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China is betting that the West is in irreversible decline

economist.com

171–180 of 349 posts

Re: China is betting that the West is in irreversible decline

#171

And I am betting that CCP will implode within the decade. If west is in decline please stop sending your top students abroad to study (and stay there). Great job promoting brain drain. I am tired of this unfounded narrative that the west is in decline. No, it’s not. It’s actually getting stronger by the day especially the US.

China has always been extremely good for its top students, providing them with all they need to excel. Once China becomes a global superpower, I'd imagine many of them go back to working for China if they get the chance to with their new-found expertise from abroad.

Re: China is betting that the West is in irreversible decline

#172

"ITS GAZE fixed on the prize of becoming rich and strong, China has spent the past 40 years as a risk-averse bully. Quick to inflict pain on smaller powers, it has been more cautious around any country capable of punching back." The same could be said about the United States' behavior on the international scene these past decades.

I don't like China and find what they're doing in Xinjiang abhorrent (and I believe that the Western media reports are truthful and not just made up shit), but that part of the article made me wonder if the West has been or is as bad, but the Economist (and myself) ignore it because, "Hey, we're the good guys!".

There isn't a lot of outrage about miners of rare minerals with dangerous working conditions or poorly paid Bangladeshi textile workers, or the slave workers building the Middle Eastern countries (at least not to the level where western politicians talk about sanctions), is it because these people are suppliers for our Apple, H&M, or that they have a lot of oil and money which we wish to attract?

Re: China is betting that the West is in irreversible decline

#173

I hope the world can exist with a strong China and a strong US. Why are they mutual exclusive? We both have our strengths and weaknesses.

Because China doesn't like it when people point out that they have concentration camps.

Re: China is betting that the West is in irreversible decline

#174
post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This "unity" comes at a horribly steep cost. Side-stepping for a moment the humanitarian and ethical costs for a brief moment, an enforced homogeneity of ideology leaves little room for independent thinking. At some point, you end up passing down every decision down and idea down a party line like a bucket through a fire brigade. That severely stifles innovation and creates an incredibly narrow view of your options.…

That's what I used to believe, that a totalitarian regime can never compete with a free society. The USSR tried and failed. But China is something different. They are extremely competent. And they are past their copy cat phase. I don't believe they have a creativity issue. I think the free society model is failing given how easy to dissipate false information, especially the kind that get people riled up against each…

We stopped being a community not because we are a free society, but because we stopped communing.

This pandemic has been a comical caricature of how people have been living lately; siloed in their own homes, only interacting through an internet connection. This has made us incredibly susceptible to realities distorted by interested parties.

Again, a free society is our only way out of this. When I get my vaccine in the coming months, I'll be dedicating as much time I can to building strong communities. I encourage all to do the same, no matter how silly it seems. Join a hackerspace, a rock climbing group, volunteer at food shelters, become a scout leader... anything, so long as you promote community and togetherness in doing so!

Re: China is betting that the West is in irreversible decline

#175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is factually untrue. By pretty much every imaginable metric China has improved for nearly everyone (in China) for the past 50 years. Is this also true in the USA? I don't think China is superior to the USA, but to say China is in a "irreversible decline" is ridiculous. https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/ce/celt/eng/jmgx/jjxs/t124869.htm https://www.visualcapitalist.com/china-economic-growth-histo... https://www.cfr.org/ti…

It is factually true. Chinese have access to poisoned shitty water that everyone has to boil first and that's not only because of that chi bullshit. Meanwhile I have access to delicious spring water from Alps. China has achieved only superficial changes that will bite them in the ass in the future.

In the US there are reports of lead and other toxic materials in the tap water.

I dislike China but the US also has those issues, people are just unware of them.

Re: China is betting that the West is in irreversible decline

#176

It's because we stopped focusing on creating things, and instead started laser focusing on making sure that everybody gets exactly the same amount of everything all the time. It's ridiculous. We are trust fund children who don't understand where the money came from, and it will be our undoing. Twitter, NYT, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC and the like have monetized dividing us, and they have a multi-billion dollar a year budge…

I disagree with some parts of this comment because I think it misunderstands that there are real, historical, unaddressed grievances commingled with an entitlement mindset. (The rich also have an entitlement mindset, as it turns out.) But the bit about schooling hit home for me. I'm supposedly in one of the most successful school districts of my city, but the stories I hear from parents ahead of me are disturbing. Th…

Just curious. How do you feel about Alabama advancing its "creation science" bill? Clearly, unequivocally there are reactionary trends taking us far in the opposite direction you say we are going.

I will always take the path of science over the path of superstition and manufactured grievances.

Re: China is betting that the West is in irreversible decline

#177
post #30

And I am betting that CCP will implode within the decade. If west is in decline please stop sending your top students abroad to study (and stay there). Great job promoting brain drain. I am tired of this unfounded narrative that the west is in decline. No, it’s not. It’s actually getting stronger by the day especially the US.

What indications are you seeing of this?

I, personally am ambivalent on this subject. I see many signs that support the narrative of a west in decline while also seeing signs that it still has plenty of innovation and strength still left in it.

The center of technological innovation still resides here in the west.

In the west the industrial and technological prowess are demonstrated through its corporations. For a recent example, look at the speed of development, and efficacy of the vaccines developed in the West compared to the ones developed in China. Beating the west by creating a better vaccine, faster would have been like the Moon landing in terms of raising China's prestige and stature.

