Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades • Hacker News Board

Re: Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades

#261

Post by aeyes » Sat, Apr 03, 2021, 11:18 PM UTC

seveneightn9ne wrote: post #109

mavhc wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which countries? In what way does it wreck them?

Bolivia. The US-backed coup against Evo Morales may very well have been in part because of his intention to implement state control of lithium extraction, preventing foreign companies from ransacking the country's natural resource. https://www.humanrightspulse.com/mastercontentblog/bolivian-...

I live in Chile so I know a thing or two about mining. 20% of fiscal income stems from copper exports and the majority of that from the state owned mining company Codelco.

There are many mining operations of foreign companies which don't generate nearly as much fiscal income so putting mining under state control is completely understandable. This is exactly how we and oil countries got rich. We destroy the environment so at least we should be compensated instead of exporting profits as well.

A US-backed coup against Bolivia makes no sense, Chile is a muppet and does whatever the US needs done. There is no need to intervene in Bolivia if you can just ask Chile to expand lithium mining and we will happily do it.

I have seen the lithium mining sites in Chile, compared to copper it is clean. The mining operations are still small in comparison to copper and investment is slow.

Re: Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades

#262

Post by Brakenshire » Sat, Apr 03, 2021, 11:19 PM UTC

wpietri wrote: post #224

nardi wrote: post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These are not the same kind of stupid. One makes the assumption that costs will always be the same, and the other makes the assumption that cost decreases are linear, or predictable. The former is much stupider.

They are exactly the same kind of error in that both assume stability over time. One assume prices are stable; the other assumes the rate of change is stable.

The rate of change has been stable over the last 15 years, do you bet it continues for a 16th year or that it stops this year?

Re: Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades

#263

Post by manmal » Sat, Apr 03, 2021, 11:20 PM UTC

bdcravens wrote: post #180

Today I bought a new lawn mower, weed eater, and blower, all electric, with batteries, for less than $600 total (not even the cheapest models). They have comparable power to gas-driven models.

Last time I looked, lawn mowers were not glaring examples of battery driven tech, just like vacuum cleaners. They provided 2-3x less energy output than their wired counterparts, and required charging after just 20 minutes.

Re: Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades

#264

Post by TheCoelacanth » Sat, Apr 03, 2021, 11:30 PM UTC

turbinerneiter wrote: post #37

ghaff wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Electric heat isn't super common, especially in standalone houses, in areas where you need a lot of heat in the US. I don't know the numbers off the top of my head but electricity costs a lot more than gas or oil. You're right about the AC but I still use 20 kWh even with no AC (and no electric heat).

Thanks for the insight. I vaguely remembered that people run the ac in reverse for heat, but that is probably only in paces that almost need no heating. Do you know why you use that much? Do you heat your water with electricity? Fridge, freezer, tv, WiFi, Desktop PC, charging phones and laptop, ligths.

"AC in reverse" I'm assuming means a heat pump, which is very common in the US except for the parts that get really cold like the Northeast and Midwest. They are very efficient down to a bit below freezing, but will result in higher electricity usage since you are using electricity instead of a different fuel.

Re: Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades

#265

Post by chrisseaton » Sat, Apr 03, 2021, 11:32 PM UTC

cbozeman wrote: post #253

chrisseaton wrote: post #245

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Negative, Ghost Rider Australian, not American. And I've literally seen it for myself, and I just also linked a photo of them doing it!

> Your special forces still use Land Rovers on operations! I'm not Australian!

The context was their use in Australia though.

Re: Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades

#266

Post by StavrosK » Sat, Apr 03, 2021, 11:34 PM UTC

spookthesunset wrote: post #184

It’s remarkable what energy dense batteries have enabled. Drones and the entire quadcopter scene wouldn’t be possible without them. Some maneuvers made on a 5” quad can pull more than 100 amps on a 6S, 22V battery. That is around 2,200 watts—more than most consumer microwave ovens! The fact that a battery weighing no more than half a kilogram can supply this much power almost instantly is truly remarkable.

Neither would my 300 gram plane that can fly for an hour and 60 kilometers. Technology is great.

