The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences • Hacker News Board

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#461

Post by simonbarker87 » Sun, May 09, 2021, 8:26 PM UTC

neltnerb wrote: post #193

smiley1437 wrote: post #58

Interestingly, there is an embedded video in that article that explains the issue specific to the automotive shortage - it's because the automotive industry cancelled a lot of chip orders in anticipation of low vehicle demand and that caused chip makers to reduce their production for the kinds of chips that go into cars, and now it takes time to ramp back up: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/03/02/how-the-global-compu…

I get that this is a potential big problem, but I had to stop reading when the dog washing company blamed needing to respin a new board on a chip being out of stock due to this. I'm sorry, but if you aren't buying enough chips to build all the boards you want to build of a revision, this is just what happens, chip shortage or no. Stuff gets obsoleted all the time, it doesn't take a chip shortage. Blaming a black swan…

Many small manufactures can’t afford to order much more than the MOQ on parts. PCBs generally have much higher MOQs than parts you can buy from digi key, I ran a manufacturing business fit years and a PCB MOQ could last me a whole year but I could say cash flow on buying the components more just in time. It’s not “poor planning” it’s working within the realities of your business and it’s limitations (and he’s saving a few hundred in a month at cash low could have been the difference between me just not taking a pay check that month or paying part of an employees wage from my own savings on top of not getting paid myself)

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#462

Post by megablast » Sun, May 09, 2021, 8:26 PM UTC

devit wrote: post #332

robomartin wrote: post #302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As I finished writing that comment (and I truly tried to be constructive as the author is young and inexperienced) I remembered another traumatic event of that era. Every order we received was like precious molecules of much needed oxygen. We got this order from one of our resellers (we had about fifty all over the world at the time) for about half a million dollars in product. This needs to be in the right context:…

Maybe the real lesson of the whole thread is to require customers to pay in advance with a non-reversible wire transfer, or at least via an escrow service contingent on delivering the goods. Or alternatively, somehow buy insurance against the customer failing to pay.

This is great. Thank you. This is like flippantly suggesting we all just drive on the other side of the road. Genius. Ignoring all the complexities involved in getting such an endeavour to happen.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#463

Post by AnimalMuppet » Sun, May 09, 2021, 8:27 PM UTC

throwaway29303 wrote: post #78

devney wrote: post #11

For years I've been asking: Why does my toothbrush have to connect to bluetooth? Why does my refrigerator twitter? These were always useless mis-features and we can hope some of them can get pared down now with the shortage. Bring back old style dumb appliances!

I agree. Why does my toothbrush have to connect to bluetooth? Why does my refrigerator twitter? Analytics etc; to get "relevant" ads. That's all this IoT and data syphoning etc is mostly about. How often do you brush your teeth? What toothpaste do you use? Maybe your dentist needs to know that or, at least, someone from some (big) (tech) company doing data science about it for whatever reason (mostly to show you ads)…

Sure. That's what's in it for some "them" out there somewhere. What's in it for me, the consumer who just wants to brush my teeth?

(Crickets.)

So don't hold your breath for this stuff to take off. Most people won't spend more money to buy something that will benefit someone else.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#464

Post by salawat » Sun, May 09, 2021, 8:28 PM UTC

marcosdumay wrote: post #349

tazjin wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With those gimmicky features there's also only a slim chance that anyone is actually using them because it's often hard to impossible, especially for people with less interest in tech. For example, in a large company like Samsung some product manager might show up and require that users of the food scanning feature have a Samsung account. Now you have to register for a Samsung account on your fridge, but the embedded…

> especially for people with less interest in tech Hum... I can program in something around a dozen languages, can find my way around the Linux kernel code as well as enterprise software, can administer OSes... Yet, I am completely unable to set my fridge's clock (why does it have one?) since I lost its manual. I have spent some time trying. IoT and smart things are a great equalizer. Nobody can handle them. Some tim…

The great VCR clock boss. Ah... Those were the days. Those were how I learned to finagle things that the manual was gone for.

Still not sure whether I should consider the result brain damage though. I can set a VCR clock, but I can't grok people.

Longer I live the more I wonder if I learned patience for the wrong thing.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#465

Post by syshum » Sun, May 09, 2021, 8:28 PM UTC

imtringued wrote: post #420

syshum wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interest on savings accounts is far less than inflation, out side of an emergency fund there is little reason to save cash.

Isn't the benefit of the car loan that you can have emergency funds? I mean, if you save up $5k and get a car loan for $25k you for years you effectively have a 2 year emergency buffer. If you pay off the car up front you may run into liquidity issues until you have restored your emergency fund.