SpaceX, despite being only a mid sized company in the US, has a space program that is more advanced that any nation on Earth. Companies like Boston Robotics and Waymo continue to sprout up in the US.

In the event of a total war situation, the west would have a better chance of calling upon the expertise and knowledge of companies like these, much as it did in World War II.

However, things do change. China continues to rise. If it plays its cards right, it can become a rival to, and even eclipse the west. However the fact is, the west continues to be a center for innovation, that pulls in the smartest and brightest from all over the world. People from everywhere, including China, continue to immigrate to it and bring new blood to its competitive economic engine. Feeding the creative destruction of economic and technological innovation. China does not yet have this. It's corporations sit in service of their bureaucracy, its public discourse and innovation is hampered by its great firewall.

A Chinese proverb comes to mind - "We'll see"

Re: China is betting that the West is in irreversible decline

#178
post #98

It is just where we are in the long term debt cycle. The US dollar will devalue in the next decade, but we aren't facing a collapse or anything. We are out of monetary tools (interest rates near zero) to stave off deflation, so we will turn to fiscal tools (printing money). This is a good thing as it will make the US more competitive on exports. We may lose our global reserve currency status but that is not a sustain…

An under-rated asset to the United States is it's attraction of immigrants. If the US could muster the willingness to make immigration a fast and smooth process once again, it would be an enormous benefit.

Re: China is betting that the West is in irreversible decline

#179
post #23

It's very hard to disagree IMO. The west is in decline and unless something catastrophic happens in PRC or war breaks out (also pretty catastrophic) I can't see any future where the PRC isn't going to at least become on par with the US soon but most likely it will succeed it as top dog. The only question in my mind is where do the EU end up in all this and if Russia will become closer with PRC or EU. IMO the biggest…

The US's antiquated and ossified political system with its focus on minoritarianism and gridlock-as-a-design-objective are a major cause. As long as it's possible for ~30% of the country to drag everything to a halt, not a lot is going to get done. The push to restrict voting rights only amplifies that, but the real problem is that the US system is not built to produce a "mandate to lead", it is designed with an excessive focus on "checks and balances" that require supermajority control of all branches of government to accomplish the most basic of functions. Checks and balances and minority representation are good concepts in general but taken to too much of an extreme you end up with a government that cannot react to obviously changing circumstances, which is where we are now. That's the thing that's functionally going to put the US into decline, our government is simply so gridlocked that it cannot accomplish even its most basic functions, and it's a result of how the government is structured that allows and encourages this. If China and Russia don't do it alone, climate change and other problems certainly will.

It's analogous to the liberum veto in the Polism sejm - the system "promoted bipartisanship" by allowing the current legislation under debate and all previous legislation passed in that session to be vetoed at any time by a single member. That's good, right? You have to pass things that only everyone agrees with! But it was exploited by bad actors both internally and foreign powers who wanted to weaken and disrupt the government, to the point the polish state collapsed into a state of anarchy and provincial rule. Sound familiar?

Ultimately it is better to have a system of government that produces an administration that is capable of accomplishing its policy objectives, even if that means that your political opponents can also do things that you don't like. You can then structure the rest of the government around making sure that the administration remains representative of the population. But having a government that is routinely unable to do anything at all is a design flaw with the system, not something to be cheered, and that's the primary reason the US is in decline. It's better for somebody to be at the helm, than everybody arguing over which way to go and nobody driving.

On top of that the US tends to conceptualize "unlimited rights" to a much greater degree than virtually any country. That makes it far more susceptible to misinformation campaigns. The internet is the Atom Bomb of the information age - it makes misinformation far more deadly than it ever was before, because now you can take misinformation straight to the idiots themselves on a micro-targeted level. Certainly misinformation was a problem before, particularly with radio (eg Father Coughlin) but that was eventually curbed with broadcast regulations. As those regulations have eroded the problem got worse again, and now that we have private infrastructure that is totally unregulated it is becoming vastly worse again. Even worse than before in fact, because now you can micro-target the lies each person is most susceptible too. It's just a completely different ballgame than it was 30 years ago, and the regulatory scheme hasn't adapted to the idea that pretty much anybody can wield this potent weapon. The whole western world with its liberal (in the rights-based sense) philosophies are struggling with this but the US takes the most extremist positions in this area and is impacted the worst.

The lack of regulatory response to the rise of weaponized, micro-targeted misinformation campaigns is certainly amplified by the gridlock caused by minoritarian control at the government level, of course, these are all inter-related problems.

Re: China is betting that the West is in irreversible decline

#180
post #140

That's ridiculous.China is the one in irreversible decline. Most people in the West get to enjoy freedom and access to utilities money cant buy in China. 1) For once most people in the west have access to safe and good tap water.Chinese urban dwellers dont. 2) Most people in the west live in places with significantly better air quality than chinese. 3) Most people in the west get to enjoy freedoms chinese cant even t…

How many Mainland Chinese do you actually know? Have you talked to them? My in-laws are all Mainland Chinese. They have access to safe and good tap water, either back in their home town literally in the mountains or in a big city like Wuhan. Air quality is not great, I'll give you that. But it's also not the worst, at least not in every measure. E.g. many big cities in China had lower NO2 levels than other big cities…

> they've seen past the values of the West

Interesting. What would you consider are the values of the West? And, in your opinion, what are the values of the Chinese society? And don't you think there are overlaps and so, which one?

No retorical questions, I am truly interesting in your answer.

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