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There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the pandemic

economist.com

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Re: There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the pandemic

#91

Post by LogicX »

khazhoux wrote: post #51

This has me a bit confused: I look at the stats on cases and deaths per capita across various U.S. states, including California (which was very locked down, at least in theory) and Florida (which was flippant towards risks of contagion), and many states in between. The per capita cases+deaths are nearly identical across many states with very different approaches. This left me really wondering which measures were and…

I’ve asked myself this question. I have no hard data to back this up, but wonder If it’s related to outside time and vitamin D absorption, which seems to have an affect on covid. Ex: did NYC have a tougher time than Florida as a result of this, and even with all the protocols in NYC, they could do only as well as Florida with no rules.

Re: There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the pandemic

#92

Post by ianai »

josh_today wrote: post #47
breck wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If not, we’re about 20% done with COVID, world-wide. For exponential processes think of the % done on a log scale. So population of USA is 320M, and ~100M had COVID, or we were 94% (8/8.5) done with it before vaccine was introduced.

Not questioning the numbers but genuinely curious how the exponential math works in this case. Thanks

Per Google, the US is at 33 million total cases.

Re: There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the pandemic

#93

Post by ngngngng »

mattnewton wrote: post #56
khazhoux wrote: post #51

This has me a bit confused: I look at the stats on cases and deaths per capita across various U.S. states, including California (which was very locked down, at least in theory) and Florida (which was flippant towards risks of contagion), and many states in between. The per capita cases+deaths are nearly identical across many states with very different approaches. This left me really wondering which measures were and…

I don’t have anything to add except that California is huge and very unevenly applied “lockdown” - there are many towns a where businesses remained open or reopened frequently, but the big cities did have large shelter in place efforts. It would be interesting to compare on the municipal level if the data was that granular.

The community I grew up in in California purposefully threw rallies and went out of their way to rebel against every single restriction. I keep this in mind when people say California's restrictions didn't work.

Edit: This was in Orange County CA, not rural. And when I say "rallies" I'm talking thousands of people, not small gatherings.

Re: There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the pandemic

#94

Post by todfox »

dragonwriter wrote: post #74
throwaway3699 wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're getting downvoted but I do believe you're correct. I'm a healthy 21 year old, please govt., give my vaccine to other countries. I will take it if offered, but I'd prefer to give it to those who really need it all things considered. Let me get the vaccine when others are safe.

Your being vaccinated is important for protecting those who can’t be vaccinated. Plus, what’s most likely to drive governments to exports of vaccines is hitting/exceeding their own vaccination targets. The most effective way to lobby for exports is to get vaccinated.

Well said. Getting vaccinated when you're technically low risk may seem selfish, but it still benefits others. It would be politically untenable for the US to give away its remaining doses until a substantial portion of its own population is vaccinated. Whether that's right or wrong, the faster we get there, the better.

Re: There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the pandemic

#95

Post by candu »

khazhoux wrote: post #51

This has me a bit confused: I look at the stats on cases and deaths per capita across various U.S. states, including California (which was very locked down, at least in theory) and Florida (which was flippant towards risks of contagion), and many states in between. The per capita cases+deaths are nearly identical across many states with very different approaches. This left me really wondering which measures were and…

IMHO if you want to understand what an effective response looks like - don't look at North America or Europe. Think Vietnam, Australia, New Zealand, and many parts of Africa, all of which had vastly better outcomes.

Of course, I'm not an epidemiologist or public health expert, so while I have some guesses I'm not sure what exactly they did that was more effective - but there's no question that it was more effective. If I was going to look for case studies to understand what to do next time, I'd start there. If I was going to look for case studies to understand what not to do next time, well...

Re: There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the pandemic

#96

Post by mikepurvis »

dabbledash wrote: post #82
andrei_says_ wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Count of covid cases and deaths has been highly politicized and manipulated in Florida to the point of firing people for reporting them. Not sure how possible it is to get accurate info in this environment.

That’s why overall excess deaths are a better measure. You really can’t game them.

I think it’s still hard because deaths for almost everything else go down when people aren’t out getting in car crashes, picking the regular flu, etc etc.

Re: There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the pandemic

#97

Post by wyager »

MauroIksem wrote: post #58
wyager wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Neither mortality rate nor vaccine administration rate are uniform. The mortality rate is much lower than 0.5% in e.g. people under 60 years old, and people who are in high-risk groups are mostly already vaccinated. The effective mortality rate today is probably at least an order of magnitude lower, maybe two. Edit: To whoever is downvoting this - you are not only wrong, but hilariously directionally wrong, and in a…

This is literally just your opinion and you have zero to base this on. Stop spreading misinformation.

> This is literally just your opinion and you have zero to base this on. Stop spreading misinformation.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#Se...

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-demogr...

https://usafacts.org/visualizations/covid-vaccine-tracker-st...

It's pretty funny that you object to something that is clearly true as "just your opinion" and "misinformation" when you're doing exactly that yourself.

Re: There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the pandemic

#98

Post by [deleted] »

khazhoux wrote: post #51

This has me a bit confused: I look at the stats on cases and deaths per capita across various U.S. states, including California (which was very locked down, at least in theory) and Florida (which was flippant towards risks of contagion), and many states in between. The per capita cases+deaths are nearly identical across many states with very different approaches. This left me really wondering which measures were and…

[deleted]

Re: There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the pandemic

#99

Post by chmod600 »

bytematic wrote: post #39

For people who think that is low, this is with the precautions taken, imagine if nobody did anything

Florida didn't lock down (EDIT: except a few weeks at the beginning), and their death numbers are middle-of-the-pack[1], just marginally worse than California, which did heavy lockdowns.

We should probably assume that, in addition to not following some practices we should have, we also did a lot that we didn't have to.

[1] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html list the states by "of all time" and "deaths" which shows FL with 168 deaths per 100k and CA with 159, only two slots apart.

Re: There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the pandemic

#100

Post by codelord »

khazhoux wrote: post #51

This has me a bit confused: I look at the stats on cases and deaths per capita across various U.S. states, including California (which was very locked down, at least in theory) and Florida (which was flippant towards risks of contagion), and many states in between. The per capita cases+deaths are nearly identical across many states with very different approaches. This left me really wondering which measures were and…

This is from earlier: https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/excess-mortality-across-countr... Interestingly Sweden that got famous for defying lockdowns saw an uptick of 1.5% excess mortality per 100K people compared to 12.9% for the US that was relatively more locked down. I'm not sure what to make of it, but it sure is an interesting data point.
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