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The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

cnbc.com

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Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#611

Post by CamperBob2 »

robomartin wrote: post #472
neltnerb wrote: post #429

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I appreciate it, but still apologize for being flippant. I did intend the comment to be about the dog washing startup that I assumed to be a fairly small business. Not buying the (presumed to be in the 10,000 quantity range) MCUs they needed ahead of time, knowing that they will be the single linchpin chip that there will be no pin-compatible replacement for, is what I found to be ridiculous. I hope you find that per…

That's the good-old hindsight is 20/20 business, isn't it? No need to apologize at all. This is conversation. We all have much to learn. Today, what you suggested is precisely what I do. I try to make sure there are at least three pin/function-compatible chips that can swap in for any given device. Preferably from different manufacturers. I also talk to distributors to get a sense of volume. I prefer to buy devices a…

As someone else in this thread mentioned, I too wish there were more documented stories of business failures. That's where the real lessons for all of us lie.

Usually telling someone to "get a blog, dude" is an insult, but in this case it's a real shame that the experience you're relating is going to be buried and forgotten in an ephemeral HN thread. Have you considered sharing your experiences and thoughts on an actual blog, perhaps in conjunction with whatever business you're engaged in nowadays? That's one page I'd bookmark for sure.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#612

Post by frogpelt »

qubidt wrote: post #600
throwaway0a5e wrote: post #599

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Yeah, the size of these trucks has completely put me off ever wanting one. I miss the small ones from a few decades ago. You (statistical you as a HN user, not you personally) say this with one breath but one look at the B pillar of an 80s minivan and you'd start coming up with excuses for why it's not safe enough for your kid. The same demographics that complain about cars growing do a hell of a lot more complainin…

Modern trucks are still huge relative to other vehicles on the road. I want smaller trucks.

Small trucks are available. A base model, 2wd, 2-door Tacoma is not big.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#613

Post by Cadwhisker »

neltnerb wrote: post #193
smiley1437 wrote: post #58

Interestingly, there is an embedded video in that article that explains the issue specific to the automotive shortage - it's because the automotive industry cancelled a lot of chip orders in anticipation of low vehicle demand and that caused chip makers to reduce their production for the kinds of chips that go into cars, and now it takes time to ramp back up: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/03/02/how-the-global-compu…

I get that this is a potential big problem, but I had to stop reading when the dog washing company blamed needing to respin a new board on a chip being out of stock due to this. I'm sorry, but if you aren't buying enough chips to build all the boards you want to build of a revision, this is just what happens, chip shortage or no. Stuff gets obsoleted all the time, it doesn't take a chip shortage. Blaming a black swan…

I work at a decent-sized electronics company with several dozen products on the market at any one time. Lead times for chips were usually 12 weeks in normal times. We have forecast sales going off at least 6 months or a year away. We have known where the shortages will be for some months now.

We have already re-spun PCB designs to work in alternate ICs for some of the ones that we know will become unavailable; dual-footprint in case the originals come back. This took time and effort to design and verify and all that work could have gone into the design of new products, but it had to be done. This has put us some number of months behind our original planned dates for our new products.

The problem is that we can see shortages coming up which we cannot work around. We cannot buy enough parts, the lead-times are astonishing. At some point we are going to have to get lucky or halt production.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#614

Post by alexose »

robomartin wrote: post #285
neltnerb wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I get that this is a potential big problem, but I had to stop reading when the dog washing company blamed needing to respin a new board on a chip being out of stock due to this. I'm sorry, but if you aren't buying enough chips to build all the boards you want to build of a revision, this is just what happens, chip shortage or no. Stuff gets obsoleted all the time, it doesn't take a chip shortage. Blaming a black swan…

> I had to stop reading when the dog washing company blamed needing to respin a new board on a chip being out of stock due to this ... > if you aren't buying enough chips to build all the boards you want to build of a revision Friendly advice: If you are going to be a consultant to industry, don't post comments like this. As someone who has been manufacturing tech products for over thirty years, my first reaction to…

This is one of the best comments I’ve read on this site. I’m sorry for the hardship, but I so appreciate you sharing what you’ve learned.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#615

Post by matkoniecz »

JohnJamesRambo wrote: post #593
ArkanExplorer wrote: post #498

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, this is the result of people like Neill Ferguson forecasting that COVID would be multiple times worse than it turned out to be, and Governments and the media believing him. For example this report from March 2020 was highly influential and predicted 2.2 million deaths in the US in an 'unmitigated epidemic' scenario: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s... When in reality the official COVID…

We had 581k deaths so far, is that not close enough to 2.2 million unmitigated to be in the ballpark? It is for me. This guy is like Nostradamus compared to the people at NASA doing project life estimates for the rovers.

> compared to the people at NASA doing project life estimates for the rovers

This one is obviously caused by setting "bare minimum" to "actual expected average time".

Mission exceeding minimum plan is much better that very expensive hardware failing before supposed end of mission.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#616

Post by psadauskas »

frogpelt wrote: post #612
qubidt wrote: post #600

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Modern trucks are still huge relative to other vehicles on the road. I want smaller trucks.

Small trucks are available. A base model, 2wd, 2-door Tacoma is not big.

They don't make a 2-door Tacoma any more (for the US market). The smallest now is an "access cab".

