Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

China is betting that the West is in irreversible decline

economist.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

251–260 of 349 posts

Re: China is betting that the West is in irreversible decline

#251

Post by MisterBastahrd »

SubiculumCode wrote: post #109
MisterBastahrd wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hate to break it to you, but progressive values aren't why the dictators of the world walked all over the US for the past 4 years.

That's ridiculous. No dictator has walked all over the US in the last 4 years or ever. Anytime we failed diplomatically it occurred with the knowledge that our military dominance was insurmountable and complete, but that it's use indiscriminately would not serve our overall diplomatic strategic policy of caring about human rights, and self-imposed limits on how we use our military. Any of our failures in war against…

Military dominance is only insurmountable and complete when it's a credible threat, and ours hasn't actually won a war of note in over half a century. The best we've ever done in that timeframe has been to supplement military leadership that was already in place, and we've failed to even accomplish that half the time.

The US military is a money pit.

Re: China is betting that the West is in irreversible decline

#252

Post by Ancapistani »

inter_netuser wrote: post #225
medium_burrito wrote: post #49

They have some massive negatives to deal with: - China is net food and energy importer. Look at last year for a preview of future food. The land they leased in Africa won't help in terms of climate shift, locusts, etc. Who is the number of one food and energy exporter? - China has an aeging population, and it's already a rapid shift. - China's infrastructure isn't as well built as other countries (see their most impo…

"US soon being able to just stack depleted uranium telephone poles in orbit to protect it's dependencies" Rods from God is actually real? Thought it was a failed research project?

RFGs are just a subclass of "kinetic impact weapons", which are _definitely_ feasible.

RFGs are rod-shaped to minimize air resistance during re-entry. Tungsten is the material they're most associated with, but DU would likely work just fine as well. A (relatively) small, tungsten rod can be launched by braking from a parking orbit which would mean extremely little in the way of detectable activity. Even if it were detected... it's already at apogee, already at orbital speed, and already on a virtually unstoppable course to impact.

To take this a step further - realistically, Elon Musk is on the cusp of being the most powerful man the world has ever seen. Once SpaceX has a semi-permanent presence in orbit and beyond, he would have the practical ability to launch attacks anywhere on Earth with a destructive potential on par with nuclear weapons.

Re: China is betting that the West is in irreversible decline

#253

Post by carpedimebagjoe »

Ever since about the 1960's-1970's, it has been a slow, gradual frog boiling of American culture, institutions, government, community, and society. Look at all the neighbors and people in public who refuse or don't interact with each other. This was not the case 40 years ago. American socialization with strangers and neighbors was entirely different. Americans barely acknowledge the presence of one-another apart from pointing out microaggressions, espousing conspiracy theories, or berating someone for "how so stupid they are for believing X." At some point, if people don't need or want each other, and don't benefit from the presence of one another, it stops being a civilization and starts being a prison colony where the inmates look to escape.

Morris Berman discussed it to a degree in 2000.

Bowling Alone by Robert D. Putnam (2000) hinted to it. Heck, there are countries now with restaurants that cater to solo diners. That seems really depressing.

The late Chalmers Johnson predicted it convincingly in 2006 and during a few interviews.

America: The Farewell Tour by Chris Hedges (2018).

When America Stopped Being Great: A History of the Present by Nick Bryant (2021).

Most civilizations tend to last an average of 250 years until corruption and other factors causes their effective collapse. I think there is often a combined gradual decline and more sudden decline into effective collapse when civilizations lose their "critical mass" to maintain basic infrastructure and services. There are numerous failed states in the world that perpetually operate on the edge of this condition. Healthy civilizations needs lofty aspirations that don't lead to insolvency.

https://www.resilience.org/stories/2020-08-10/four-reasons-c...

Re: China is betting that the West is in irreversible decline

#254

Post by tenpies »

dgudkov wrote: post #195
Daho0n wrote: post #23

It's very hard to disagree IMO. The west is in decline and unless something catastrophic happens in PRC or war breaks out (also pretty catastrophic) I can't see any future where the PRC isn't going to at least become on par with the US soon but most likely it will succeed it as top dog. The only question in my mind is where do the EU end up in all this and if Russia will become closer with PRC or EU. IMO the biggest…

The West is on the rise technologically and in decline socially. But I wouldn't be too quick to call the decline irreversible . The democracy is still in a good shape despite some challenges. The West went through many crises. This is not the first one, and not the last one. So far, nothing indicates that the social crisis is irreversible and the West won't be able to bounce back.

The most interesting parts to me are seeing areas where the US corporations finally tell the US political class "fuck off".

Sure, they'll slap a BLM web page and hire more [whatever race you tell us is cool to hire]. They'll tribute some token amount to the cause du jour propped up by Democrats, but allow unions? That's open war and it got crushed exceedingly fast as we saw with Amazon..

It's fascinating to watch the dynamic as companies sing praises on one hand, but are clearly preparing their daggers on the other. The Democrats don't understand what they're doing by openly being hostile to half the country and its values, and they're in for a rude awakening when the corporations decide that they've had enough.

