Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic • Hacker News Board

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#711

Post by Kiro » Fri, Apr 30, 2021, 7:07 AM UTC

ericb wrote: post #463

Kiro wrote: post #321

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1% mask usage in Sweden and we also have extremely low flu numbers.

Interesting. Do people still associate indoors in large numbers, or is that unchanged as well? As in, could behavioral change be a driver? I also wonder, with far less numerical opportunity to spread and mutate, if the flu wasn't able to "grow" a good candidate with good evolutionary fitness this year, so distancing and mask usage affect countries even where they aren't practiced.

No, we have other restrictions and recommendations resulting in various degrees of social distancing. Definitely less than countries that did lockdowns but it's probably as you say a combination of our own measures and other countries' more rigid restrictions (including masks) killing off the international transmission routes. So we should be thankful that other countries took this more seriously if that's the case.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#712

Post by CodeGlitch » Fri, Apr 30, 2021, 7:17 AM UTC

jaytaylor wrote: post #552

sebmellen wrote: post #520

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just a thought — the trick might be trying to be less of a germaphobe to build up your immune system (not medical advice).

Also not medical advice, but since I stopped being a germaphobe in 2016, I haven't gotten sick. Maybe it has to do with being less stressed in general, too. YMMV :)

So after my daughter was born 6 years ago I had to reduce my germaphobe habits, simply because it's not possible/practicable. Perhaps after a few more years of being around young children I'll build up my immune system...

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#713

Post by piokoch » Fri, Apr 30, 2021, 7:21 AM UTC

I am curious what are going to be consequences of this in coming year? Less flu overall? More dangerous flu overall as our immune system forgot it?

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#714

Post by dizzystar » Fri, Apr 30, 2021, 7:34 AM UTC

SV_BubbleTime wrote: post #659

dizzystar wrote: post #650

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I took the PCR test back in November. I looked up all the data I could and it wasn't really possible find any straight answers, but this is the closest I could come up with: If you test positive, you likely had it and can spread it. If you test negative, there is about a 40% of a false negative, but it also depends on when you were exposed, so you'll end up negative if you are outside the window... post symptom, you…

> and it was bad enough that the testing company lost their contract (whether they were fudging numbers or not is debatable, I can't find any good information on it either) Ah yea. That happened in California and Florida for sure, probably other places too. In Florida there were two labs specially that were reporting 100% positive for weeks, I don’t care how badly they had it, that wasn’t actually possible. You proba…

This one was over having too many false negatives.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#715

Post by makomk » Fri, Apr 30, 2021, 7:34 AM UTC

javagram wrote: post #653

samatman wrote: post #354

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Small but important correction: nothing can make epidemiological spread non-exponential. Driving base reproduction below one additional infection per infected patient means the exponent is less than one, so the incidence of the disease rapidly decreases. This decrease is also exponential by definition: infection is simply an exponential process, and an exponential equation doesn't stop being what it is when the expon…

> Which will be "fun" because our societies now have a hyperactive immune system, and there will be considerable political pressure to "do something" about the next flu wave. So, do something by taking a flu vaccine like is already available and recommended for annual use by the CDC?

The flu vaccine isn't hugely effective at the best of times, and with flu disappearing worldwide and global travel locked down I don't see how they'll even be able to figure out what strains to target for the next one.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#716

Post by wesleywt » Fri, Apr 30, 2021, 7:37 AM UTC

aarondia wrote: post #300

gorbachev wrote: post #262

I was just commenting to a co-worker my entire family hasn't been sick since the pandemic started. That is very unusual for a family with young children. No flu, no stomach viruses, absolutely nothing for more than a year now. Thankfully no covid-19 either.

This year was a great experiment in person hygiene. It was the healthiest I have ever been for a full year, no colds, stomach bugs, anything. I'm not sure which practices I'll continue, but its definitely shown me that I have wayyyy more control over my health than I previously thought. Curious what others think are the most effective continued practices. Seems like social distancing isn't super reasonable, but maybe…

It might be that you working from home. I think you get infected at work and the kids at school.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#717

Post by Roark66 » Fri, Apr 30, 2021, 7:39 AM UTC

timr wrote: post #271

Majromax wrote: post #237

This should not come as a surprise, and it was largely predictable from the outset. The flu has a base reproduction number (R0) less than 2 ( https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/2020/12/07/covid-19... ). Covid has an R0 in the vicinity of 2.5 ( https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena... ). In the meantime, public health measures like masking and distancing will work against both viruses. If…

> This should not come as a surprise, and it was largely predictable from the outset....the flu has a base reproduction number (R0) less than 2....Covid has an R0 in the vicinity of 2.5....In the meantime, public health measures like masking and distancing will work against both viruses....there's really no need for conspiracy theorizing. Assuming that this is due to "masking and distancing" and the small difference…

>FWIW, my current favored hypothesis is that the closure of schools, and possibly travel, significantly affected the spread of flu. Unlike Covid, kids are a significant vector of spread for influenza. It's one of those little facts about Covid that is...politically incorrect...to acknowledge right now.

