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Wisconsin has negotiated a dramatically scaled-back deal with Foxconn

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Re: Wisconsin has negotiated a dramatically scaled-back deal with Foxconn

#51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It helped Trump, mission accomplished.

Did it? His “8th wonder of the world nonsense” was after he was elected in 2017, and Trump then lost Wisconsin in 2020

Trumps brand is still strong it seems (or at least Republicans think so) and it added to his brand - I do think the most important thing to Trump is branding, being president is secondary. Or the other way around: Being president added to the brand, that's what Trump was interested in* He doesn't care he lost the presidency in principle, but because losing tarnishes the brand. He would be the same losing the presidency of a golf club.

*And perhaps getting immunity.

Re: Wisconsin has negotiated a dramatically scaled-back deal with Foxconn

#52

Do not trust Foxconn. I strongly believe they're playing a long-term game here. For example, the Foxconn plant is on a particular tract of land only partially within the Lake Michigan watershed. Anyone living within the watershed must return their water, and it must be cleaned up first. My understanding of the Great Lakes Compact is that Foxconn's land is one of legal ambiguity, that they may draw from Lake Michigan…

> but water is set to be more valuable than oil

Desalination costs less than 0.1 cents per liter, so that sets a pretty firm price cap on the cost of water.

Re: Wisconsin has negotiated a dramatically scaled-back deal with Foxconn

#54

Can someone explain to me why Foxconn didn't build the plant? Why would they go through the trouble of negotiating this deal, which ended up phenomenally in their favor, just to throw their hands in the air and walk away?

Politics. Political capital. There are international advantages to having the US president endorse you, your project and your company. Those photos were probably worth the hassle.

Not just the photos but the initial publicity. People remember the beginnings of things if they're broadcasted through mass media. I recall many people claiming this a 'big win' at the time and attributing to the sitting president. I recall also being highly skeptical and suspecting a political stunt but completely forgot about the status until reading this.

Meanwhile, people at large don't follow progress of these endeavors. Some journalists may but there's selection bias from the journalist and the news consumer as to what they ultimately see and stay informed of. These stunts are forgotten by most (myself included) in the daily scramble of things we have to keep track of and manage. Did it fail? Did it succeed? Do I even remember it or just the emotion it attributed to something else I actually do remember?

Ambiguity hiding in complexity of daily life lets people say and do a lot of things and get away with it. It's often far too difficult and time consuming to unravel the ambiguity and complexity to show if something succeded, failed, or to even have cognitive capacity to keep track of. The end result, as you point out, is political capital people walk away with. The emotional impression at the time is what was sold and stuck to most people. "MAGA", "bringing back manufacturering", links to nostalgic economic golden eras for many workers.

Re: Wisconsin has negotiated a dramatically scaled-back deal with Foxconn

#55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a take that's wildly generous to FoxConn, painting them as the "aww schucks" kinda honest guys that just didn't know about the challenges of the US labor market. The alternate take is that the whole deal was made in bad faith and FoxConn was hoping to collect subsidies and line its pockets. This version of events has some precedent[1]. It's especially hard to believe that FoxConn didn't know about US labor wh…

You know what's bad faith? Politicians bullshitting that these kind of factory jobs are ever going to come back. My smartphone will never be assembled in the US or Germany.

It will never be assembled by humans in the US, but we should strive for US based robotic manufacturing.

Re: Wisconsin has negotiated a dramatically scaled-back deal with Foxconn

#56

Is it just me or has it become more common for journalists to write about decreases by saying "X-fold" or "x times"? I always get confused, I find it much easier to say "by 97%".

I believe everyone (with a basic education) should be able to understand both, but I think the X-fold representation is much clearer-- just compare how similar decreases by 80%, 90%, 95% appear at first glance-- but there is a full order of magnitude between EACH of those (while 50% and 55% is basically the same thing)!

Calling it a 5-fold, 10-fold or 20-fold decrease makes the difference between them much more immediately obvious, IMO.

Its similar with the miles/gallon vs. liters/100km metrics for fuel consumption, where one of them just seems immediately more intuitive to grasp and use (to me).

