The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences • Hacker News Board

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#61

Post by slver » Sun, May 09, 2021, 2:57 PM UTC

mhh__ wrote: post #56

slver wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most (all?) washing machines have a delayed start. Why would you want your clothes to sit wet, collecting mold, before the drying begins? See, part of being a good programmer is figuring out a solution using the tools you have. Which includes figuring out how existing machines address your issues without requesting they come with a fully programmable API and wi-fi, just so you can delay the drying cycle.

I get the best drying if the machine washes, drains for a bit, then starts drying after that. If I were to do this it would take 4 trips to the washing machine because they didn't think to make it tick over from even washing to drying.

What we've learned here is you need to buy a new washing machine, or maybe before that, read carefully the manual of the one you have.

Thinking you can dry your clothes better than the people who engineered the entire machine and wrote its programs is honestly cracking me up. Do you think the vendors were like "you know what, we don't need this washing machine to dry well".

Even more, what kind of a marketing campaign would such a scriptable machine even have?

"Our washing machine dries really poorly, but we hope every stay at home mom can script it to dry better, so we included a web server and a REST API with it".

They'll go bankrupt, man.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#62

Post by ajross » Sun, May 09, 2021, 2:57 PM UTC

ferros wrote: post #3

> Production of low-margin processors, such as those used to weigh clothes in a washing machine or toast bread in a smart toaster, has also been hit. While most retailers are still able to get their hands on these products at the moment, they may face issues in the months ahead. I understand why the new advanced chips could face shortages, but why are there shortages for these basic chips. Can’t they be made anywhere…

> why are there shortages for these basic chips? Can’t they be made anywhere, and more easily?

Not really. Semiconductor fabs are built around "tools" from manufacturers like AMAT and Nikon. Those tool vendors make most of their money from selling new tools for fancy new processes, not supporting 20-year-old stuff. Eventually stuff breaks, and fabs have to offline these older processes.

The way this works in the tech industry is that "chips" are actually software, so if your old manufacturer isn't keeping up you resynthesize your VHDL or Verilog for a new fab, rev your board design or whatever, and keep going.

But other industries aren't so agile. They have older designs without design teams to support them, or even chip designs that they retain only as masks and not HDL. Those parts don't port cleanly to newer high-volume logic.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#63

Post by kingsuper20 » Sun, May 09, 2021, 2:57 PM UTC

So what happens when Moore's Other Law(tm), the one that says that the size/cost of the manufacturing facility doubles every few years, continues on?

The endgame is single sourcing from one giant company and place (or nearly so) that no one else can compete with but is inherently brittle.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#64

Post by swiley » Sun, May 09, 2021, 2:57 PM UTC

nthj wrote: post #19

FredPret wrote: post #5

I run into this in Factorio all the time

It's fascinating: because Factorio is deterministic, I always build out one massive, consolidated chip factory and distribute chips to other factories from there. But as we see here, in the real world, with droughts and pandemics, this is a risky strategy.

I love clicking on the power poles and watching the interference for segments of the network.

It's awesome how quickly the noise emerges from the deterministic rules.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#65

Post by mhh__ » Sun, May 09, 2021, 2:57 PM UTC

kiddico wrote: post #47

mhh__ wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Connected devices are a good thing - i.e. I should be able to make the washing machine scriptable from my computer, but I bet these solutions are always crap because they are implemented in a hurry by engineers who don't understand either the hardware or software well enough to make it work, so you end up with quasi-useless boss-pleasers like we have now.

Connected washing machines continue to make little sense to me. The only benefit I can think of is a notification when it's done. Otherwise all the interactions with it are done in person. (loading/unloading etc) What would you want to script?

My washing machine doesn't automatically starting draining or drying after finishing, so I have to go up and down the stairs, and it has a mind of its own as to when it finishes.

An ESP-32 is about 2 quid last time I checked, I have many, and I would happily attach it to the machine if not for the fact that it doesn't belong to me.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#66

Post by cortesoft » Sun, May 09, 2021, 2:57 PM UTC

mort96 wrote: post #41

cortesoft wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is always what happens when prices go up. The whole point is to reduce the number of buyers who want the product at that price so that there is enough supply to fill the remaining demand. That is how a supply and demand curve works.

