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Had Covid? You’ll probably make antibodies for a lifetime

nature.com

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Re: Had Covid? You’ll probably make antibodies for a lifetime

#401

Post by mlyle »

toolz wrote: post #247
mlyle wrote: post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Extremely high false positives"-- no, inability to culture from the specimens, which isn't the same thing as a false positive. Please stop conflating the two. It's a sensitivity vs. specificity issue, as I've said before, and I'm willing to listen to arguments on those grounds. As the studies you've cited show, the vast majority of positive samples become so before 30 cycles. Then there's these relatively few "weak…

This is just silly, if you reject the methodology used in these studies to determine effective CT thresholds then it's pretty pointless having a conversation with someone who refuses to do anything other than restate their opinion without providing and evidence that supports their opinions.

As I've repeatedly told you-- you're overstating your evidence here. Infectivity is not the gold standard of what should be a positive test.

Re: Had Covid? You’ll probably make antibodies for a lifetime

#402

Post by toolz »

thebruce87m wrote: post #393
toolz wrote: post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm really not sure where the disconnect is, because all of that seems highly reasonable to me. Yes, I'm saying people avoided preventative care because they were scared to go near hospitals - this is not a controversial topic, it's clear that is true. I'm not sure about your point with respiratory infections but covid goes on the death certificate with a recent positive test even if you died in a car accident. No, I…

QUESTION: Are people who have died in car accidents counted as COVID-19 deaths? ANSWER: No. There is a two-level system in place to make sure death counts are accurate. www.wusa9.com/amp/article/news/verify/covid-deaths-car-crash-comorbidities-coronavirus-death-total-counts-john-hopkins-study/65-e3842ed2-f753-4a15-8b97-c2ae75c2b2ce

Incorrect, they are absolutely counted as covid deaths early on and will likely be re-categorized later, your article even says as much - later corrections are easy for car crashes, but they are not easy for misdiagnosis

either way the context of the conversation is about early trends so my point still stands and is validated by the article you've linked, even.

Re: Had Covid? You’ll probably make antibodies for a lifetime

#403

Post by thebruce87m »

toolz wrote: post #402
thebruce87m wrote: post #393

Earlier quoted context omitted.

QUESTION: Are people who have died in car accidents counted as COVID-19 deaths? ANSWER: No. There is a two-level system in place to make sure death counts are accurate. www.wusa9.com/amp/article/news/verify/covid-deaths-car-crash-comorbidities-coronavirus-death-total-counts-john-hopkins-study/65-e3842ed2-f753-4a15-8b97-c2ae75c2b2ce

Incorrect, they are absolutely counted as covid deaths early on and will likely be re-categorized later, your article even says as much - later corrections are easy for car crashes, but they are not easy for misdiagnosis either way the context of the conversation is about early trends so my point still stands and is validated by the article you've linked, even.

Misdiagnosis can go either way, not always in favour of covid.

Early trends showed severe undercounting when later compared to excess mortality, probably due to low testing capacity at the start. See here for some more information on the undercounting: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-...

You’ll have to point out in the previous article where it agrees with your point on car crashes counted as covid deaths, it does not show this in the version of the article that is presented to me.

Re: Had Covid? You’ll probably make antibodies for a lifetime

#404

Post by anoncake »

jeremyjh wrote: post #319
randomopining wrote: post #250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s what I think and is why I actually wanted to get the virus 2+ weeks after vaccination.

You want to get the virus so that in the future you don't...get the virus?

It makes sense if people who have recovered from Covid and are presumed immune are exempt from lockdown measures.

Re: Had Covid? You’ll probably make antibodies for a lifetime

#405

Post by trompetenaccoun »

grey-area wrote: post #374
trompetenaccoun wrote: post #346

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You can see from the figures released by various governments on testing rates vs cases that the false positive rate on tests is very low This sounds like circular logic, or I'm misunderstanding what you mean. How were these "cases" confirmed? By testing? It would help if you cited the figures where the reliability of the tests can easily be seen. Btw, my point was exactly that the issue isn't with the test itself b…

To take one example the uk gov reports testing around 1 million a day for an extended period with only 2-3k positive and there is no strong correlation between testing rates and cases. That indicates a very low false positive rate - a significant false positive rate would give a higher baseline and a stronger correlation.

Of course there is strong correlation between testing rates and cases. If you don't test clinically you can't know you have them. Tanzania for the longest time didn't do any testing at all and as a result officially had 0 cases.

You've not supplied any data supporting your false positive hypothesis.

Re: Had Covid? You’ll probably make antibodies for a lifetime

#407

Post by fabbari »

jokethrowaway wrote: post #370
DarknessFalls wrote: post #283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Remember that across the globe, there are many complex political affiliations. As it turns out, the governments that tend to be more authoritarian, such as India, the U.K., or the U.S. during the last cycle, denied the efficacy of wearing masks or getting vaccinated. Boris Johnson went as far as to suggest he get Covid on stage with the cameras rolling, to show the dangers were exaggerated. Now he's well on his way t…

Right wing governments are definitely less authoritarian than left wing ones. Lockdown in left wing countries has been much worse (as in, you can't get out of this area, you need to wear masks outside) than in the UK or the US. Tbh I was expecting better from the UK Tories and I wish they didn't implement all these restrictions and gave away so much money - but they did way better than other European countries I have…

I see no true Scotsman, am I right?

Re: Had Covid? You’ll probably make antibodies for a lifetime

#408

Post by loveistheanswer »

paxys wrote: post #306
loveistheanswer wrote: post #189

It almost seems like a lot of people don't want the data to indicate that natural immunity is strong and long lasting, even though the data shows that reinfection is extemely rare. Similar to how so many people have been unwilling to even consider a lab leak was a possibility, until just now it seems, because that idea was heresy to the orthodox dogma that ordained Scientists are Saviors. Humans have equated sickness…

Almost like it's okay to dismiss statements made without ample research and evidence and accept them later when due diligence has been done.

Thats not how science works.

1. First you make a hypothesis.

2. Then you gather data.

If people arent allowed to make hypotheses or gather data around hypotheses, we can't do the scientific method.

Re: Had Covid? You’ll probably make antibodies for a lifetime

#409

Post by loveistheanswer »

qqqwerty wrote: post #291
ultralite wrote: post #286

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I expect it works both ways: I expect a weak natural immunity to COVID-19 would have been considered a political loss to some. I don't have sufficient expertise on the matter to hold strong positions either way.

As far as I am concerned, there was only one side that was trying to score political points. The other side was trying to do what was right based on the best evidence that we had at the time. https://www.businessinsider.com/kushner-covid-19-plan-maybe-...

How would you know if your political party was trying to score political points? What specific criteria would have to be met?

Re: Had Covid? You’ll probably make antibodies for a lifetime

#410

Post by grey-area »

trompetenaccoun wrote: post #405
grey-area wrote: post #374

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To take one example the uk gov reports testing around 1 million a day for an extended period with only 2-3k positive and there is no strong correlation between testing rates and cases. That indicates a very low false positive rate - a significant false positive rate would give a higher baseline and a stronger correlation.

Of course there is strong correlation between testing rates and cases. If you don't test clinically you can't know you have them. Tanzania for the longest time didn't do any testing at all and as a result officially had 0 cases. You've not supplied any data supporting your false positive hypothesis.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
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