No one should consider using their emergency fund for anything other than emergency's, so I am not sure what your point it

The comment I was responding too talked specifically about saving money in a savings account for the purposes of buying expensive things like a car. It should go with out saying one should not use their emergency fund for these purchases (unless they are an emergency)

Once you have the 6mos to 1 year of expenses in your emergency fund you should divert any other cash to other accounts such as Debt Repayment (providing the debt is more than 5-7% interest or current inflation) and/or investments such as tax advantaged retirement accounts

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#466

Post by yamellasmallela » Sun, May 09, 2021, 8:36 PM UTC

seltzered_ wrote: post #170

Regarding cars: "Some carmakers are now leaving out high-end features as a result of the chip shortage, according to a Bloomberg report on Thursday. Nissan is reportedly leaving navigation systems out of cars that would normally have them, while Ram Trucks has stopped equipping its 1500 pickups with a standard “intelligent” rearview mirror that monitors for blind spots" I have an unpopular opinion, especially when we…

Driving would be pretty damn safe if every single car stopped being an enormous truck or SUV. 99% of the population does not need one. American roads are just so damn unsafe

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#467

Post by newsclues » Sun, May 09, 2021, 8:36 PM UTC

jfoutz wrote: post #120

I think a lot of folks underestimate how fabulously complicated it is to fab a chip. Yes, you can diy it in your garage, here's a wonderful implementation. http://sam.zeloof.xyz/first-ic/ But take a look at the specialized tools they used. Heck, think about proper handling of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrofluoric_acid and this is just a simple amp. imagine trying to make something with lots of gates? Making a si…

We are also dealing with a global logistics network that may rival microchips in complexity.

Food, and fuel for the humans and planes, trains, trucks, ships and bicycles that are essential to get things places to keep the global economy functioning.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#468

Post by sgtnoodle » Sun, May 09, 2021, 8:36 PM UTC

syshum wrote: post #210

vxNsr wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Since 14% of renters are behind on rent and evictions begin June 30, aren’t vehicle repossessions going to kick in July / August? > Presumably, due in part to eviction protection, they have been able to divert all or a portion of their rent payments to keeping up with bad car loans for commute vehicles that often will not be needed. There are gonna be far fewer evictions and/or mortgage defaults than people think,…

It is going to come sooner than that, people keep talking about inflation "coming soon" I think those people are blind because it is already here. Right now if we just get off with a little stagflation that would be a blessing, unfortunately I think it is going to far far worse. All those people depending on government checks are going to get hit hardest by the combination of inflation and the required austerity meas…

I treated myself to a medium frozen yogurt yesterday, no toppings, after carrying a sheet of peg board about a mile. It was $8 after tip. Maybe that's small tourist town price rather than inflation, but all the restaurants in the area definitely jacked prices up 50% over the last two years.

I had to carry the peg board from the in-town hardware store because it wouldn't fit in my Mustang. A Ford Mustang has the same sticker price as it did when I bought mine 10 years ago. So, if there's inflation, Mustangs have comparatively gotten cheaper.

The peg board itself was $18 for a 4'x4' sheet. I haven't looked it up, but I suspect I could have paid 4x cheaper by area by buying full sheets at Home Depot. I would have paid the difference in transportation costs just buying the one sheet, though.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#469

Post by joe_the_user » Sun, May 09, 2021, 8:39 PM UTC

blueblisters wrote: post #419

ajross wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> why are there shortages for these basic chips? Can’t they be made anywhere, and more easily? Not really. Semiconductor fabs are built around "tools" from manufacturers like AMAT and Nikon. Those tool vendors make most of their money from selling new tools for fancy new processes, not supporting 20-year-old stuff. Eventually stuff breaks, and fabs have to offline these older processes. The way this works in the tech…

It’s not just about supporting new processes. Many tool/machine vendors are backlogged by years because they simply don’t have the capacity to make more than a few of those machines every year. Even if someone wanted to invest in new manufacturing, they would likely have to wait a few years to start production. Secondly, some legacy manufacturers of semiconductor parts lost money on their capacity-building investment…

Correct me if I'm wrong, it seems like in the modern economy you have a situation where for many companies, most spending decisions are made long term, on the principle of what promises profits long term, regardless of immediate factor and with the perspective not overcompensating.

This has all sorts of bizarre consequences. In the middle of the PPE shortage - hospitals prevented their employees from buying PPEs themselves but would still only buy PPEs at the lowest price with a long term contract. And you had the Texas company that loudly proclaimed they couldn't sell their PPEs but they also only sold by long term contract. And this was all with people dying.

It's easy to see how manufacturer isn't going to be adding capacity for a puny short-term shortage.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#470

Post by vxNsr » Sun, May 09, 2021, 8:39 PM UTC

imtringued wrote: post #433

syshum wrote: post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is going to come sooner than that, people keep talking about inflation "coming soon" I think those people are blind because it is already here. Right now if we just get off with a little stagflation that would be a blessing, unfortunately I think it is going to far far worse. All those people depending on government checks are going to get hit hardest by the combination of inflation and the required austerity meas…

The economy is projected to grow quickly in 2021 though and even 2022 is projected to grow 3.5% which is still higher than trump's 2.5% average. The debt burden may shrink from sheer growth alone.

Trumps 2.5% avg which includes a global pandemic that all democrats decided required shutting down their economies for. I think context matters and those types of comparisons are dishonest.