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Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

scientificamerican.com

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Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#351

Post by sevencolors »

rubicon33 wrote: post #318
aarondia wrote: post #300

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This year was a great experiment in person hygiene. It was the healthiest I have ever been for a full year, no colds, stomach bugs, anything. I'm not sure which practices I'll continue, but its definitely shown me that I have wayyyy more control over my health than I previously thought. Curious what others think are the most effective continued practices. Seems like social distancing isn't super reasonable, but maybe…

You can do a LOT. I haven't been sick once in 6+ years because I do the following: 1) Almost never eat out. Home cooked meals that I've prepped / washed. This was single handedly the biggest factor that completely removed "getting sick" from my life. 2) Hand wash before touching face, or food. 3) Avoid sick people. If I hear someone coughing or sneezing, I move away from them. Call me a germ freak, I don't care, I've…

Well eating at home can also have failures. Few months ago I accidentally ate some hot sauce that should have been refrigerated but was stored on a room temp. shelf.

Looked fine when i ate it but was violently sick for 3 days and thought i had covid :(

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#352

Post by daanlo »

DoingIsLearning wrote: post #268
Majromax wrote: post #237

This should not come as a surprise, and it was largely predictable from the outset. The flu has a base reproduction number (R0) less than 2 ( https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/2020/12/07/covid-19... ). Covid has an R0 in the vicinity of 2.5 ( https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena... ). In the meantime, public health measures like masking and distancing will work against both viruses. If…

Non virologist naive question, if we apply all these measures targeting SARS-COV2 and it also creates a massive negative pressure on flu viruses, is there a risk that this applies an adaptive pressure to select for a future uber infectious new flu strain?

My layman understanding is that it doesn‘t work that way. Less spread = less chance of mutation = less chance of uber infectious new flu strain.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#353

Post by gjs278 »

rubicon33 wrote: post #318
aarondia wrote: post #300

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This year was a great experiment in person hygiene. It was the healthiest I have ever been for a full year, no colds, stomach bugs, anything. I'm not sure which practices I'll continue, but its definitely shown me that I have wayyyy more control over my health than I previously thought. Curious what others think are the most effective continued practices. Seems like social distancing isn't super reasonable, but maybe…

You can do a LOT. I haven't been sick once in 6+ years because I do the following: 1) Almost never eat out. Home cooked meals that I've prepped / washed. This was single handedly the biggest factor that completely removed "getting sick" from my life. 2) Hand wash before touching face, or food. 3) Avoid sick people. If I hear someone coughing or sneezing, I move away from them. Call me a germ freak, I don't care, I've…

i’d rather be sick than live this pathetic life you are describing

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#354

Post by samatman »

Majromax wrote: post #308
timr wrote: post #271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This should not come as a surprise, and it was largely predictable from the outset....the flu has a base reproduction number (R0) less than 2....Covid has an R0 in the vicinity of 2.5....In the meantime, public health measures like masking and distancing will work against both viruses....there's really no need for conspiracy theorizing. Assuming that this is due to "masking and distancing" and the small difference…

> and the small difference in R0 is crude thinking. Given the reproduction number appears as the base of an exponent, I would not consider the difference "small." If influenza has a typical R0 of about 2, reducing contacts by 50% would make its growth non-exponential. If covid has a typical R0 of about 2.5, doing the same would require a further 20% reduction of contacts, to 40% of baseline rather than 50%. Since pop…

Small but important correction: nothing can make epidemiological spread non-exponential. Driving base reproduction below one additional infection per infected patient means the exponent is less than one, so the incidence of the disease rapidly decreases. This decrease is also exponential by definition: infection is simply an exponential process, and an exponential equation doesn't stop being what it is when the exponent is less than one.

The steady state is exactly 1, which is like balancing a pencil on its point.

It's plausible that two things happened here: the various local restrictions reduced the R0 of flu below 1, and the border closures kept mutations from traveling: and influenza is notoriously mutation-prone.

These can combine to practically extirpate influenza. Unfortunately, the effect is temporary, and the next flu season is likely to be a real doozy.

Which will be "fun" because our societies now have a hyperactive immune system, and there will be considerable political pressure to "do something" about the next flu wave. This must be resisted but I'm not optimistic.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#355

Post by havewetsalt »

realreality wrote: post #329
havewetsalt wrote: post #324

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's conspiracy theory by definition if it falls outside the official narrative. So even science can be a conspiracy theory. In fact, real science has a tendency to be viewed (by non-scientists, it should go without saying) as conspiracy theory insofar as it challenges the official narrative, and invokes complicated explanations, rather than a nice simple answer.

You need a conspiracy for it to be a conspiracy theory. Without that, it's just a theory (or, more likely, a hypothesis).

No, the modern sense is literally just a euphemism for dissent.

(of course the modern sense of literal is literally figurative.)

