Starting? The semiconductor issue has been going on since at least March and is only getting worse every week. The stocks of solar companies, car makers, cryptocurrency miners, appliance makers, and anyone else relying on semiconductors has been dropping since February. Some like the solar company ENPH have been cut in half. Shipments on products with semiconductors have gone from an ETA of 6-8 month from April 2021 to “12 months or more” from this month, May 2021. I heard a rumor that it takes 2 years for a new semiconductor plant to be built so we may be in for a quite a wait for the supply to catch up to the demand…
The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences
591–600 of 741 posts
Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences
#592Earlier quoted context omitted.
Most of the improvements are invisible. Better crumbing zones, better shock absorption, better composite materials. If you watch crash test of a modern car Vs 10-y old car, the later is significantly more dangerous. 20+ year old? Basically a death trap.
The number of deaths per 1 million miles driven hasn't dropped in the past 10 years so that puts a huge dent in your theory. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in...
Maybe, maybe not.
Those numbers include pedestrian deaths, which the same wiki article states "began rising in 2010, and exceeded 6,000 by 2018" (constituting a higher percentage of deaths in 2018 than in 2010).
If you subtract off the 6400 pedestrian deaths in 2018 and the 4200 in 2010, then you do see a drop-off in fatalities per hundred million miles driven -- from 0.971 in 2010 to 0.935 in 2018 (and even lower in 2019 at 0.925, as the raw number of deaths went down as miles traveled went up).
(Further, this isn't even considering other non-automobile occupants in crashes, whether that's bicycles or motorcycles.)
Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences
#593Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is largely a result of just-in-time manufacturing. Companies hate holding on to inventory. Most companies now don’t hold on to any extra stock needed to manufacture their products. This is great for your finances in normal times. But don’t complain when there is a shortage and you literally have zero slack for delays and your factory sits idle — that’s the well-known drawback.
No, this is the result of people like Neill Ferguson forecasting that COVID would be multiple times worse than it turned out to be, and Governments and the media believing him. For example this report from March 2020 was highly influential and predicted 2.2 million deaths in the US in an 'unmitigated epidemic' scenario: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s... When in reality the official COVID…
We had 581k deaths so far, is that not close enough to 2.2 million unmitigated to be in the ballpark? It is for me.
This guy is like Nostradamus compared to the people at NASA doing project life estimates for the rovers.
Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences
#594And this is the sort of thing that kills Bitcoin (long-term). At some point you are faced with sustaining the security of your network at a cost of doing real work, if silicon manufacture were ever that scarce. Worse, if Bitcoin is the dominant currency... paying for hardware is, a weird Ouroboros of power.
Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences
#595Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yeah, the size of these trucks has completely put me off ever wanting one. I miss the small ones from a few decades ago... great for surfing, hauling the ver occasional bit of stuff, just as useful as the ugly beasts of today but far cheaper and more maneuverable and safer. I think we need to start requiring commercial drivers licenses on some of these beasts. They are intentionally designed to be difficult to see ou…
I am from Brazil, I've heard plenty of stories of people that bought imported Ford trucks and then are confused when their trucks get impounded because they drove without a license, not realizing that trucks here require a different license unless they are literally car-sized. Example: Fiat Fiorino: https://www.hojeemdia.com.br/polopoly_fs/1.792949!/image/ima... It used same Chassis as Fiat Uno https://quatrorodas.ab…
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Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences
#596Earlier quoted context omitted.
I meant the parts that are not common enough to have pin-compatible substitutes from multiple vendors. I have worked with people way above hobbyist level and it is those obnoxious non-standard parts that are the ones that suddenly go out of stock everywhere even if they aren't actually obsoleted. Sometimes they just haven't done a run manufacturing that part number in a while and the stock ran out. I've seen this hap…
“The parts that don’t have a pin compatible substitute” is usually 80% of your total BOM cost. It’s not a helpful clarification. Let’s take something totally ordinary like an STM32 MCU, and let’s ignore for a moment that there are now some clones on the market, with questionable compatibility at times. Even though they’re unique parts, there is no way anybody sane would stock up on those for the lifetime of a product…
I’ve been stocking up on various chips and components for the last month. Almost grabbed some STM32s. Maybe if I can find them.
I have this growing gut feeling we are at the peak of technology... at least for a while.
Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences
#597Earlier quoted context omitted.
They've been low for a while now too. As annoying as it is to have a $670 car payment each month, you really can't beat 0% interest on a $40k loan. Especially in a market where the average monthly return on $40k in stocks has been pretty substantial.
You lose all of that and more on depreciation in the first two years. I buy older than most people; currently my newest car is a 2009. I do maintenance and routine repairs myself, and I lose almost nothing on depreciation. But you can still come out ahead by buying 4-6 years old and letting the original buyers take the bulk of the depreciation losses.
I don't think this is a blanket rule. Sometimes 2-4 year old cars can be the same price as a new car. This seemed to happen after the GFC crash.
Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences
#598Earlier quoted context omitted.
> "then it should be a public foundry, if payed for by the public" It sounds to me like Intel is willing to set up a fab in Europe, and they've stated their asking price. Why does this immediately result in people saying that it should be a public foundry just because it would ultimately be paid for by the public?
Because it would ultimately be paid for by the public.
It's a voluntary exchange. If Intel's requirements for participating don't work for the locality, nobody is required to participate.
If the locality chooses to pay with public funds, that's their decision to make. But it doesn't immediately erase the history and override the terms of the exchange that was made.
Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences
#599Regarding cars: "Some carmakers are now leaving out high-end features as a result of the chip shortage, according to a Bloomberg report on Thursday. Nissan is reportedly leaving navigation systems out of cars that would normally have them, while Ram Trucks has stopped equipping its 1500 pickups with a standard “intelligent” rearview mirror that monitors for blind spots" I have an unpopular opinion, especially when we…
Yeah, the size of these trucks has completely put me off ever wanting one. I miss the small ones from a few decades ago... great for surfing, hauling the ver occasional bit of stuff, just as useful as the ugly beasts of today but far cheaper and more maneuverable and safer. I think we need to start requiring commercial drivers licenses on some of these beasts. They are intentionally designed to be difficult to see ou…
>Yeah, the size of these trucks has completely put me off ever wanting one. I miss the small ones from a few decades ago.
You (statistical you as a HN user, not you personally) say this with one breath but one look at the B pillar of an 80s minivan and you'd start coming up with excuses for why it's not safe enough for your kid.
The same demographics that complain about cars growing do a hell of a lot more complaining about safety and efficiency. So the OEM adds space for crumple zones, thick strong doors, a bulbous front end that pedestrians can gently (lol) bounce off of. And the OEM makes smooth sculpted curves so the vehicle can punch the cleanest possible hole in the air. And then they realize there's no room for people, so they scale it up to make more space so we get a Civic that's bigger than a 90s Accord.
You can't have it all HN, so which is it?
Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences
#600Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yeah, the size of these trucks has completely put me off ever wanting one. I miss the small ones from a few decades ago... great for surfing, hauling the ver occasional bit of stuff, just as useful as the ugly beasts of today but far cheaper and more maneuverable and safer. I think we need to start requiring commercial drivers licenses on some of these beasts. They are intentionally designed to be difficult to see ou…
>Yeah, the size of these trucks has completely put me off ever wanting one. I miss the small ones from a few decades ago. You (statistical you as a HN user, not you personally) say this with one breath but one look at the B pillar of an 80s minivan and you'd start coming up with excuses for why it's not safe enough for your kid. The same demographics that complain about cars growing do a hell of a lot more complainin…
Modern trucks are still huge relative to other vehicles on the road. I want smaller trucks.