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The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

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Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#491

Post by baybal2 »

MangoCoffee wrote: post #161
fsflover wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So how much do USA-made mobile phones cost?

are we talking about assemble in the USA? any low labors cost country can assemble the phone. it doesn't have to be China. Foxconn already have a factory in India and Samsung in Vietnam. design can be done in the USA like Apple. component like corning gorilla glass is made in the USA. chips can be produce in the USA with Intel IDM 2.0 or TSMC in Taiwan. it will cost the same since you can outsource assembly

> component like corning gorilla glass is made in the USA

Unfortunately, most GG in the world is made in China.

> any low labors cost country can assemble the phone

FYI, some parts of USA had already for a few years lower skilled labour costs than South China.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#492

Post by logicalmind »

megablast wrote: post #474
kens wrote: post #337

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A couple of days ago I was watching a dramatic video showing test collisions of old cars vs modern cars. I was surprised by how much safer a 2016 car was than a 1992 car. Not to mention the 1959 death trap Bel Air. (It's alarming though that 1992 is now the olden days.) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TikJC0x65X0

Maybe that was better for society. In those days, dare devils didnt last long. Now, they can crash and kill, and drive again in a few hours.

I often wonder about things like this. It reminds of Tullock's spike:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gordon_Tullock#Tullock's_spike

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#493

Post by mort96 »

cortesoft wrote: post #480
mort96 wrote: post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So what's your definition of a shortage then? We're in a situation where a lot of people who want microchips aren't able to buy them because the suppliers aren't able to produce enough of them. What is the difference between that and a shortage? If we don't produce enough food for everyone to eat, we would be in a similar situation: the price would rise until only the people with the most money could afford food. We…

You can see the definition of a shortage here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shortage The tl;dr is that a shortage is when there are people who are willing to pay more than the market price for an item but something is preventing the market from raising prices.. either because of laws against price gouging, price caps, or because manufacturers have some other incentive not to raise prices.

So to be clear: You wouldn't consider my food shortage example to be a "shortage", as long as nothing is preventing the market from raising prices to meet the demand?

Because if that's the case, then that's okay. We're not actually disagreeing on anything substantial, we're just using different definitions of the word "shortage". It seems like this is perfectly summed up by this paragraph from the wikipedia page you linked:

> In common use, the term "shortage" may refer to a situation where most people are unable to find a desired good at an affordable price, especially where supply problems have increased the price. "Market clearing" happens when all buyers and sellers willing to transact at the prevailing price are able to find partners. There are almost always willing buyers at a lower-than-market-clearing price; the narrower technical definition doesn't consider failure to serve this demand as a "shortage", even if it would be described that way in a social or political context (which the simple model of supply and demand does not attempt to encompass).

It would seem like calling the chip shortage a "shortage" is completely within the common usage of that term.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#494

Post by TomVDB »

neltnerb wrote: post #440
TomVDB wrote: post #281

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Stuff gets obsoleted all the time, it doesn't take a chip shortage. This is just not true. But when it happens, there is usually an announcement well ahead of time (e.g. 1 year), as well as a last time buy option. Historically, there has never been a need to buy the chips of all the boards of a revision. If you are in the position of being able to buy all the components of all the boards you'll ever make for a cert…

I meant the parts that are not common enough to have pin-compatible substitutes from multiple vendors. I have worked with people way above hobbyist level and it is those obnoxious non-standard parts that are the ones that suddenly go out of stock everywhere even if they aren't actually obsoleted. Sometimes they just haven't done a run manufacturing that part number in a while and the stock ran out. I've seen this hap…

“The parts that don’t have a pin compatible substitute” is usually 80% of your total BOM cost. It’s not a helpful clarification.

Let’s take something totally ordinary like an STM32 MCU, and let’s ignore for a moment that there are now some clones on the market, with questionable compatibility at times.

Even though they’re unique parts, there is no way anybody sane would stock up on those for the lifetime of a product revision.

It was never needed and it’s ridiculous to plan for a black swan event like the one we’re experiencing now.

And here’s why: even if you had planned for a sudden shortage of an STM32, you’d still be screwed on some generic components. Because I’ve seen people get stuck recently because they couldn’t source certain generic diodes.

It makes no financial sense to always plan for the worst possible case. The whole reason distributors exist is because they are the buffer that moderates spikes in supply and demand.

The system has worked very well for decades. It’s much better to be right or wrong along with everybody else than to be wrong 99% of the time (and waste margins compared to the competition), and being able to say “I told you so” to the rest once.

