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Amazon refused to refund $7k after shipping an empty box instead of a Sony A1

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Re: Amazon refused to refund $7k after shipping an empty box instead of a Sony A1

#411

Post by an_opabinia »

ncfausti wrote: post #398
an_opabinia wrote: post #378

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm afraid of being downvoted, but the algorithm for an Amazon return looks something like: Your LTV = Forecasting total revenue from your transactions so far Revenue = The sum of your past transactions Refund? = LTV - Revenue - Refund Cost > 0 This is a much simpler, much more logical model. It appears everywhere, like with credit card disputes or when you get service discounts to not leave. Because when you don't g…

Thanks for this, very informative. So LTV is forecasted "lifetime value". So, if I'm 30, they'll estimate ~50 years of revenue going forward from me and use this as LTV?

> So, if I'm 30, they'll estimate ~50 years of revenue going forward from me and use this as LTV?

No. If you're 30, they might (or might not) group you with other 30 year olds, if that's important, and run this model against you all as a group. But you don't punch in "he has 50 years left to live" in the model. The model doesn't know any of that, it just knows your transaction history, and it works better when the population of histories are more similar than dissimilar. Though it's also very effective when run against a large population too.

Re: Amazon refused to refund $7k after shipping an empty box instead of a Sony A1

#412

Post by Spooky23 »

an_opabinia wrote: post #378
ageitgey wrote: post #215

Like most people, I've ordered a lot of packages (hundreds?) on Amazon and almost never had a problem. In the rare case of a problem, Amazon would instantly refund me. But almost all those orders are under $1000. Everything changes when you have a problem with an expensive order. Amazon has a price threshold where the support system is different and the normal CS people are powerless. During lockdown, I ordered a Son…

I'm afraid of being downvoted, but the algorithm for an Amazon return looks something like: Your LTV = Forecasting total revenue from your transactions so far Revenue = The sum of your past transactions Refund? = LTV - Revenue - Refund Cost > 0 This is a much simpler, much more logical model. It appears everywhere, like with credit card disputes or when you get service discounts to not leave. Because when you don't g…

I think you’re right that is the core of the model. Good customers always get treated better than Joe Rando.

But Amazon has more information and uses that too. They know loss rates by zip code or by block by carrier.

Usually items I order for them that are higher shrink risk don’t go through their Amazon distribution network and come UPS or USPS. Anecdotally, I’ve noticed those returns are easier — they probably dump cost on the 3rd party shipper.

Re: Amazon refused to refund $7k after shipping an empty box instead of a Sony A1

#413

Post by draw_down »

I can’t relate to people that have never had a problem with Amazon. Years back I had a string of 3 or 4 purchases that I would hear nothing about, until they would just refund me one day without ever sending the item. I also bought an air conditioner right before a heat wave and they just never shipped it. (I live in a west coast city, not a place that’s hard to ship to.) I was done after that.

Amazon just isn’t worth dealing with. You can buy it from someone else.

Re: Amazon refused to refund $7k after shipping an empty box instead of a Sony A1

#414

Post by [deleted] »

franga2000 wrote: post #407
an_opabinia wrote: post #378

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm afraid of being downvoted, but the algorithm for an Amazon return looks something like: Your LTV = Forecasting total revenue from your transactions so far Revenue = The sum of your past transactions Refund? = LTV - Revenue - Refund Cost > 0 This is a much simpler, much more logical model. It appears everywhere, like with credit card disputes or when you get service discounts to not leave. Because when you don't g…

> Like how else could it work? They investigate everything, spending more money than the cost of the refund? Is anyone actually arguing for fewer "easy refunds" and more investigation? I though the point was that given the fact that most of their refunds are handled algorithmically, they have plenty of time to handle the rest of the refunds quickly and with care. If I don't get my order, I want my money back. If the…

[deleted]

Re: Amazon refused to refund $7k after shipping an empty box instead of a Sony A1

#415

Post by tlogan »

an_opabinia wrote: post #378
ageitgey wrote: post #215

Like most people, I've ordered a lot of packages (hundreds?) on Amazon and almost never had a problem. In the rare case of a problem, Amazon would instantly refund me. But almost all those orders are under $1000. Everything changes when you have a problem with an expensive order. Amazon has a price threshold where the support system is different and the normal CS people are powerless. During lockdown, I ordered a Son…

I'm afraid of being downvoted, but the algorithm for an Amazon return looks something like: Your LTV = Forecasting total revenue from your transactions so far Revenue = The sum of your past transactions Refund? = LTV - Revenue - Refund Cost > 0 This is a much simpler, much more logical model. It appears everywhere, like with credit card disputes or when you get service discounts to not leave. Because when you don't g…

This is 100% correct. Even our small business have rules like this: good customers will get refunds, discounts, etc. Bad ones (pathological ones) - we just try to get rid of them ASAP and no refunds. Because we do not want them to use our service anyway.

