Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic • Hacker News Board

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#641

Post by kiawe_fire » Fri, Apr 30, 2021, 2:32 AM UTC

michaelmrose wrote: post #605

kiawe_fire wrote: post #478

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those measures are not entirely different from the measures previously suggested, though. Obviously your quoted poster’s concerns are less about “hand washing”, “wear a mask if you have symptoms”, and “stay home” while you recover, and instead are about an overreaction in which entire businesses are forced to shut down, children without symptoms are forced to wear masks even as they run and play, and people are forci…

We will be lucky if we can normalize washing your hands more and staying home when you are sick. The idea that we are going to react to flu with fanatical zeal and need to prepare to resist public health measures is a fantasy promoted by those who are preparing to fight a war that exists only in their own heads.

We've had, in the past year, at various times, public policies that have prevented grocery stores from selling "non-essential" items such as towels and blankets (while allowing alcohol), halted critical health services such as cancer treatments, and led to people from the same household being verbally and physically assaulted for not distancing or wearing masks - after a period of time in which people were verbally chastised for wearing masks when the official stance was not to.

We've sorted a lot of this out over the past year, but there is an all time distrust of institutions surrounding both policymakers and the public health recommendations informing them, and there's a reason for it.

We can either help assuage people's fears (whether you see them as founded or unfounded) by empathizing with their concerns and experiences and addressing them while ensuring that any measures enacted remain rooted in science that we can trust...

OR we can be part of the problem for why there's so much distrust, by ignoring anyone who may have real experiences that have caused them to lose trust in our science and health institutions, and telling them that it's all in their head.

I strongly hope for the former, myself.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#642

Post by tehlike » Fri, Apr 30, 2021, 2:35 AM UTC

rubicon33 wrote: post #550

tehlike wrote: post #475

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think your anecdata proves anything but your own experience. 1. I eat out a lot, including junk food every now and then. 2. Of course I hand wash, but i would not say "before touching face" per-se, but as often as you'd normally expect (restroom breaks, before preparing food and/or eating, after coming from outside). 3. I don't really run away from sick people. I simply am indifferent. I still never get sick,…

Yes well, I would hope if you've learned nothing during this pandemic it's that there is no one-size-fits-all immune system. Some 20 year olds are dying from COVID, others are barely noticing they have symptoms. All suggestions are de facto "anecdata". What works for me, may not work for you. I used to get "food poisoning" once a year or so, but haven't ever since I stopped eating out. That you are more resilient to…

That's exactly what i said.

I am actually in the "exposing yourself to decent variations of microbes is actually good for your long term health" camp. Not everyone can do that, of course, especially the immunocompromised. I get that.

You are telling your experience as if it's one size fits all. It's not. There is a reasonable case to actually exposing kids and one's self to microbes early on. Similar story for food allergies - exposing kids early on actually helps them not have those allergies, for example.

Anyway, like i said, not one size fits all, which is what I was against at in your argument. You made it sound like it was.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#643

Post by joshuamorton » Fri, Apr 30, 2021, 2:37 AM UTC

timr wrote: post #430

Pyramus wrote: post #422

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry to be harsh here, but that's exactly what I meant by dodging: Parent asked for evidence that the R0 of influenza is higher on average than the R0 of SARS-Cov-2. If there are no studies to show, refer to an opinion of an epidemiologist or any other expert in the spread of infectious diseases. You seem to argue against a vast field of computer scientists, mathematicians, physicists, biologists, medical experts th…

> Sorry to be harsh here, but that's exactly what I meant by dodging: Parent asked for evidence that the R0 of influenza is higher on average than the R0 of SARS-Cov-2. Burden is on the parent to prove their claim, not for me to disprove claims advanced without evidence. All current estimates for R0 have wide, overlapping confidence intervals that make it impossible to differentiate them from other viruses. The best…

> Burden is on the parent to prove their claim, not for me to disprove claims advanced without evidence.

Multiple people have cited many papers that all generally agree with the trend that influenza has a lower r0. You've discounted those by making what are ultimately statistically unsound claims.

> I cited just such a paper. Please refer to it

The paper you cited supports the other person's contention: that r0 of influenza is lower than that of covid.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#644

Post by tehlike » Fri, Apr 30, 2021, 2:38 AM UTC

fireattack wrote: post #563

tehlike wrote: post #475

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think your anecdata proves anything but your own experience. 1. I eat out a lot, including junk food every now and then. 2. Of course I hand wash, but i would not say "before touching face" per-se, but as often as you'd normally expect (restroom breaks, before preparing food and/or eating, after coming from outside). 3. I don't really run away from sick people. I simply am indifferent. I still never get sick,…

I think junk food place in general is actually more hygienic.

Might be. It also spans to occasional food trucks every now and then, which i would probably not call super clean (though can't claim to know either). "IF a food is tasty, you probably don't want to know under what conditions it's prepared" is something i believe in (but don't necessarily seek for - ie if somewhere is disturbingly unclean, i would probably skip, but otherwise don't care).