You say "unlike covid". Maybe I'm biased because half of my family was infected with covid by a 6 year old(everyone's fine now) . Also here in Poland all 3 of our covid "waves" came few weeks after kids went back to schools (no masks are required at schools here, because feelings). It is obvious kids at schools are a very significant spread factor second only to spread at the workplace (also no need for masks at the workplace for some stupid reason unless you are public facing).

It is infuriating that tens of thousands of people have to die, because idiot politicians make policy based on stupid factors. For example, it would be inconvenient for everyone at workplaces to have to wear masks so let's tell them to ensure desks are 1.5m apart and everything is fine despite the fact they are not. There was even a local study done recently that estimated 40% of all covid cases were infected at the workplace. This info was major news for few days, then nothing changed and everyone forgot about it.

Also, the pinnacle of stupid (bordering on malice - hopefully it will be prosecuted eventually) is making covid treatment policy based on expected drug availability not on what works. It has been proved recently(9th of April) in Lancet corticosteroids given early on lower the incidence of hospitalisation a lot. However, despite many letters from the public "official medical guidelines" in PL still say the exact opposite using an irrelevant study as justification.

* The study is irrelevant because they measured efficacy of those steroids on people that are already hospitalised,it found no impact on death rate of already intubated people. The study authors also extrapolated their research of hospitalised intubated people to people pre-hospitalisation and for some reason wrote in their abstract corticosteroids given early actually have detrimental effect (no proof of this assumption in their study whatsoever).

Then the second study comes out that measures efficacy of (inhaled) corticosteroids in real early covid patients.It finds it significantly lowers development of symptoms that require hospitalisation. Everyone ignores it. Meanwhile we have over 80 thousand "extra" deaths in a country one tenth the size of US.

Oh, and my claim is that people making decisions on covid policy are perfectly aware of their wrongdoing because transcripts of their meetings are mysteriously unavailable.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#718

Post by marvin » Fri, Apr 30, 2021, 7:39 AM UTC

LeCow wrote: post #559

marvin wrote: post #531

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A well-known Norwegian economic commentator pointed this out in a newspaper article a few weeks ago. You'll eventually be forced to maintain an R~=1 no matter what you do, so it's best for everyone if your cases have a low baseline when that happens. The measures will be the same, but the baseline risk can either be terrible or okay. You can almost see the phenomenon in real time during this pandemic. Countries that…

The economic deviation caused by governments over reacting is your biggest pressure. Unless you shut down all travel, bars, restaurants, schools, universities and dating. Then all of this will come back in the future and kick you in the teeth. Either we're going to have to accept this as a way of life, which is more detrimental. Or we're pushing off the inevitable.

No one has overreacted, unless you accept an outcome that both leads to improvised individual social distancing and the even worse worse economic devastation that follows.

This was uncertain to most people last year, but now we’ve seen so many examples that it really shouldn’t be so controversial any longer. But if it wasn’t, we wouldn’t be discussing it.

The covid virus is evolved to fit exactly into the niche of societal behavior where it will be a big fucking problem but not so bad that it’s immediately obvious to enough people.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#719

Post by somewhereoutth » Fri, Apr 30, 2021, 7:42 AM UTC

kiawe_fire wrote: post #641

michaelmrose wrote: post #605

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We will be lucky if we can normalize washing your hands more and staying home when you are sick. The idea that we are going to react to flu with fanatical zeal and need to prepare to resist public health measures is a fantasy promoted by those who are preparing to fight a war that exists only in their own heads.

We've had, in the past year, at various times, public policies that have prevented grocery stores from selling "non-essential" items such as towels and blankets (while allowing alcohol), halted critical health services such as cancer treatments, and led to people from the same household being verbally and physically assaulted for not distancing or wearing masks - after a period of time in which people were verbally c…

OR we can shutdown social media. A lot of the misinformation has been spread through social media - it has a tendency to amplify extremism by providing 'echo chambers' people can select into to reinforce their preconceptions.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#720

Post by hrktb » Fri, Apr 30, 2021, 7:42 AM UTC

ch4s3 wrote: post #347

llampx wrote: post #306

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In Germany meanwhile it has become a meme that "schools are not the driver off the pandemic" stated by all politicians who are obviously taking a page from the Iraqi information Ministers playbook.

That's been borne out by data from several countries, children don't seem to readily spread COVID-19. Adults are the primary spreaders, which is sort of the reverse of the flu.

Except when they do: they were only at lower risk, not no risk, and the new variants also had more and heavier effects on children.

Compounding this with parents having to bring their children to school, thus generating more contacts than just kids alone.

All in all, there was some data at the root of the policy, but sending kids to school is still a shitty proposition from a safety perspective.