Re: China is betting that the West is in irreversible decline

#255

Post by AnimalMuppet »

shoemakersteve wrote: post #173
fasteddie31003 wrote: post #90

I hope the world can exist with a strong China and a strong US. Why are they mutual exclusive? We both have our strengths and weaknesses.

Because China doesn't like it when people point out that they have concentration camps.

Or point out any other flaw. Or say that Taiwan isn't the same country. Or mention Tiananmin Square. Or Winnie the Pooh. Or...

Re: China is betting that the West is in irreversible decline

#256

Post by SubiculumCode »

MisterBastahrd wrote: post #251
SubiculumCode wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's ridiculous. No dictator has walked all over the US in the last 4 years or ever. Anytime we failed diplomatically it occurred with the knowledge that our military dominance was insurmountable and complete, but that it's use indiscriminately would not serve our overall diplomatic strategic policy of caring about human rights, and self-imposed limits on how we use our military. Any of our failures in war against…

Military dominance is only insurmountable and complete when it's a credible threat, and ours hasn't actually won a war of note in over half a century. The best we've ever done in that timeframe has been to supplement military leadership that was already in place, and we've failed to even accomplish that half the time. The US military is a money pit.

Our military is absolutely a credible threat. We did not win those wars because we restrained ourselves. Iraq could have easily been turned into a wasteland of death and destruction, for example. We could have done like the Romans, implemented complete tyranny, and lined their streets with staked bodies as a reminder to not rebel. Harbor terrorists among civilians? Leveling the whole city would send a message that harboring our enemies is a death wish.

But we are not willing to conduct such indiscriminate brutality. We tried to fight ethical anti-insurgent wars with our hands tied behind our back in order to preserve life and cling to our values. But pushed too far, that restraint could drop. So it IS a credible threat.

Re: China is betting that the West is in irreversible decline

#257

Post by Ancapistani »

earthboundkid wrote: post #120

I just don't see how the US keeps together. The disconnect between the two sides is, on the one hand, not based on anything concrete. So maybe we can patch it up somehow. Like, before the Civil War, slavery is a real thing with real human and economic effects. Today though, conservatives are mad about what exactly?… It seems like they're mad about a generalized disrespect which the mainstream culture has towards them…

> Today though, conservatives are mad about what exactly?… It seems like they're mad about a generalized disrespect which the mainstream culture has towards them. And fair enough, they aren't imagining that.

It's a bit more than that. A growing proportion of conservatives see the world very differently than their left-wing counterparts. This is most easily demonstrated at the moment by the fact that 60% of self-identified Republicans believe the election was stolen via voter fraud[1].

Set aside your own beliefs about the specific issue for a moment, and ask yourself: how would you feel if you honestly, truly believed that Trump legitimately won the election? Would your beliefs be strengthened or weakened when the opposition compared the person you believed won the Presidency to Hitler, and their supporters (you) to Nazis[2]?

> But they vent this anger into really bizarre things like trying to keep trans people from using the bathroom and imaginary voter fraud prevention laws. And those are the mainstream, non-conspiracy minded Republican issues!

You're right. Those issues are politicians pandering to their bases, and emphatically setting themselves on the "hardliner" side of a party that is in turmoil and at risk of fracture.

There are other issues that, if pressed, will absolutely unite the GOP and sweep everything else aside. Foremost among those: gun rights. If the Biden administration is successful in moving against firearms - especially if through legislation - the divisions within the GOP will disappear in a heartbeat.

> So my current best guess is that we are in the quiet period now, things will stew along for the next 2 to 4 years, then Trump will run again or some other crazy thing, and then there will be secession crisis.

I agree. I don't know if Trump will remain relevant, but I see every sign that red states are beginning to seriously consider secession as a possibility. It's an extremely unlikely one today, yes - but it was extremely unlikely in most of the 1850s as well... until it wasn't.

1: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-politics-disinformati...

2: https://www.salon.com/2021/04/11/trumps-big-lie-and-hitlers-...

Re: China is betting that the West is in irreversible decline

#259

Post by AnimalMuppet »

endisneigh wrote: post #139

I wish we (the USA) would take this opportunity to recognize China does some things in certain circumstances better than us and capitalize on that. - Infrastructure (public transportation and high speed rail is far superior in China) - Reproductive rights for women (abortion is available for all women in China) There are others, but it doesn't need to be a battle. China has a ton of issues too (non-free media, Xinjia…

Reproductive rights? Funny. Yes, they can get an abortion. But there was a time, rather recently, when they literally did not have the right to reproduce.

Re: China is betting that the West is in irreversible decline

#260

Post by rnd0 »

bruiseralmighty wrote: post #236

I mean the US is going to shit, but it's important to ask: "Compared to what?" Our demographical outlook is actually much better than any other developed nation. China's economy is based on the export of manufacturing goods. We are their main customer. More importantly, we are set up to be their only main customer for the next generation at least due to birth rates. Every other developed nation has had a declining bi…

When you say "Our demographical outlook" what do you mean, and how is it better than other nations?
Post reply on HN