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#645

Post by tehlike » Fri, Apr 30, 2021, 2:40 AM UTC

retrac wrote: post #509

tehlike wrote: post #475

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think your anecdata proves anything but your own experience. 1. I eat out a lot, including junk food every now and then. 2. Of course I hand wash, but i would not say "before touching face" per-se, but as often as you'd normally expect (restroom breaks, before preparing food and/or eating, after coming from outside). 3. I don't really run away from sick people. I simply am indifferent. I still never get sick,…

I've worked a variety of jobs. I tend to a lot of mild upper respiratory infections I recover from easily enough. The only things I could ever really link were routine public transit use. Or when I worked in a bar. When those were true I got sick a lot more than when they weren't.

I'd imagine it has more to do with ventilation, maybe?

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#646

Post by scomp » Fri, Apr 30, 2021, 2:41 AM UTC

dcolkitt wrote: post #640

Anybody care to weigh in on something I can't figure out. Last October I had some sort of illness, with severe flu like symptoms. However my nasal swab PCR test, taken 48 hours after symptoms, came back negative. I assumed it was flu, but everything I'm read suggests that flu is virtually unheard of this season. For a standard cold, it seemed to severe (102 F fever, body aches and chills). I also had a strong reactio…

I had the worst cold of my life in July last year (could of been the flu, it was a struggle to walk from the lounge room to the bedroom), got tested thinking 100% I had COVID (partner was a COVID nurse, seemed likely I would get it). Got a negative result.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#647

Post by awwaiid » Fri, Apr 30, 2021, 2:47 AM UTC

fullshark wrote: post #515

jjav wrote: post #498

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That it wasn't predictable or obvious flu cases would go to near zero. How could it not be predictable? I get the cold/flu when I or someone in the family is exposed to someone sick and it gets passed on. If we're all staying in the house and not going anywhere for a year, by what mechanism could we possibly get sick? Seemed predictable to me. In any case, it's been so awesome to not be sick in over a year. With el…

And yet I really don't remember any discussion at all about how flu season was going to be nonexistent this winter in the media. No discussion about how if we socially distance flu deaths would drop almost 97% (22000 -> 600). I guess no one decided to write a news story about it cause it was so predictable, dog bites man and all.

I recall articles about it last September. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6937a6.htm

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#648

Post by tehlike » Fri, Apr 30, 2021, 2:48 AM UTC

CodeGlitch wrote: post #467

Mordisquitos wrote: post #425

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even though the plural of anecdotes is not data, I must say that my personal experience matches yours as well. I pay no attention to disinfection or antiseptic cleanliness, and I can't remember the last time I was actually ill. In the good old days, whenever someone would "warn" me that they were a bit sick before hugging/sharing a bottle/shaking hands/etc, I would even joke “Don't worry, I don't believe in the germ…

Damn I wish I had your immune system. Pre-covid I would get sick every September and probably 2 other times in the year (I would have the flu jab every November too!). I'm a germaphobe so wash my hands before eating, etc. I also try and stay fit, don't smoke and hardly drink alcohol. Unless there's a trick I'm missing here?

How was your upbringing? Did you have to use things like public transport when you were young? I imagine some of the early exposures and immune system build up might have good impact later on in life.

I am not germaphobe. When people saw someone with flu, they would stay away, i was indifferent. I'd just tell them i am ok with the risk, and most likely i would not even get sick, or if i did, it'd be a very very mild one. I never did.

The moment i read about covid 19 and lack of evidence for touch based spread (which was very very early on in pandemic, really), i stopped caring about many things (but ended up still doing some for a while because my wife asked me to). We still met with some people etc.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#649

Post by tehlike » Fri, Apr 30, 2021, 2:50 AM UTC

sebmellen wrote: post #520

CodeGlitch wrote: post #467

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Damn I wish I had your immune system. Pre-covid I would get sick every September and probably 2 other times in the year (I would have the flu jab every November too!). I'm a germaphobe so wash my hands before eating, etc. I also try and stay fit, don't smoke and hardly drink alcohol. Unless there's a trick I'm missing here?

Just a thought — the trick might be trying to be less of a germaphobe to build up your immune system (not medical advice).

(not medical advice, but this is my style).

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#650

Post by dizzystar » Fri, Apr 30, 2021, 2:51 AM UTC

dcolkitt wrote: post #640

Anybody care to weigh in on something I can't figure out. Last October I had some sort of illness, with severe flu like symptoms. However my nasal swab PCR test, taken 48 hours after symptoms, came back negative. I assumed it was flu, but everything I'm read suggests that flu is virtually unheard of this season. For a standard cold, it seemed to severe (102 F fever, body aches and chills). I also had a strong reactio…

I took the PCR test back in November. I looked up all the data I could and it wasn't really possible find any straight answers, but this is the closest I could come up with:

If you test positive, you likely had it and can spread it. If you test negative, there is about a 40% of a false negative, but it also depends on when you were exposed, so you'll end up negative if you are outside the window... post symptom, you were probably outside the window.

This also depends on the test itself. When I got mine, I went to a place that was using a new form of the test, and it was bad enough that the testing company lost their contract (whether they were fudging numbers or not is debatable, I can't find any good information on it either).

At the end of the day, if you didn't go to a hospital and get diagnosed with covid, or had an antibody test after you recovered, you probably can't be certain.

Sorry, it's the best I could come up with after days of looking it up from multiple sources.