Re: Wisconsin has negotiated a dramatically scaled-back deal with Foxconn

#57

Is it just me or has it become more common for journalists to write about decreases by saying "X-fold" or "x times"? I always get confused, I find it much easier to say "by 97%".

It's terribly confusing. I made this graph to show why: https://i.imgur.com/7wYWWfs.png Fold decreases are parabolic, fold increases are linear.

so confusing, I always assumed 30 fold was the same as 30x, meaning 30 times smaller.

Re: Wisconsin has negotiated a dramatically scaled-back deal with Foxconn

#58

Is it just me or has it become more common for journalists to write about decreases by saying "X-fold" or "x times"? I always get confused, I find it much easier to say "by 97%".

It's because percentages are more misleading for humans than "x-times". 95% and 97% sound very close, right? They're not. 95% is a 20x reduction, while 97% is a 30x reduction. Percentages create a singularity at 100, which is why the effect is more pronounced the closer you get to 100.

It's just like how saying something is "95% effective" sounds very convincing until you realize that's a 1-in-20 failure rate.

Re: Wisconsin has negotiated a dramatically scaled-back deal with Foxconn

#59
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You know what's bad faith? Politicians bullshitting that these kind of factory jobs are ever going to come back. My smartphone will never be assembled in the US or Germany.

It will never be assembled by humans in the US, but we should strive for US based robotic manufacturing.

This is the key people often overlook. If we stop using our AI geniuses to develop tracking algorithms and start building automation, we can have nextgen factories in the West. The environmental factor is yet to be solved though. For the most part, developing countries are trading environmental damage for money. Not much different from harvesting oil or other resources to an economist.

Re: Wisconsin has negotiated a dramatically scaled-back deal with Foxconn

#60
post #23
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many people don't have a clue what "30-fold" even means, and therefore it sounds big and scary. Basically, it's just one of the tools in the sensationalist headlines toolbox.

…is that true? I understand “30-fold” to mean “30x” and I’m pretty sure I have from a very young age. I haven’t checked but I’d be surprised if my peers weren’t the same.

I think people understand 30-fold to mean 30x, but don't always intuit that "slashed by 30-fold" is equivalent to a reduction by 97% of the original deal. They especially don't understand that the difference between a 20-fold, 30-fold, and 50-fold reduction is the same as a 95%, 97%, and 98% discount.

This is especially evident in the mental gymnastics required to understand retail sales pricing. How good is a "Buy two, get one 50% off!!" deal? Brains easily give up on the hard questions and substitute easy answers. "What's it actually worth? Bought one at another store last month, do difficult pricing history memory, or easy answer, the original price is listed right there. How good is the deal? Complicated math, or easy answer, it's at least a good enough deal to merit a big sign, bright colors, and two exclamation points. And it's good for a limited time only? Better not miss out, buy now!"

Here, the scope of the reduction is kind of irrelevant. They basically scrapped the old deal and tried to write a new, smaller one. Had they scrapped the megafactory plans and decided to open a fast food franchise it could have been reduced a million fold!

The new agreement offers $80M and asks Foxconn to spend only $672M on a factory that will employ only 1,454 people by 2025. The original deal offered Foxconn $2.85B (or $2850M) to spend $10B ($10000M) and hire 13,000 by 2032. Big numbers are hard, but running the math it's now $55k/job and $0.13/dollar of capital investment, it was $220k/job and $0.285/dollar. $80M is 2.8% or a 30-fold reduction from $2.85B, but the full story is they've simultaneously reduced the ratios of the incentives and the scope of the required investment.

A complete understanding of what those numbers mean is really hard to develop, and isn't really distilled by a substitution in the headline of 30-fold to 30x. Human brains in general are busy and don't like to work too hard, and whether we use "30 fold" like "four score" in our daily vernacular or they say 97% and 80, the headline's effect is the same. It conveys to readers who don't want to run all the numbers about average salaries and payroll taxes and capital depreciation and so on that the previous administration tried to offer an excessively generous deal but the current government has rolled that back to something a lot smaller, don't worry about exactly how much but just trust that it's a lot.

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