And that 99% is not hyperbole.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#495

Post by easton »

gumby wrote: post #277
seltzered_ wrote: post #170

Regarding cars: "Some carmakers are now leaving out high-end features as a result of the chip shortage, according to a Bloomberg report on Thursday. Nissan is reportedly leaving navigation systems out of cars that would normally have them, while Ram Trucks has stopped equipping its 1500 pickups with a standard “intelligent” rearview mirror that monitors for blind spots" I have an unpopular opinion, especially when we…

> Nissan is reportedly leaving navigation systems out of cars that would normally have them Wonder if this will begin a trend. The car navigation system is pretty worthless these days except if you find yourself unexpectedly out of phone range (I still carry paper maps, but these days many phone navigation apps allow you to pre-download your route so you don’t have to worry about being out of coverage).

In all of the recent cars I’ve been in, the navigation system wasn’t present but the screen was for CarPlay/Android Auto. I wonder if the screen is not there at all in these cars or just the GPS parts of the head unit.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#496

Post by Snoozle »

9000 wrote: post #238
Snoozle wrote: post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you give examples of model years and decisions to back up your claim? Last I checked this (common) misconception is patently false.

> Can you give examples of model years and decisions to back up your claim? Actually, I think the burden of proof is on the GP who made the original claim that there are plenty of small trucks for those who want them. Additionally, it's easier for them —or you— to provide a single example of a common small truck than for the parent to provide a comprehensive breakdown of the sizes of all trucks over decades of model…

No, I'm not the one claiming a modern Tacoma is as big as an old F150. Why is the burden on me to prove information presented as fact with no supporting evidence?

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#497

Post by dillondoyle »

NegativeLatency wrote: post #194
nradov wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Smaller trucks are available for those who want them. Most buyers prefer larger trucks.

The Toyota Tacoma is now the size of older F150s, there aren’t many or really any good options for buying a small truck currently.

And it's so hard to find a 2 door. A giant 4 door with a HUGE cab, but a tiny bed?! What's the point of that over an SUV.

I'm buying a car for first time in a decade. I used to want to dirtbag out of a tacoma and have been looking for one but it's hard. Even a 13 year old one seems big - and also crazy expensive ;)

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#498

Post by ArkanExplorer »

nostromo wrote: post #291
neltnerb wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I get that this is a potential big problem, but I had to stop reading when the dog washing company blamed needing to respin a new board on a chip being out of stock due to this. I'm sorry, but if you aren't buying enough chips to build all the boards you want to build of a revision, this is just what happens, chip shortage or no. Stuff gets obsoleted all the time, it doesn't take a chip shortage. Blaming a black swan…

This is largely a result of just-in-time manufacturing. Companies hate holding on to inventory. Most companies now don’t hold on to any extra stock needed to manufacture their products. This is great for your finances in normal times. But don’t complain when there is a shortage and you literally have zero slack for delays and your factory sits idle — that’s the well-known drawback.

No, this is the result of people like Neill Ferguson forecasting that COVID would be multiple times worse than it turned out to be, and Governments and the media believing him.

For example this report from March 2020 was highly influential and predicted 2.2 million deaths in the US in an 'unmitigated epidemic' scenario:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s...

When in reality the official COVID death count in the USA was 580,000. And meanwhile the best public health response seems to have been... to do nothing, given that Sweden has a lower COVID death toll per capita than countries which did lockdown and use masks, and is overall merely #27 in the world for COVID deaths per capita:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deat...

With deaths there in 2020 being only 6% higher than 2018 (and deaths in 2019 were 4% lower than 2018, suggesting mortality displacement explains much of that increase):

https://www.statista.com/statistics/525353/sweden-number-of-...

These sort of mega-flus come and go once a decade (look at 2009 Swine Flu, 1993 Flu, 1988 Flu, 1976 Flu, the Asian flus of the 50s and 60s - all basically forgotten):

https://swprs.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/sweden-monthly-...

But there were political factors in 2020 (a major re-election year in the USA) which drove the completely unusual and unjustified lockdown response. Its unfair to blame JIT manufacturing.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#499

Post by FinanceAnon »

11thEarlOfMar wrote: post #273

If you have a taste for irony, my company makes critical components for semiconductor equipment. If we can't ship, they can't ship. If they can't ship, semiconductor fabs can't increase capacity to meet the demand and solve the shortage. We went line down last week due to shortage of a critical chip for our component. In reality, the shortage is likely self-inflicted, like toilet paper a year ago, but for whatever co…

Interesting. I always imagined supply chains as a flow in one direction, with each further step of the chain making more complicated stuff. But your comment made me realise that supply chains can be more like a loop, with the more complicated components going back to make the earlier steps more efficient.

And a semiconductor factory requires lots of semiconductors themselves. It's like bootstraping a compiler.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#500

Post by [deleted] »

artificialLimbs wrote: post #458
throwawayboise wrote: post #394

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are actually useful vehicles in rural places.

This thread is filled with ignorant city boys who have never done any useful farm work. I cannot imagine how excrutiating it would be for my wife to have to pay a bunch of stupid taxes and follow a bunch of fascist new laws in order to grow her 100sq ft garden every year which, even so small, STILL requires truckloads of compost and mulch since we are just in the process of building our soil. And that's just for the…

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