Re: Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades

#267

Post by simpleguitar » Sat, Apr 03, 2021, 11:35 PM UTC

Robotbeat wrote: post #215

callmeal wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Hrmm, so the cost and performance is much the same, but it adds value by creating a new talking point for Tesla owners to harangue others with. I know that hating on Tesla is a thing, but don't forget the higher torque, better efficiency, lower heat generation in the stator windings. And the fact that this type of motor first showed up in the Prius and Tesla made a better version of it. Yeah they're getting away wit…

I'm as big of a Tesla fan as any, but I'm both continuously impressed with how ahead-of-its-time the Prius was and continuously disappointed how lack-luster Toyota has been in pure electric cars. Toyota had like a decade lead on everyone else and just.... sat on it. Only invested in hybrids and hydrogen (which was and is a dead end). Toyota could've gone all-in on pure electric cars (and better plug-in hybrids than t…

For Toyota, it wasn't the engineering, design, nor the manufacturing that was the bottleneck. It was sourcing of the batteries.

Toyota sold 100k Priuses it's first year (2005), and peaked at 237k Priuses in 2012. At that time, nobody had the capacity (nor the materials), to produce that many battery packs for full EV use. In hind sight, they could have committed fully to LiIon batteries for the future, but in early 2000s, it wasn't clear at all what technology would actually win. The contenders were, as I recall, hydrogen, rechargeable batteries, and bio-fuels. Toyota had concept vehicles for each of those, and the hybrid-electric was the practical compromise at the time. Toyota, being a large scale manufacturer, could not design a car around a critical component which were in short supply, like LiIon batteries.

Tesla decided to go the rechargeable route, invested heavily in battery manufacturing, and bet on LiIon analog of Moore's Law. Since they weren't going to sell 100k vehicles any time soon, they could scale along the way. Tesla didn't deliver 200k vehicles until 2018. (On a side note, Tesla also had Elon leading it. All of his 'crazy ventures' lead to colonizing Mars. What kind of a vehicle would be most practical on Mars? Not gasoline. Not hydrogen. Yep, EV. And what internet technology is the most practical on Mars? Yep, satellite constellations. What transport technology is the most practical on Mars? Underground tunnels. And so on.)

Currently, all the automakers except Tesla are scrambling to secure battery capacity. Tesla is in a very nice position right now.

Re: Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades

#268

Post by jpeter » Sat, Apr 03, 2021, 11:38 PM UTC

cbozeman wrote: post #242

spookthesunset wrote: post #184

It’s remarkable what energy dense batteries have enabled. Drones and the entire quadcopter scene wouldn’t be possible without them. Some maneuvers made on a 5” quad can pull more than 100 amps on a 6S, 22V battery. That is around 2,200 watts—more than most consumer microwave ovens! The fact that a battery weighing no more than half a kilogram can supply this much power almost instantly is truly remarkable.

Zero-Point Energy Modules when?

When we find atlantis

Re: Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades

#269

Post by kybishop » Sat, Apr 03, 2021, 11:53 PM UTC

manmal wrote: post #259

theshrike79 wrote: post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The battery had literally zero temperature management, no heating or cooling. They literally could've added a 12 volt chassis fan to make it not suck so bad. Rapidgate was a thing, the battery heated up when driving, you stop to recharge -> battery heats up even more -> overheat -> limiters engage and you're charging at hand crank levels of power.

The Leaf was built with Japanese climate in mind, where peak temperatures are usually not as high. I always found that strange, given that automotive components are usually tested for outlier conditions.

A Korean car company made a car with the Japanese climate in mind? Perhaps you meant the Korean climate?

Re: Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades

#270

Post by Obi_Juan_Kenobi » Sat, Apr 03, 2021, 11:53 PM UTC

baybal2 wrote: post #96

supernova87a wrote: post #87

I'm pretty interested to know what parts of this cost have hit their practical limit, and which still have cost to be squeezed out? -- Mineral scarcity/cost of mining -- Cost of processing, refining lithium -- Cost of making battery chemical contents -- Cost of assembling rest of complete battery Any info on how much more advance there is to go on these aspects? And, after all that is squeezed out, is lithium still g…

Ones which can be squeezed more > -- Cost of making battery chemical contents > -- Cost of assembling rest of complete battery Mining, and refining is pretty efficient at this point, even when Chinese dominate the market. It's cathode materials which is the single biggest cost point. Cathode materials are dominated by Japanese companies, especially nickel based ones. LFP is so cheap because making cathode powder for…

> Mining, and refining is pretty efficient at this point

Hardly. Nickel goes through a rube-goldberg process of extraction, smelting into pure nickel, made into a sulfate, transported around the world, remade into a nickel carbonate, and finally input into cathode manufacture.

The supply chain simply isn't set up for batteries yet. Nickel metal powder is the best form to transport, and likely the best input for cathode manufacture as well. But the industry formed around the sulfate which was a mature market from other industrial use.