3-child-policy, and permanent immigration between cities) apply to everyone. In fact ethnic minorities generally get pre…

I lived in China, in Shanghai, near the French Concession, speak Mandarin, read 汉字,(not fluently, but HSK5-6), and have been to pretty much every province in China. About as privileged as you can be as an ex-pat, and I can still say, IMHO, it's pretty totalitarian.

Totalitarian: "relating to a system of government that is centralized and dictatorial and requires complete subservience to the state."

Is China centralized? Yes, it has a top down system, top-down industrial policy, top-down internet policy, state owned enterprises (30% of economy), state-owned media, etc.

Is China dictatorial? You can talk all you want about the Politburo Standing Committee sharing power, but Xi Jinping essentially holds total power (now for life with no term expiration), and even if Li Keqiang took power, we all know it was would be like Putin and Medvedev, with Xi still controlling, otherwise there would have been no reason for removing term limits for Xi. Xi controls the PLA loyalty, and he could arrest Li Keqiang or people from his faction if he wanted.

"you can live your life quite normally and happily."

As long as you don't stick out, or criticize the government. Ask the Hong Kongnese. Or if you prefer, ask Feng Ti Mo, who was invited for a cup of Tea with the gestapo because she sang the Chinese National Anthem in a way that displeased the government, and is now forced to carry Communist Youth League content on her streaming channels. Or ask Jack Ma, who offered a milquetoast criticism of out-of-date financial regulatory framework in China and found himself with a Tea date with the gestapo. (The analogy here would be Colin Kalpernick being held by the CIA, and then forced to make pro-Trump speeches at football openings, or Elon Musk criticizing the SEC, and being told the SpaceX IPO is cancelled)

In other words, sit down, shut up, keep your head down, and you'll be ok.

Oh, and woe unto you if you want to access internet outside of China, and waste time everyday trying to find which VPN server you can connect to that isn't blocked. The sum total knowledge of mankind is now available to most people on the planet, but foolishly blocked in the Mainland.

"In fact ethnic minorities generally get preferential treatment - e.g. looser restrictions, affirmative action in various places such as state examinations". Yes, and I hear and see Han complaining all the time about Uighurs, Tibetans, and Miao, etc getting preferential treatment on the Gaokao, which is very much like whites and asians in the US complaining about affirmative action.

But does that make up for the abuse? Does the US government setting up Affirmative Action programs make up for a terrible criminal justice system biased against African Americans, or police brutality against African Americans? So the Chinese government has affirmative action for ethnic minorities, that makes any other brutal suppression they do in Xinjiang, Tibet, Hong Kong, or Inner Mongolia A-OK?

Is repression over anyone criticizing the central government publicly (and being loud enough to be noticed) made up for by marvelous infrastructure projects? Is this the price of high speed rail? Is it not possible to have freedom to compare Xi Jinping with Winnie the Pooh, and also have High Speed Rail and Shiny new airports?

Look, I don't hate China, otherwise I wouldn't have traveled all over it, learned Mandarin, and lived there. But I criticize US government policy HARSHLY, especially foreign policy, and I believe people have a right to criticize their government, and that China would be a much better agent for positive change in the world if it could shed the legacy of Mao, and move on to become a more open society, even going back to Deng-era policies would be better than the neo-fascist/nationalism that Xi is promoting these days.

The last 4 years saw rising nationalism in the US, and it has also been rising in Europe and in China. This is not good. We're trying to tame out nationalist Trump-wing here, and IMHO, Xi's pursuit of stroking nationalist sentiment is creating additional danger.

It all needs to stop.

Re: China allows couples to have three children

#95
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is still a male surplus and culturally people still prefer to have boys because they carry their family name. Girls are married out of the family and if your one child is a girl there will be nobody to look after you in your old age.

>> there will be nobody to look after you in your old age. What a sick, selfish society. If you can't take care of yourself maybe it's time to go?

What a sick little comment. The world is a lot larger than the rich West and historically children were what we have - in some wealthy places - a social security system for. But in many places where the state is barely functional and family ties are strong children tend to take care of their elders, because that's how it's been traditionally. The best way to reduce that factor in how many children people have is to up the standard of living, which more or less automatically reduces the number of children people will have because they no longer need to worry that much about their old age.

On another note: those societies have - of necessity - much stronger family ties than that same rich West, so something valuable is lost along with the social needs.

Re: China allows couples to have three children

#96
post #17

There is some question on whether the one-child policy was even needed. If you look at a graph of "children per mother" chart before and after the original policy went into effect, it's quite evident that rates were dropping for more than a decade beforehand: * https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2016/october/china... * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Birth_rate_in_China.svg * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/O…

There is another graph here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_China#/media/F... Which shows a massive male surplus particularly in the young demographics, way larger than you would biologically expect. How can we claim this policy has no effect if clearly people are still killing female infants?

Interesting how the assertion that Chinese people kill infant girls en masse goes completely unchallenged without nuance on this site.

Re: China allows couples to have three children

#97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China internally makes a big deal about their 56 ethnic groups, living happily in harmony: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethnic_minorities_in_China And woe betide anyone who dares be less than harmonious about being ruled by their Han big brother.

You seem to have a bit of sour grapes that a non-Western country dares to talk positively about their own policies. You should understand that translations often lose some cultural context, so when you have a prejudice against the English word "harmonious", understand that the Chinese equivalent is used much more freely in everyday speech. "Solidarity" might have been a better translation. -- Reply to the comment bel…

I've been to Tibet, and the endless barrage of slogans and posters celebrating 和谐 and 西藏各族人民的幸福生活 are there for a reason.

Re: China allows couples to have three children

#98

The problem with China right now is the 4-2-1 problem. Because of their one child policy, you have a family generation consisting of 4 people (grandparents), followed by 2 people (parents), followed by 1 person. So now they are way on their way to an demographic crisis, where most people will be old.

Another result of this, is that males outnumber females, so there’s a lot of single males unable to find a partner. This is because parents generally preferred boys as their only child.

Yeah, however, the young generation is putting off their marriage year by year as in developed world. I can see the trend where people choose not to marry someone and/or not to have kids is picking up though may not be the mainstream any time soon.

Partly because costs have been high, but also people find their interests elsewhere other than the traditional path.

Re: China allows couples to have three children

#99

Gotta love HN comment section on a story such as this. People here solving math problems more than questioning the power of a government to tell people how many children they are ALLOWED to have.

>the power of a government

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monopoly_on_violence

>Robert Hinrichs Bates argues that the state itself has no violent power; rather, the people hold all the power of coercion to ensure that order and other equilibriums hold up.

Should we be discussing this?

Re: China allows couples to have three children

#100
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is another graph here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_China#/media/F... Which shows a massive male surplus particularly in the young demographics, way larger than you would biologically expect. How can we claim this policy has no effect if clearly people are still killing female infants?

Interesting how the assertion that Chinese people kill infant girls en masse goes completely unchallenged without nuance on this site.

Are there any other explanations for the massive male surplus?
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