Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the pandemic

economist.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

31–40 of 489 posts

Re: There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the pandemic

#31

Post by vitus »

xiphias2 wrote: post #9

From what I have seen in poorer countries, in some cases the worst things have just started. I was dating a Colombian girl who got a 200% APR loan from a city near her during the lockdown to be able to pay her rent without a job, and hadn't even realized that it's 200% APR (15%/month didn't sound that bad to her). People are on the streets because the government wants to increase taxes, and they are already in huge d…

This reads like a standard payday loan, to be honest. Which is to say, it's absolutely taking advantage of people who already can't afford it, but it's also not a new phenomenon.

A standard payday loan might be 10% on a $100 advance, repaid after 2 weeks (when your next paycheck comes in). That translates to a 260% APR, even without considering compounding.

Re: There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the pandemic

#32

Post by ethbr0 »

hedora wrote: post #11

The earth’s population is 7.9b, so the excess deaths are 0.1% of the population. COVID’s mortality rate is about 0.5%, so roughly 1/5 of the population has has had it (or died of other related things, like starvation in developing countries due to the lockdown stopping food harvests in California). Currently, 1.45b doses of a vaccine have been administered, so about as many people have had the vaccine (partially, at…

100% COVID / vaccination isn't the end point.

It's R_t So some amount < 100% of people infected / vaccinated will create enough spreading "distance" between that coronavirus won't be able to effectively reproduce, because the (limited) vulnerable hosts will be too "far" apart.

Re: There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the pandemic

#33

Post by throwaway3699 »

sneak wrote: post #22
hedora wrote: post #11

The earth’s population is 7.9b, so the excess deaths are 0.1% of the population. COVID’s mortality rate is about 0.5%, so roughly 1/5 of the population has has had it (or died of other related things, like starvation in developing countries due to the lockdown stopping food harvests in California). Currently, 1.45b doses of a vaccine have been administered, so about as many people have had the vaccine (partially, at…

It's disheartening seeing people in the US mad at the 30% vaccine hesitant there, while 6B+ at the gates have no vaccines available at all. The US isn't an island, and the borders are nowhere near closed. The variants that grow in the other 96% of humans that aren't americans will doubtlessly end up there, and will be end up tending toward vaccine resistance due to selection pressure. I think this is going to get muc…

You're getting downvoted but I do believe you're correct. I'm a healthy 21 year old, please govt., give my vaccine to other countries. I will take it if offered, but I'd prefer to give it to those who really need it all things considered. Let me get the vaccine when others are safe.

Re: There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the pandemic

#34

Post by elliekelly »

whimsicalism wrote: post #20
xiphias2 wrote: post #9

From what I have seen in poorer countries, in some cases the worst things have just started. I was dating a Colombian girl who got a 200% APR loan from a city near her during the lockdown to be able to pay her rent without a job, and hadn't even realized that it's 200% APR (15%/month didn't sound that bad to her). People are on the streets because the government wants to increase taxes, and they are already in huge d…

> 15%/month didn't sound that bad to her This is why when economists talk about consumers acting as rational market participants I just laugh and shake my head. Have they met people?

When your only options are (1) a loan at 15% while you’re unemployed but you get another 30-60 days of a roof over your head or (2) immediate homelessness then the high-interest loan is the rational choice.

Re: There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the pandemic

#35

Post by wombatmobile »

sneak wrote: post #22
hedora wrote: post #11

The earth’s population is 7.9b, so the excess deaths are 0.1% of the population. COVID’s mortality rate is about 0.5%, so roughly 1/5 of the population has has had it (or died of other related things, like starvation in developing countries due to the lockdown stopping food harvests in California). Currently, 1.45b doses of a vaccine have been administered, so about as many people have had the vaccine (partially, at…

It's disheartening seeing people in the US mad at the 30% vaccine hesitant there, while 6B+ at the gates have no vaccines available at all. The US isn't an island, and the borders are nowhere near closed. The variants that grow in the other 96% of humans that aren't americans will doubtlessly end up there, and will be end up tending toward vaccine resistance due to selection pressure. I think this is going to get muc…

> The disunity of nationalistic selfishness has struck our species once again.

Let's unpack that.

Is what you describe a species specific phenomenon i.e. biological in origin? I'm not sure how you'd determine that question, if what you are talking about is "attitude to vaccine inoculation to stave off pandemic spread", since that behaviour is limited to one species, and is fairly recent.

Is what you describe a species wide phenomenon i.e. biological in origin? What does the data from different nationalities tell us? Does the phenomenon occur similarly in all nationalities, or only some?

Is the phenomenon biological in nature, or might it be cultural? Is it even widely held amongst individuals, or might it originate from some other level of organisation e.g. government, media? How would you investigate these questions?

Re: There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the pandemic

#37

Post by msbarnett »

timmg wrote: post #27
msbarnett wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is excess mortality, as in “above what would be expected in a normal year based on demographics”. So, if looking at historical trends and the current demographics as compared with those trends we had a prior expectation of your 1%, then what we we actually observed is 1.17%.

Yeah, I get that. I guess I just mean that the worst pandemic of the last 100 years and (so far) it's maybe 17% deaths over the baseline. That feels kinda low.

17% excess mortality (and that’s assuming this 1% baseline we pulled out of the air, remember) doesn’t mean that the pandemic is only responsible for those excess deaths – a bunch of people who might have otherwise been expected to get hit by a car worked from home all year, or died from COVID instead, etc.

So the pandemic is responsible for the 17% (in this scenario) uplift above baseline plus an unknown portion of that baseline itself.

To be honest one cause, which changed a lot of behaviour that rolls into the baseline, pushing the global baseline up that much seems pretty impressive to me.

Would be also interesting to consider distribution of that excess and how China fared in the excess mortality department. After the early days they seemed to keep it tightly under control, and they contain an enormous portion of the world’s population. That might suggest that excess mortality elsewhere was even further above baseline and the excess mortality only looks this good because 1.2 billion people mostly stuck to baseline?

Re: There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the pandemic

#38

Post by reader_x »

whimsicalism wrote: post #20
xiphias2 wrote: post #9

From what I have seen in poorer countries, in some cases the worst things have just started. I was dating a Colombian girl who got a 200% APR loan from a city near her during the lockdown to be able to pay her rent without a job, and hadn't even realized that it's 200% APR (15%/month didn't sound that bad to her). People are on the streets because the government wants to increase taxes, and they are already in huge d…

> 15%/month didn't sound that bad to her This is why when economists talk about consumers acting as rational market participants I just laugh and shake my head. Have they met people?

I think Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky already put the “rational market participant” myth to bed for good.
Post reply on HN