Had Covid? You’ll probably make antibodies for a lifetime • Hacker News Board

Re: Had Covid? You’ll probably make antibodies for a lifetime

#261

Post by xienze » Sat, May 29, 2021, 2:51 AM UTC

loveistheanswer wrote: post #189

It almost seems like a lot of people don't want the data to indicate that natural immunity is strong and long lasting, even though the data shows that reinfection is extemely rare. Similar to how so many people have been unwilling to even consider a lab leak was a possibility, until just now it seems, because that idea was heresy to the orthodox dogma that ordained Scientists are Saviors. Humans have equated sickness…

> It almost seems like a lot of people don't want the data to indicate that natural immunity is strong and long lasting, even though the data shows that reinfection is extemely rare.

I too remember when the concept of "natural immunity to Covid" was a wild, dangerous conspiracy theory, along with the "came out of the Wuhan lab" theory. Funny watching the narrative change in real time.

Re: Had Covid? You’ll probably make antibodies for a lifetime

#262

Post by trompetenaccoun » Sat, May 29, 2021, 2:52 AM UTC

seren wrote: post #86

From my understanding if you had an mRNA vaccine, your body was only exposed to an artificial spike protein, so effectively you have spike specific antibodies. On the other hand, if you had a real infection by the virus, you likely have antibodies for the spike protein and other part of the virus like the shell. So from my layman understanding, the immunity should be more resistant to a mutation of the spike protein.…

>It is still possible it was a defective test the second time, and something else than Covid.

Now that the whole world has gone banana over a virus outbreak, it's really important to look at and understand how these tests work. Just because she tested positive does not mean she was really sick with covid, nor does it mean that the test was defective if we assume she didn't have it. It's not an on/off thing, it depends on how exactly they test and how the results are interpreted.

Re: Had Covid? You’ll probably make antibodies for a lifetime

#263

Post by tomrod » Sat, May 29, 2021, 3:08 AM UTC

loveistheanswer wrote: post #189

It almost seems like a lot of people don't want the data to indicate that natural immunity is strong and long lasting, even though the data shows that reinfection is extemely rare. Similar to how so many people have been unwilling to even consider a lab leak was a possibility, until just now it seems, because that idea was heresy to the orthodox dogma that ordained Scientists are Saviors. Humans have equated sickness…

Sort of. The infectious disease experts I know and worked with this past year are less worried about a political point and more worried that the immunity fades.

Re: Had Covid? You’ll probably make antibodies for a lifetime

#264

Post by marcosdumay » Sat, May 29, 2021, 3:09 AM UTC

jhugo wrote: post #254

XorNot wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Probably that the vaccine is somewhat irrelevant: though that's up for grabs since what your body targets vs. what the vaccine targets will be subtly different. I'm more interested that this means that quite likely, COVID-19 will be eradicated: with not many advantageous mutation pathways, and if vaccines are conferring immunity forever, it's pretty much going to be burned out of the population one way or the other.

By saying it will quite likely be eradicated, you’re assuming herd_immunity_threshold% vaccination is achieved, aren’t you? There are countries that are yet to achieve even 1% and some populations are likely to never achieve the threshold for immunity in that population.

He is saying herd immunity will be achieved before the virus has a chance to mutate and escape it (it's quite unambiguous here). The GP's comment says nothing explicitly about time frame, but sounds pessimistic on that.

Re: Had Covid? You’ll probably make antibodies for a lifetime

#265

Post by DC-3 » Sat, May 29, 2021, 3:13 AM UTC

xienze wrote: post #261

loveistheanswer wrote: post #189

It almost seems like a lot of people don't want the data to indicate that natural immunity is strong and long lasting, even though the data shows that reinfection is extemely rare. Similar to how so many people have been unwilling to even consider a lab leak was a possibility, until just now it seems, because that idea was heresy to the orthodox dogma that ordained Scientists are Saviors. Humans have equated sickness…

> It almost seems like a lot of people don't want the data to indicate that natural immunity is strong and long lasting, even though the data shows that reinfection is extemely rare. I too remember when the concept of "natural immunity to Covid" was a wild, dangerous conspiracy theory, along with the "came out of the Wuhan lab" theory. Funny watching the narrative change in real time.

Natural immunity was never a dangerous conspiracy theory. It was simply the case that it was too early to have blind faith in it. No-one credible ever denied that it was possible or even that it was likely that people would gain natural immunity.

