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There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the pandemic

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Re: There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the pandemic

#22
post #11

The earth’s population is 7.9b, so the excess deaths are 0.1% of the population. COVID’s mortality rate is about 0.5%, so roughly 1/5 of the population has has had it (or died of other related things, like starvation in developing countries due to the lockdown stopping food harvests in California). Currently, 1.45b doses of a vaccine have been administered, so about as many people have had the vaccine (partially, at…

It's disheartening seeing people in the US mad at the 30% vaccine hesitant there, while 6B+ at the gates have no vaccines available at all.

The US isn't an island, and the borders are nowhere near closed. The variants that grow in the other 96% of humans that aren't americans will doubtlessly end up there, and will be end up tending toward vaccine resistance due to selection pressure.

I think this is going to get much worse before it gets better. The disunity of nationalistic selfishness has struck our species once again.

Re: There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the pandemic

#24
post #11

The earth’s population is 7.9b, so the excess deaths are 0.1% of the population. COVID’s mortality rate is about 0.5%, so roughly 1/5 of the population has has had it (or died of other related things, like starvation in developing countries due to the lockdown stopping food harvests in California). Currently, 1.45b doses of a vaccine have been administered, so about as many people have had the vaccine (partially, at…

Neither mortality rate nor vaccine administration rate are uniform. The mortality rate is much lower than 0.5% in e.g. people under 60 years old, and people who are in high-risk groups are mostly already vaccinated. The effective mortality rate today is probably at least an order of magnitude lower, maybe two.

Edit: To whoever is downvoting this - you are not only wrong, but hilariously directionally wrong, and in a very obvious way. Nothing about my comment should be contentious if you have any idea what's going on.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#Se...

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-demogr...

https://usafacts.org/visualizations/covid-vaccine-tracker-st...

Re: There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the pandemic

#25
Holy cow. This does massively underline how important the work of things like COVAX are in getting equitable global access to vaccines. We still need billions more doses manufactured, distributed and administered - it could take years and cost a fortune - and we should not lose our urgency or our focus.

Re: There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the pandemic

#27
post #14

If I did the math right, that's (at most) .17% of the population. In a normal year I'd guess we lose 1% of the population. I guess this seems lower than I'd expect?

This is excess mortality, as in “above what would be expected in a normal year based on demographics”. So, if looking at historical trends and the current demographics as compared with those trends we had a prior expectation of your 1%, then what we we actually observed is 1.17%.

Yeah, I get that. I guess I just mean that the worst pandemic of the last 100 years and (so far) it's maybe 17% deaths over the baseline. That feels kinda low.

Re: There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the pandemic

#28
post #14

If I did the math right, that's (at most) .17% of the population. In a normal year I'd guess we lose 1% of the population. I guess this seems lower than I'd expect?

This is deaths in excess of the expected number, not total deaths. Given the normal death rate, we're 10m(+-3m) over that.

Re: There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the pandemic

#29
post #11

The earth’s population is 7.9b, so the excess deaths are 0.1% of the population. COVID’s mortality rate is about 0.5%, so roughly 1/5 of the population has has had it (or died of other related things, like starvation in developing countries due to the lockdown stopping food harvests in California). Currently, 1.45b doses of a vaccine have been administered, so about as many people have had the vaccine (partially, at…

> If not, we’re about 20% done with COVID, world-wide.

For exponential processes think of the % done on a log scale. So population of USA is 320M, and ~100M had COVID, or we were 94% (8/8.5) done with it before vaccine was introduced.

Re: There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the pandemic

#30
I found the counting approach to Covid so far to be rather fascinating. With the flu in the US they guess and present that number, but we're supposed to attach some meaningful value to the Covid positive counts as though that actually represents anywhere near the real number of Covid cases since the outbreak began. It's bullshit, I'm just not sure why the establishment (media, government, censors, etc) stick so tightly to the line on the bogus official counts. They act like those counts actually represent the outbreak properly. Perhaps in their pathological quest for control (a central theme of most politicians) they need a number to lean on as authoritative, to prop up their weak credibility. If they can't even give you accurate outbreak counts, what else can be believed (masks, no masks; 6 feet, 20 feet, no feet; fear the surfaces, don't fear the surfaces; vaccines take years (nope: 1957 Asian flu); it has been a total clown show the entire pandemic).

India had been seeing near 400,000 cases per day. That's an entirely bogus number of course. And it's near universally agreed upon that it's bogus. The question is whether it's a million, two million, five million, whatever. What's actually closer to the truth? That's where everybody abandons ship, I never see the news media go deep into that part of it (and yet they happily report the made-up flu numbers every year).

Part of the comedy of it, is that the supposed truth enforcers are enforcing a fraud, because none of these official counts are anywhere close to real, no matter which country you pick as the topic.

Is India seeing 4,000 deaths per day, or 10,000, or 15,000? It's a dramatic difference across a month of time. The best you'll get out of the media is a little edge statement of: but it's suspected to be under-reported. Yeah, no kidding.

The US has seen 33 million cases of Covid - that's the reported media line in every story. Everyone knows it's bogus and doesn't represent anywhere close to the number of actual infections in the US and yet it's reported on as properly representing the scale of the pandemic in the US. There has been so much intellectual fraud in this pandemic.

So the obvious question: if they very widely report the made-up / guess-work flu counts every single year, year after year, across all media, why haven't they been doing exactly the same thing with Covid? That's what I want an answer to. Everyone avoids throwing out flu-like guesses on the real scale of the pandemic - the CDC doesn't want to do it, the media doesn't want to do it, the government broadly doesn't want to do it. Why aren't they reporting that it's more likely that there have been 60, 90, 120 million (etc) cases of Covid?

edit: and the downvotes on this are fascinating too, given what I'm talking about is rooted in obvious reality not propaganda or conspiracy theory. I've noticed reality - objectivity, facts, logic - has been particularly unpopular during the pandemic, people have been letting their emotions control their reactions to everything. I don't believe there are very many people ignorant enough to think the official positive Covid counts actually represent the pandemic properly; I do think there are a lot of people desperate to hide from reality for one reason or another, however.

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