But you still have a shortage, right? People still want microchips. In ideal conditions, the price will stabilize at the level where every chip gets sold, but nobody who wants to pay that price has to wait in line for too long. But if you reach that point, you still have a whole lot of buyers who still want a microchip, but who are unable to pay for them at those elevated prices - i.e a shortage. With fuel, you can r…

The idea is that if you need it bad enough, you can find one at the higher price. If prices didn’t go up, you wouldn’t be able to find one at any price.

Some of the people who would want a chip at $x don’t want it at $x*2, and will just never buy one unless the price drops. If the price never drops because supply is never increased, then they will simply never purchase it.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#67

Post by maltalex » Sun, May 09, 2021, 2:58 PM UTC

AlexC04 wrote: post #20

simias wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know but maybe one of the factors is that given how cheap microntrollers have become it's not uncommon to use an "overpowered" integrated chip just for ease of development. Suppose that you have to drive some LEDs on a washing machine, do you bother developing some optimized bespoke circuitry with discrete components or do you just slap a ~2$ 100+MHz 32bit Cortex controller that will let you implement all the…

It makes me wonder if it would be possible to build a chip-manufacturing plant for any reasonable amount of money to produce these chips that don't need to be 7nm GPU powerhouses, but like the old clunker chips that can't get attention from the big guys. Almost like starting a "generics" business in pharma medication but for older chipsets. I'm sure there's a great trade to be had in producing the lower end stuff.

I think that's exactly what some of the old fabs are doing.

When a new process node comes out not all fabs are immediately upgraded. Fabs with older tech simply start producing simpler chips while the new ones pump out cutting edge ones.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#68

Post by im3w1l » Sun, May 09, 2021, 2:58 PM UTC

jpm_sd wrote: post #12

jamiek88 wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My understanding is there is a substrate shortage as well as a foundry slot shortage.

This is correct. The industry is currently constrained on everything from water to wafers, in addition to fab time slots. Everyone is panic buying too, so shortages are getting amplified.

I'm a bit out of the loop. What is the cause of this? Since they are hitting multiple constraints at once I guess it's a demand spike?

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#69

Post by mort96 » Sun, May 09, 2021, 2:58 PM UTC

kova12 wrote: post #31

ArkanExplorer wrote: post #24

Ban cryptocurrency exchanges and some of the wafer capacity currently being dedicated to mining will return to regular use (or we can just wait for the ETH2 merge, then ban the purchase of PoW cyrpto). Secondly get workers back to work by ending COVID-era unemployment payments and workplace restrictions.

Also ban activists whos solution to everything is to ban stuff. Like war on drugs didn't teach them anything

That sounds really simplistic?

There are some problems for which banning isn't a solution, but there are some problems for which banning is actually a viable solution. Should we "learn" from the war on drugs and reverse the ban on CFCs? Should we avoid banning toxic substances from food?

You're gonna need a better argument than "activists who want to ban stuff should have learned from the war on drugs". You're gonna need to argue why banning cryptocurrencies is more like banning weed and not like banning CFCs.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#70

Post by Tuna-Fish » Sun, May 09, 2021, 2:58 PM UTC

AlexC04 wrote: post #20

simias wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know but maybe one of the factors is that given how cheap microntrollers have become it's not uncommon to use an "overpowered" integrated chip just for ease of development. Suppose that you have to drive some LEDs on a washing machine, do you bother developing some optimized bespoke circuitry with discrete components or do you just slap a ~2$ 100+MHz 32bit Cortex controller that will let you implement all the…

It makes me wonder if it would be possible to build a chip-manufacturing plant for any reasonable amount of money to produce these chips that don't need to be 7nm GPU powerhouses, but like the old clunker chips that can't get attention from the big guys. Almost like starting a "generics" business in pharma medication but for older chipsets. I'm sure there's a great trade to be had in producing the lower end stuff.

The problem with your idea is that you are competing against obsolete high-end fabs, which have already paid back all their capital costs long ago. In a normal market, it's pretty much impossible for you to match them in price if you still need to pay yours.

Still, GloFo basically made this their plan, when they pivoted from the very highest-end chipmaking into FD-SOI, which is less performant but cheaper to design for.