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The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

cnbc.com

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Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#171

Post by nitrogen »

perardi wrote: post #143
anonymousab wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> For all the hooplah about smart homes and Alexa and Thread and blah blah blah…most people have dumb lightbulbs, dumb garage doors, and dumb fridges. For now. The profits to be made on microtransactions and subscriptions from internet-requiring features are too gargantuan to pass up, to not become the new norm. And, of course, unblockable ads and tracking. A fun recent example is a motorcycle emergency vest that sto…

Or BMW’s attempt to sell subscriptions to CarPlay and heated seats. https://www.thedrive.com/news/34547/bmw-is-planning-to-sell-... But still…that’s high-margin subscriptions on top of a high-margin product. I am, currently, skeptical we will end up with low-end Internet of Shit for everything, because running that subscription service requires a big up-front investment that’s hard when you’re selling, I don’t know,…

There was recently a subscription dishwasher featured here. It turned out to be easy for the author to hack theirs, but it will get harder over time, just like ink cartridges.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#172

Post by Dylan16807 »

rightbyte wrote: post #112
tomxor wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would be careful to conflate internet connected trash with enough ARM cores and LoC to make your brain melt with the likes of a well placed humble microcontroller.. the mechanical or analogue components they replaced were usually far more temperamental, bulky, expensive and bad at their job. There are exceptional environments like in nuclear power, but for most purposes integrated electronics have improved reliabil…

Ye well I agree. As sibling comment pointed out I rather have a chip then a motor driven timer switch with fancy grooves. My point is that simple systems like coffee cookers don't benefit much from having microcontrollers and you introduce alot of complexity. My 3yo Mocca Master just have a timing relay and a switch for the aux. heater. If they added a IC to have eg. a 'smart heater' or what ever the complexity and r…

I don't know, I wouldn't automatically assume that an arbitrary timing relay is more reliable than an arbitrary 8-bit chip. And it's pretty easy to debug ten lines of code.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#173

Post by rhodozelia »

parsimo2010 wrote: post #152
gostsamo wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually, ASML provides lifetime support for their machines. I don't know for the rest.

But lifetime support doesn’t help if the parts for your machine aren’t available anymore. If your 20 year old machine breaks and there aren’t parts available to fix it, you might get offered an equivalent replacement. If your old chip masks are incompatible with the replacement machine, you’re not immediately able to make what you need. So for some companies, having lifetime support might not help with the manufactur…

The parts were made by humans once, they can be made by humans again. The only question is is it worth it

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#174

Post by cgriswald »

tazjin wrote: post #131
f6v wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Is the computer controlling the engine to be more fuel-efficient needed? No. Is the car even needed? No. We can continue ad absurdum, but it's clear that more screens is added to our lives to: 1. Consume more content 2. As a result, see more ads 3. Finally, buy more stuff I'm not against technology, but electronics producers have been going out of their way to continue growth. That's fine, but I'd love to have a ro…

With those gimmicky features there's also only a slim chance that anyone is actually using them because it's often hard to impossible, especially for people with less interest in tech. For example, in a large company like Samsung some product manager might show up and require that users of the food scanning feature have a Samsung account. Now you have to register for a Samsung account on your fridge, but the embedded…

> With those gimmicky features there's also only a slim chance that anyone is actually using them because it's often hard to impossible, especially for people with less interest in tech.

True life example: I have a washer. It was sold as being internet-connected. There are some mildly interesting use cases I could see for being able to control or check the status of a wash remotely.

Well, it's internet-connected, sure, but you can only connect it to your network with WPS, many app reviews suggest the remote app doesn't work, the feature set is small, and the features it does have are hobbled in ways that make even that set pretty useless—seemingly in order to prevent lawsuits.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#175

Post by nradov »

wizzwizz4 wrote: post #128
ineedasername wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most new cars still suck / Do not offer meaningful new features That really depends on how old your car is. I generally buy instead of lease, and run the car until it starts having regular problems. As a result, my car is 12 years old, and any new one from the last few years is a significant upgrade in terms of features. I don't really want a monthly car payment again, but I'm almost looking forward to when my curren…

If you don't want a monthly car payment, start your “monthly car payment” into a savings account now. You'll end up paying less for your next car if you can maximise the up-front payment.

