No, I'm not comparing to "covid stops spreading", but I'm also not assuming (as you seem to be) "everyone will eventually get it in the way whoever got it so far got it".
> Each scenario has associated cost.
There are other scenarios, e.g. https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2021-02-09-common-asthma-treatment... shows a cheap widely available steroid inhaler has comparable efficiency to vaccines in the KPIs studied by the Pfizer trial. I'm not saying it should be used instead of a vaccine; but it's also not true that your list is close to exhaustive. We keep finding out new stuff. In the first 2-3 months, the intubation+ventilation regime was counterproductive; it took a while to realize, but now we know that. We also know (e.g. from Florida and Texas) that the NPI are much less effective than they were assumed to be.
> Each and every vaccine up to now is orders of magnitude safer than Covid for the vast majority of people (YMMV!).
That's ... not been shown. The Israeli study I linked to above (a report of it) says this assertion might be wrong for Pfizer for the sizable group of 16-30 ; The British think that's not true for AZ under age 30 ; many countries in the EU think that's not true for AZ under the age of 50 ; Norway thinks that's not true for frail elderly.
And basically, we only have short term safety data (pfizer: less than a year for 20K people, less than 6 months for the rest), so even if it is true that "every one will eventually get it", it does NOT follow that it makes sense to vaccinate everyone right now -- if it takes 20 years until "everyone eventually gets it", and severe side effects appear 2 years later, then, no, it doesn't make sense.
I linked a BMJ+Science article that showed for a similarly EUAd vaccine, "Pandemrix" in 2009 that it took over a year to figure out that it was causing narcolepsy and worse than the flu it was supposed to stop. It's not just a theoretic possibility - it happened in a very similar setting just 11 years ago, and the causes are NOT perfectly understood to the point that you can guarantee it won't happen again.
> many are conjectured to be due to the 'SARS-Cov-2 ingredients' (e.g. myocarditis). Heuristically speaking you can choose between Covid or a very very very mild version of Covid.
You could be right, but that's not at all clear. This paper from Nature Immunology https://www.nature.com/articles/s41590-020-00808-x.pdf shows that 80% of unexposed people have a T-cell response to SARS-Cov-2 - that is, they have cross-immunity.
It could be that for those 80%, that response would be enough to stop the virus before it can get systemic traction, whereas the vaccine is essentially guaranteed to generate systemic effect. I asked an immunologist, who said he doesn't know the answer and does not believe anyone does without measuring.