Re: Had Covid? You’ll probably make antibodies for a lifetime

#266

Post by marcosdumay » Sat, May 29, 2021, 3:13 AM UTC

myth_drannon wrote: post #10

What happened in Manaus/Brazil(high re-infection rate even after the city reached herd immunity) shows that's not that simple and they clearly state it "though viral variants could dampen some of the protection they offer"

It's not clear at all how many people got COVID in Manaus. Testing was pretty bad at the time, and as a consequence the number of people that actually tested positive was far form enough to make an impact.

There was some gossip about an study that indicated a high level of immunity at one time, but when it was released, it actually didn't say that.

Re: Had Covid? You’ll probably make antibodies for a lifetime

#267

Post by barrkel » Sat, May 29, 2021, 3:17 AM UTC

ultralite wrote: post #257

ppljudge wrote: post #88

And every new study like this confirms we didn’t know enough about it to propose solutions like “herd immunity”

Isn't this the sort of study and conclusion that would give weight to "herd immunity"? To you, is there any study/conclusion that would allow us to propose solutions like "herd immunity"?

By that, I presume you mean sit back and do nothing, and let 'immunity' arise from infections.

That doesn't work with Covid because the mortality rate is too high and the infection rate leads to healthcare being overwhelmed.

If there was evidence that the mortality rate was low (but we have evidence of the opposite) or that the infection rate didn't spike upwards and start clogging up the beds that hospitals have which are able to deal with Covid (but we have evidence of the opposite), then that might be a conclusion that would permit proposing it. But we have direct evidence of the opposite.

Re: Had Covid? You’ll probably make antibodies for a lifetime

#268

Post by ultralite » Sat, May 29, 2021, 3:18 AM UTC

DC-3 wrote: post #265

xienze wrote: post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It almost seems like a lot of people don't want the data to indicate that natural immunity is strong and long lasting, even though the data shows that reinfection is extemely rare. I too remember when the concept of "natural immunity to Covid" was a wild, dangerous conspiracy theory, along with the "came out of the Wuhan lab" theory. Funny watching the narrative change in real time.

Natural immunity was never a dangerous conspiracy theory. It was simply the case that it was too early to have blind faith in it. No-one credible ever denied that it was possible or even that it was likely that people would gain natural immunity.

> No-one credible ever denied that it was possible or even that it was likely that people would gain natural immunity.

Let's not rewrite history. It was clear that the media (e.g. BBC, below) chose to amplify messages that discredited natural immunity.

[Prof Wendy Barclay said:] "On the balance of evidence, I would say it would look as if immunity declines away at the same rate as antibodies decline away, and that this is an indication of waning immunity."

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54696873 Oct 2020.

Re: Had Covid? You’ll probably make antibodies for a lifetime

#269

Post by Guvante » Sat, May 29, 2021, 3:19 AM UTC

xienze wrote: post #261

loveistheanswer wrote: post #189

It almost seems like a lot of people don't want the data to indicate that natural immunity is strong and long lasting, even though the data shows that reinfection is extemely rare. Similar to how so many people have been unwilling to even consider a lab leak was a possibility, until just now it seems, because that idea was heresy to the orthodox dogma that ordained Scientists are Saviors. Humans have equated sickness…

> It almost seems like a lot of people don't want the data to indicate that natural immunity is strong and long lasting, even though the data shows that reinfection is extemely rare. I too remember when the concept of "natural immunity to Covid" was a wild, dangerous conspiracy theory, along with the "came out of the Wuhan lab" theory. Funny watching the narrative change in real time.

Technically the wild and crazy ones were "it was bio engineered" and "let's ignore it and gain herd immunity". The former was being touted as justification for violence against Asians and the latter would involve millions of deaths in most countries. Tens of millions world wide.

Re: Had Covid? You’ll probably make antibodies for a lifetime

#270

Post by dsyrk » Sat, May 29, 2021, 3:24 AM UTC

Guvante wrote: post #269

xienze wrote: post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It almost seems like a lot of people don't want the data to indicate that natural immunity is strong and long lasting, even though the data shows that reinfection is extemely rare. I too remember when the concept of "natural immunity to Covid" was a wild, dangerous conspiracy theory, along with the "came out of the Wuhan lab" theory. Funny watching the narrative change in real time.

Technically the wild and crazy ones were "it was bio engineered" and "let's ignore it and gain herd immunity". The former was being touted as justification for violence against Asians and the latter would involve millions of deaths in most countries. Tens of millions world wide.

Would being a result of gain of function research with a particular furin cleavage site be considered “bio engineered”?