I bought a 2-door Tacoma 5 years ago, and the dealer struggled to find one for me. It shipped from over 1000 miles away, meanwhile they had 20+ 4-door Tacomas on the lot.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#617

Post by robomartin »

ecpottinger wrote: post #609
robomartin wrote: post #285

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I had to stop reading when the dog washing company blamed needing to respin a new board on a chip being out of stock due to this ... > if you aren't buying enough chips to build all the boards you want to build of a revision Friendly advice: If you are going to be a consultant to industry, don't post comments like this. As someone who has been manufacturing tech products for over thirty years, my first reaction to…

I wrote a simple inventory program for a yachting company, after entering the inventory data into the computer it turns out a lot of expensive parts had been double ordered and even triple ordered. But the Ontario added a luxury tax and sales tanked. It looks like they had over three million dollars in excess inventory. And soon the company went bankrupt, to this day I think the company would had pulled thru if it di…

I can't tell you how often I see comments on HN about "corporate greed" and such things as "businesses just want to make money at any cost". What these commenters don't understand is that cash is like the blood pumping through the veins of the business. Without cash the business dies. Even worse, people lose jobs, families lose security and the chain reaction can be massive. Businesses need profit and careful management in order to accumulate cash to grow and survive through events and circumstances most people who have never run a non-trivial business couldn't even begin to imagine.

Every time I read such comments I reflect upon how terrible of a job we are doing in teaching young people about finance, business and entrepreneurship. In the US most high school graduates have no skills to offer other than, perhaps, stacking boxes and making coffee (after some training). I truly don't understand how people are happy with this in a so-called "developed" nation. We launch young adults into the world and they know so little about it. That's where such comments come from. How could you blame them? The entire country failed them by not ensuring their education includes perspectives and knowledge that allows them to deliver value to potential employers.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#618

Post by 9000 »

Snoozle wrote: post #496
9000 wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Can you give examples of model years and decisions to back up your claim? Actually, I think the burden of proof is on the GP who made the original claim that there are plenty of small trucks for those who want them. Additionally, it's easier for them —or you— to provide a single example of a common small truck than for the parent to provide a comprehensive breakdown of the sizes of all trucks over decades of model…

No, I'm not the one claiming a modern Tacoma is as big as an old F150. Why is the burden on me to prove information presented as fact with no supporting evidence?

Well, the burden of proof is on you for saying that there are small trucks on the market. But, it turns out that the complaint about the Tacoma is spot on.

The Tacoma's weight has increased from the 3155 lbs. - 3877 lbs range when it was first released [0], to now being in the 4,425 lbs. – 4,480 lbs range [1]. In comparison, the 2020 Ford F-150 weighs in the range of 4,069 lbs – 4,653 lbs [2]. For fairness, a Ford F-150 from 1995, the first year that the Tacoma came out, weighed around 4,316 lbs [3]. So, they are in fact the same weight.

Similarly, the length of the Tacoma was 30-40 inches shorter when it was released [0][1]. Now, it is within the range of a modern F-150 [2].

In conclusion, the Tacoma has increased substantially in size since its introduction (the Wikipedia page mentions it was reclassified from a compact pickup to a midsize pickup), and is now on par with a Ford F-150 (both modern and the 1995 version) in terms of weight and length.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_Tacoma#First_generation... [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_Tacoma#Third_generation... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ford_F-Series_(thirteenth_gene... [3] https://www.edmunds.com/ford/f-150/1995/features-specs/

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#619

Post by robomartin »

CamperBob2 wrote: post #611
robomartin wrote: post #472

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's the good-old hindsight is 20/20 business, isn't it? No need to apologize at all. This is conversation. We all have much to learn. Today, what you suggested is precisely what I do. I try to make sure there are at least three pin/function-compatible chips that can swap in for any given device. Preferably from different manufacturers. I also talk to distributors to get a sense of volume. I prefer to buy devices a…

As someone else in this thread mentioned, I too wish there were more documented stories of business failures. That's where the real lessons for all of us lie. Usually telling someone to "get a blog, dude" is an insult, but in this case it's a real shame that the experience you're relating is going to be buried and forgotten in an ephemeral HN thread. Have you considered sharing your experiences and thoughts on an act…

I have. And I will. Eventually. I just don't have the time to do something like that justice at this point and the emotional ride might not serve me well. It's one thing to open-up on rare occasion on HN, it's quite another to make a regular thing out of it. Revisiting your failures doesn't necessarily make for the best frame of mind as you work hard to push forward.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#620

Post by aidenn0 »

frogpelt wrote: post #612
qubidt wrote: post #600

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Modern trucks are still huge relative to other vehicles on the road. I want smaller trucks.

Small trucks are available. A base model, 2wd, 2-door Tacoma is not big.

It may be poor memory, or maybe different styling, but a 2020 Tacoma feels a lot bigger than a late 80s Toyota Pick Up or Ford Ranger.

Looking it up, the longest fourth-generation Hilux was 195.5 inches long, and the shortest Tacoma is 212 inches. Similarly its ~60 inches vs ~70 inches of height. For the single cab, long-bed it's 10 inches higher and 16 inches longer and the Hilux was available with a single-cab short bed that was even 12 inches shorter.

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