Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

Post by michaelmrose » Fri, Apr 30, 2021, 1:28 AM UTC

samatman wrote: post #465

Majromax wrote: post #373

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The steady state is exactly 1, which is like balancing a pencil on its point. At exactly one, it's indeterminate; you could see a subexponential growth or decay. With no exponential terms remaining, lower-order terms that are ordinarily hidden by exponential growth become the dominant observables. (Since epidemic spread is also random, you're much more likely to see the stochastic terms show up in the overall stati…

We're not talking about a single flu season, effectively we're talking about skipping an entire flu season. Influenza is pretty promiscuous. In normal conditions, very few people aren't exposed to it: either their existing immune resistance (vaccinated or otherwise) is up to the job, or it isn't. Mutation is therefore the primary driver of flu, year upon year. This is why vaccines are continually reformulated for a b…

Post by Fomite » Fri, Apr 30, 2021, 1:30 AM UTC

Agathos wrote: post #327

papito wrote: post #285

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Stomach viruses. Where in the world are you? No, seriously - where? Because here in the United States people don't wash their hands before eating. It's fucking gross. I always sanitize my hands with alcohol pads before eating out - ALWAYS. But the others grab subway poles, handles, those nasty menus, and THEN they grab that sandwich with the same hands . If anything should come out of this pandemic, it should be Amer…

A norovirus will laugh at your hand sanitizer, as will most other non-enveloped viruses.

Post by michaelmrose » Fri, Apr 30, 2021, 1:33 AM UTC

kiawe_fire wrote: post #478

toss1 wrote: post #387

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> there will be considerable political pressure to "do something" about the next flu wave. This must be resisted Why on earth does it make sense to resist sensible public health measures to reduce the influenza to R0 The measures would not need to be nearly as drastic as those for COVID ("normal" R0 of 2 vs 2.5+), so more handwashing (good to minimize a broad spectrum of pathogens), masks (already culturally ordinar…

Those measures are not entirely different from the measures previously suggested, though. Obviously your quoted poster’s concerns are less about “hand washing”, “wear a mask if you have symptoms”, and “stay home” while you recover, and instead are about an overreaction in which entire businesses are forced to shut down, children without symptoms are forced to wear masks even as they run and play, and people are forci…

Post by throwaway803453 » Fri, Apr 30, 2021, 1:33 AM UTC

zanmat0 wrote: post #497

aarondia wrote: post #300

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This year was a great experiment in person hygiene. It was the healthiest I have ever been for a full year, no colds, stomach bugs, anything. I'm not sure which practices I'll continue, but its definitely shown me that I have wayyyy more control over my health than I previously thought. Curious what others think are the most effective continued practices. Seems like social distancing isn't super reasonable, but maybe…

Have you been sleeping more because of WFH? That could be the major factor here.

Post by michaelmrose » Fri, Apr 30, 2021, 1:34 AM UTC

sokoloff wrote: post #539

jampekka wrote: post #529

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How about a culture and social support system where you can just stay home and rest if you feel something's up? Probably a lot more efficient than a mask, and would probably help with lots of other problems as well.

Plenty of people, hourly, gig, and self-employed people don’t get paid if they don’t work. You might be able to force some of those to be paid while sick-not-working, but the last category will be very difficult to address without either missing a lot of folks or creating tons of fraud and grift risk (and represent a lot of interactions with the public).