421–430 of 821 posts
This should not come as a surprise, and it was largely predictable from the outset. The flu has a base reproduction number (R0) less than 2 ( https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/2020/12/07/covid-19... ). Covid has an R0 in the vicinity of 2.5 ( https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena... ). In the meantime, public health measures like masking and distancing will work against both viruses. If…
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You are dodging parent's point: > I have seen no credible evidence that typical (non-pandemic) influenza has an R0 greater than that of SARS-CoV-2. If you have a citation handy to the contrary, I'd be interested in seeing it. Even if the difference in R of influenza and SARS-Cov-2 was only 0.1 (and there is no evidence suggesting the average difference is that small) and assuming both pathogens spread in a similar fa…
I am not dodging it. As the parent noted in their own post , the best mean estimates we have for SARS-CoV2 are a fraction of a unit away from the best mean estimates we have for influenza or rhinovirus. Trying to use this tiny relative difference in fuzzy estimates of empirical parameters to make a complex causal arguments about...well, anything ...is folly.
If there are no studies to show, refer to an opinion of an epidemiologist or any other expert in the spread of infectious diseases.
You seem to argue against a vast field of computer scientists, mathematicians, physicists, biologists, medical experts that do nothing else but study the spread of infectious diseases.
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Small but important correction: nothing can make epidemiological spread non-exponential. Driving base reproduction below one additional infection per infected patient means the exponent is less than one, so the incidence of the disease rapidly decreases. This decrease is also exponential by definition: infection is simply an exponential process, and an exponential equation doesn't stop being what it is when the expon…
>> there will be considerable political pressure to "do something" about the next flu wave. This must be resisted Why on earth does it make sense to resist sensible public health measures to reduce the influenza to R0 The measures would not need to be nearly as drastic as those for COVID ("normal" R0 of 2 vs 2.5+), so more handwashing (good to minimize a broad spectrum of pathogens), masks (already culturally ordinar…
Let's not forget a substantial portion of the population working from home, using less public transportation (choosing to travel by car when traveling at all), a huge decrease in tourism and large public gatherings, much less eating out at restaurants, contactless food delivery becoming the norm, etc.
So many factors figure in to why much of the (wealthy, developed) world is a lot more resistant to contagious pathogens today than it was a year ago.
If I caught the flu, how would the government/scientists studying this stuff even know I got it? If you're anything like me you probably just take some time off and get over the illness without ever seeing a doctor or taking a flu-test. How do they measure such things? I suspect they use some elaborate statistical model to try and generalize the results to the whole population.
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You can do a LOT. I haven't been sick once in 6+ years because I do the following: 1) Almost never eat out. Home cooked meals that I've prepped / washed. This was single handedly the biggest factor that completely removed "getting sick" from my life. 2) Hand wash before touching face, or food. 3) Avoid sick people. If I hear someone coughing or sneezing, I move away from them. Call me a germ freak, I don't care, I've…
On the other hand, I don't think I've ever gotten a cold/the flu, at least not since I was a young kid, and I don't take much care to do anything on your list. Sure, I'll wash my hands after using a restroom or before prepping food. But I'll definitely walk into a restaurant (pre-covid) and just start eating a burger without washing my hands first. I feel the biggest factor is just what body and immune system you hav…
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> This should not come as a surprise, and it was largely predictable from the outset....the flu has a base reproduction number (R0) less than 2....Covid has an R0 in the vicinity of 2.5....In the meantime, public health measures like masking and distancing will work against both viruses....there's really no need for conspiracy theorizing. Assuming that this is due to "masking and distancing" and the small difference…
Did we even test for the flu? Or did we just presume that flu cases were COIVD because the symptoms are so similar? The idea that the flu just 'disappeared' despite world trade continuing just sets off my bullshit detectors. Between all the countries that did little or nothing initially, and the people who refused to wear masks and didn't lock down...there's just no way it dropped to zero. Less? Sure. But gone? I sim…
None of that has changed in the era of COVID, although the pattern of who goes to clinic for what may have. If there were flu out there we'd be detecting it is the bottom line.
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> This should not come as a surprise, and it was largely predictable from the outset....the flu has a base reproduction number (R0) less than 2....Covid has an R0 in the vicinity of 2.5....In the meantime, public health measures like masking and distancing will work against both viruses....there's really no need for conspiracy theorizing. Assuming that this is due to "masking and distancing" and the small difference…
Did we even test for the flu? Or did we just presume that flu cases were COIVD because the symptoms are so similar? The idea that the flu just 'disappeared' despite world trade continuing just sets off my bullshit detectors. Between all the countries that did little or nothing initially, and the people who refused to wear masks and didn't lock down...there's just no way it dropped to zero. Less? Sure. But gone? I sim…
Before that it was noted that flu was killing more than coronavirus in summer.
This should not come as a surprise, and it was largely predictable from the outset. The flu has a base reproduction number (R0) less than 2 ( https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/2020/12/07/covid-19... ). Covid has an R0 in the vicinity of 2.5 ( https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena... ). In the meantime, public health measures like masking and distancing will work against both viruses. If…
> This should not come as a surprise, and it was largely predictable from the outset. That explains all these news stories telling me what to expect: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/experts-warn-twindemic-... https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/09/19/covid-... https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-we-can-avoid-... etc: https://www.google.com/search?q=twindemic&tbs=cdr:1,cd_min:9...
Occam's Razor: Covid isn't a "pandemic", it's a strong flu
This should not come as a surprise, and it was largely predictable from the outset. The flu has a base reproduction number (R0) less than 2 ( https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/2020/12/07/covid-19... ). Covid has an R0 in the vicinity of 2.5 ( https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena... ). In the meantime, public health measures like masking and distancing will work against both viruses. If…
Will the flu come back after covid ends? If covid ends?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I am not dodging it. As the parent noted in their own post , the best mean estimates we have for SARS-CoV2 are a fraction of a unit away from the best mean estimates we have for influenza or rhinovirus. Trying to use this tiny relative difference in fuzzy estimates of empirical parameters to make a complex causal arguments about...well, anything ...is folly.
Sorry to be harsh here, but that's exactly what I meant by dodging: Parent asked for evidence that the R0 of influenza is higher on average than the R0 of SARS-Cov-2. If there are no studies to show, refer to an opinion of an epidemiologist or any other expert in the spread of infectious diseases. You seem to argue against a vast field of computer scientists, mathematicians, physicists, biologists, medical experts th…
Burden is on the parent to prove their claim, not for me to disprove claims advanced without evidence.
All current estimates for R0 have wide, overlapping confidence intervals that make it impossible to differentiate them from other viruses. The best anyone can say is that Covid and influenza have similar mean R0 estimates.
> If there are no studies to show, refer to an opinion of an epidemiologist or any other expert in the spread of infectious diseases.
I cited just such a paper. Please refer to it.