Current low interest rates on car loans make that approach a bit pointless.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#176

Post by ironmagma »

jimbob45 wrote: post #163
dwighttk wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you don’t want a monthly car payment pay a monthly car payment so later you can have a smaller monthly car payment?

I think the idea is that you accrue the interest yourself instead of paying it to someone else.

The amount of interest accrued in a savings account is pretty wimpy though.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#177

Post by dahfizz »

wizzwizz4 wrote: post #128
ineedasername wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most new cars still suck / Do not offer meaningful new features That really depends on how old your car is. I generally buy instead of lease, and run the car until it starts having regular problems. As a result, my car is 12 years old, and any new one from the last few years is a significant upgrade in terms of features. I don't really want a monthly car payment again, but I'm almost looking forward to when my curren…

If you don't want a monthly car payment, start your “monthly car payment” into a savings account now. You'll end up paying less for your next car if you can maximise the up-front payment.

It would be better to take the car payment and invest that money. You can get a car loan for less that 3% interest, and you can easily make double that with low risk ETFs. Hell, you could invest your savings into a dividend fund and use that to pay your car payment directly.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#178

Post by vxNsr »

bredren wrote: post #98
smiley1437 wrote: post #58

Interestingly, there is an embedded video in that article that explains the issue specific to the automotive shortage - it's because the automotive industry cancelled a lot of chip orders in anticipation of low vehicle demand and that caused chip makers to reduce their production for the kinds of chips that go into cars, and now it takes time to ramp back up: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/03/02/how-the-global-compu…

Since 14% of renters are behind on rent and evictions begin June 30, aren’t vehicle repossessions going to kick in July / August? Presumably, due in part to eviction protection, they have been able to divert all or a portion of their rent payments to keeping up with bad car loans for commute vehicles that often will not be needed. These folks need them for housing unfortunately. If repossessed cars start showing up t…

> Since 14% of renters are behind on rent and evictions begin June 30, aren’t vehicle repossessions going to kick in July / August?

> Presumably, due in part to eviction protection, they have been able to divert all or a portion of their rent payments to keeping up with bad car loans for commute vehicles that often will not be needed.

There are gonna be far fewer evictions and/or mortgage defaults than people think, all those ppl who have been out of work are likely making more money right now than they were at the start of the pandemic just from unemployment, additionally bec they’re unemployed they may qualify for their states’ Medicaid benefits and food stamps, not to mention the free school lunches than many states have turned into a basically tons of raw produce and other various meal-making materials delivered/picked up each week. All those extra benefits mean the raw unemployment dollars go farther compared to a normal income creating an effectively higher $/hr wage than if you just look at the $300-600/wk(+state unemployment).

All this distills down to the fact that everyone has been flush with cash the entire time so much so that I know a few people in March 2020 who were behind on rent but due to all the aforementioned benefits were able to pay the rent they owed. Meaning that people having been making rent and/or mortgage for the most part and have probably been living beyond their (normal) means for the last year. If there’s gonna be any sort of correction it’s not coming until mid-2022 at the earliest.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#179

Post by fukmbas »

ineedasername wrote: post #138

My wife just needed to get a new car, and the salesman was complaining that just as demand was starting to increase the chip shortage means they're barely getting any new ones in stock. And of course the popular models are the ones that are selling out the fastest, meaning people are holding off on purchases because they can't get what they want. My wife's was one of maybe 8 in the entire state that had the features…

Car salesman won't be a job in 20 years

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#180

Post by TigeriusKirk »

bredren wrote: post #98
smiley1437 wrote: post #58

Interestingly, there is an embedded video in that article that explains the issue specific to the automotive shortage - it's because the automotive industry cancelled a lot of chip orders in anticipation of low vehicle demand and that caused chip makers to reduce their production for the kinds of chips that go into cars, and now it takes time to ramp back up: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/03/02/how-the-global-compu…

Since 14% of renters are behind on rent and evictions begin June 30, aren’t vehicle repossessions going to kick in July / August? Presumably, due in part to eviction protection, they have been able to divert all or a portion of their rent payments to keeping up with bad car loans for commute vehicles that often will not be needed. These folks need them for housing unfortunately. If repossessed cars start showing up t…

That's an interesting theory. Anecdotally, I occasionally pass by a lot where repossessed cars are stored. I've noticed there have considerably fewer cars in their lots of late, with whole sections completely empty. I'd guessed bad car loans just weren't being made with the pandemic, but this theory makes a lot more sense.
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