At the very beginning we were thinking that good vs bad should also include our support costs - not just LTV. But that is amazingly correlated: high LTV means that user has very low support cost (or at least a very nice people to work with).

It is very simple.

Re: Amazon refused to refund $7k after shipping an empty box instead of a Sony A1

#416

Post by toomuchtodo »

menzoic wrote: post #353
rkalla wrote: post #315

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Like others have said - be careful with this option - there are a LOT Of examples in the Google Fi forums about people doing a chargeback with Google because of charges they felt were fair or fraudulent via Google Fi, and next thing they know their Google Account (Photos, Docs, Email, etc.) is disabled. I would watch the same thing with Amazon (Music, Alexa, Photos, AWS, etc.)

Backup everything elsewhere regularly https://zapier.com/apps/dropbox/integrations/google-drive

You’d want to use frequent Google Takeout for backups of all of your data.

Re: Amazon refused to refund $7k after shipping an empty box instead of a Sony A1

#417

Post by TheRealPomax »

This sounds like what should happen, irrespective of the seller?

You can claim you got an empty box, but everyone's on the internet here, and pictures of an empty box with indignation as guide text gets you fake internet points on every social media site.

That alone isn't enough for any seller to take your claim as true until you take the necessary steps that come with "I've been defrauded", like filing that credit card dispute and police report. Which they did, after which Amazon accepted the dispute, so... where's the news angle here? "Store honours a $7k claim without questioning it" would almost be more newsworthy.

Re: Amazon refused to refund $7k after shipping an empty box instead of a Sony A1

#418

Post by toomuchtodo »

s_fischer wrote: post #381
kevinmchugh wrote: post #343

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As I've moved more of my shopping away from Amazon I've noticed that lots and lots of online retailers are now competitive on the logistics side. Fast shipping is now table stakes.

I'll go one further and say that some are actually quicker than Amazon. I've recently bought two different items from bestbuy.com that I would have normally bought from Amazon when prime shipping actually took two days. In both cases bestbuy's free shipping could get the items to my house 1 day quicker than amazon so I went with them.

Best Buy, in some cases, fulfills using Geek Squad folks delivering locally. Was very cool to order two SSDs in the morning and have them show up a few hours later.

Re: Amazon refused to refund $7k after shipping an empty box instead of a Sony A1

#419

Post by FpUser »

rkalla wrote: post #315
nigerian1981 wrote: post #290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’ve found my credit card company, American Express to be great for getting refunds in cases like this and always use my credit card for larger purchases.

Like others have said - be careful with this option - there are a LOT Of examples in the Google Fi forums about people doing a chargeback with Google because of charges they felt were fair or fraudulent via Google Fi, and next thing they know their Google Account (Photos, Docs, Email, etc.) is disabled. I would watch the same thing with Amazon (Music, Alexa, Photos, AWS, etc.)

This is why I do not use gmail or any other online services from any vendor which might restrict me from doing things I do. My online dependency is limited to Netflix and Amazon. Amazon is easily replaceable. As for Netflix - there are other services and as an alternatives I'll just read more books. I might miss Google Gearch and Youtube but from my experiments those can be used in anonymous mode. For people who earn money on Youtube it is of course very different.

Re: Amazon refused to refund $7k after shipping an empty box instead of a Sony A1

#420

Post by gpm »

bjornjajayaja wrote: post #288
ageitgey wrote: post #215

Like most people, I've ordered a lot of packages (hundreds?) on Amazon and almost never had a problem. In the rare case of a problem, Amazon would instantly refund me. But almost all those orders are under $1000. Everything changes when you have a problem with an expensive order. Amazon has a price threshold where the support system is different and the normal CS people are powerless. During lockdown, I ordered a Son…

Best thing to do is buy straight from manufacturer if possible require insurance on the shipment—that way the post has to deliver it or they are paying you!

At least where I live it's the shippers (i.e. the manufacturers in your example) problem if the package doesn't arrive, not mine.

If they want to purchase insurance on their package, that's their choice. On the flip side if they want to "self insure" by not doing so, and assuming that on average they would pay more for insurance than insurance would pay them, that's also their choice.

Either way I'm certainly not going to purchase insurance myself, paying extra money to mitigate their risk.

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