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There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the pandemic

economist.com

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Re: There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the pandemic

#11

Post by hedora »

The earth’s population is 7.9b, so the excess deaths are 0.1% of the population. COVID’s mortality rate is about 0.5%, so roughly 1/5 of the population has has had it (or died of other related things, like starvation in developing countries due to the lockdown stopping food harvests in California).

Currently, 1.45b doses of a vaccine have been administered, so about as many people have had the vaccine (partially, at least), as have had COVID.

Hopefully the vaccine will make to the rest of the population soon. If not, we’re about 20% done with COVID, world-wide.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/world/covid-vaccina...

I’m pretty jaded at this point. My guess is that the vaccine rollout stalls out in poorer countries and COVID falls out of the news cycle before the majority of deaths.

Re: There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the pandemic

#16

Post by jeffbee »

hedora wrote: post #11

The earth’s population is 7.9b, so the excess deaths are 0.1% of the population. COVID’s mortality rate is about 0.5%, so roughly 1/5 of the population has has had it (or died of other related things, like starvation in developing countries due to the lockdown stopping food harvests in California). Currently, 1.45b doses of a vaccine have been administered, so about as many people have had the vaccine (partially, at…

Recent research claimed that the excess mortality rate among people who had COVID but didn't die from it immediately was elevated 6 months after their recovery, with 8 excess deaths per thousand patients. So the real mortality rate may be a little higher than people estimate.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/04/210422123603.h...

Re: There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the pandemic

#17

Post by deepserket »

0x0 wrote: post #7

"Our apologies. An error seems to have occurred. We’ve logged this error. Contact us if this issue persists." ...

pdf of the page here: https://gofile.io/d/IPEm7Z there are 3 graphs that aren't completely shown in the file

https://www.economist.com/assets/infographic/2021/covid-19-e...

https://www.economist.com/assets/infographic/2021/covid-19-e...

https://infographics.economist.com/2021/20210515_FBC103/inde...

Re: There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the pandemic

#18

Post by HDMI_Cable »

timmg wrote: post #14

If I did the math right, that's (at most) .17% of the population. In a normal year I'd guess we lose 1% of the population. I guess this seems lower than I'd expect?

These are excess deaths, so 7-13m deaths on top of the 1% already expected for this year.

Re: There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the pandemic

#19

Post by msbarnett »

timmg wrote: post #14

If I did the math right, that's (at most) .17% of the population. In a normal year I'd guess we lose 1% of the population. I guess this seems lower than I'd expect?

This is excess mortality, as in “above what would be expected in a normal year based on demographics”.

So, if looking at historical trends and the current demographics as compared with those trends we had a prior expectation of your 1%, then what we we actually observed is 1.17%.

Re: There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the pandemic

#20

Post by whimsicalism »

xiphias2 wrote: post #9

From what I have seen in poorer countries, in some cases the worst things have just started. I was dating a Colombian girl who got a 200% APR loan from a city near her during the lockdown to be able to pay her rent without a job, and hadn't even realized that it's 200% APR (15%/month didn't sound that bad to her). People are on the streets because the government wants to increase taxes, and they are already in huge d…

> 15%/month didn't sound that bad to her

This is why when economists talk about consumers acting as rational market participants I just laugh and shake my head.

Have they met people?

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