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#356

Post by Pyramus »

timr wrote: post #315
Majromax wrote: post #308

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> and the small difference in R0 is crude thinking. Given the reproduction number appears as the base of an exponent, I would not consider the difference "small." If influenza has a typical R0 of about 2, reducing contacts by 50% would make its growth non-exponential. If covid has a typical R0 of about 2.5, doing the same would require a further 20% reduction of contacts, to 40% of baseline rather than 50%. Since pop…

> Given the reproduction number appears as the base of an exponent, I would not consider the difference "small." The difference in measurement is small, relative to the error in measurement. Look at the error bars on the R0 estimates in that paper. Influenza runs from 1.06 to 3.4 . You are trying to make micrometer inferences from a parameter where our best estimates are measured in libraries of congress.

You are dodging parent's point:

> I have seen no credible evidence that typical (non-pandemic) influenza has an R0 greater than that of SARS-CoV-2. If you have a citation handy to the contrary, I'd be interested in seeing it.

Even if the difference in R of influenza and SARS-Cov-2 was only 0.1 (and there is no evidence suggesting the average difference is that small) and assuming both pathogens spread in a similar fashion [1], then over time SARS-Cov-2 will fluctuate around the meta-stable point of 1.0 and as a result influenza will decrease exponentially.

[1] https://virologyj.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1743-42...

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#357

Post by jccooper »

bla3 wrote: post #95
jccooper wrote: post #44

You always fight the last war. Covid measures started as flu measures, and to a great extent still are even though we now know (and knew fairly early) that the transmission modes differ significantly.

I thought we know by now that transmission mode is more similar than initially thought? That is, it's mostly airborne for both covid and flu.

Flu has significant fomite transmission, both direct and from emissions, where CoV-2 basically has none. Aerosol transmission is present in flu, but nowhere near as strong as CoV-2. There are definitely some overlaps, like direct large droplet transmission (which make measures like masks work for both.)

Sanitation and "social distancing" work for flu, but coronavirus is mainly about ventilation.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#358

Post by gjs278 »

papito wrote: post #285
gorbachev wrote: post #262

I was just commenting to a co-worker my entire family hasn't been sick since the pandemic started. That is very unusual for a family with young children. No flu, no stomach viruses, absolutely nothing for more than a year now. Thankfully no covid-19 either.

Stomach viruses. Where in the world are you? No, seriously - where? Because here in the United States people don't wash their hands before eating. It's fucking gross. I always sanitize my hands with alcohol pads before eating out - ALWAYS. But the others grab subway poles, handles, those nasty menus, and THEN they grab that sandwich with the same hands . If anything should come out of this pandemic, it should be Amer…

lol. ive never washed my hands before eating in my life and ive never gotten sick from it. I wish I could post more than 2 comments every couple hours to make fun of the germ freaks on here, but this one wins too. all that extra work you are doing is worth nothing but our amusement now.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#359

Post by math0ne »

timr wrote: post #271
Majromax wrote: post #237

This should not come as a surprise, and it was largely predictable from the outset. The flu has a base reproduction number (R0) less than 2 ( https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/2020/12/07/covid-19... ). Covid has an R0 in the vicinity of 2.5 ( https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena... ). In the meantime, public health measures like masking and distancing will work against both viruses. If…

> This should not come as a surprise, and it was largely predictable from the outset....the flu has a base reproduction number (R0) less than 2....Covid has an R0 in the vicinity of 2.5....In the meantime, public health measures like masking and distancing will work against both viruses....there's really no need for conspiracy theorizing. Assuming that this is due to "masking and distancing" and the small difference…

Where I live in Canada schools never really closed and we are seeing the same thing.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#360

Post by andreygrehov »

ceejayoz wrote: post #342
andreygrehov wrote: post #335

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm confused. Those are all different authors. I'm saying "trash publication" because I had experience working with Forbes. Once again, one can publish at Forbes whatever the hell they want. It costs a few hundred bucks.

> I'm confused. Those are all different authors. From the "Medical Hypotheses" journal the Forbes article is criticizing for poor editorial control, and citing those as examples. At least read the claim you're attempting to debunk. > Once again, one can publish at Forbes whatever the hell they want. It costs a few hundred bucks. Apparently that's also true for the "Medical Hypotheses" journal.

I read the Reuters fact-check article. In fact, there are no facts. It says that the publication has been retracted, but from what I can see, that's not true. CDC's current response on masks is positive, however their initial response was negative. Same for WHO. All in all, Reuters rely on a single source – Nature. Nature.com is indeed a legitimate source, however the article is massive, so I can't say for sure if relying on that single source is good enough to make a conclusion.

Edit: also, _nobody_ gives a crap about masks in Florida. However, death rates are the same as in California: https://apnews.com/article/public-health-health-florida-coro...

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