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Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades

economist.com

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Re: Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades

#71
This is important to keep in mind when you read articles and/or studies about how electric cars or wind or solar power is impractical. A lot of the data these studies use is just obsolete.

Say you have an opinion piece in a news paper that says that electric cars will always be expensive toys for the rich. It relies on a scientific paper published in a technical journal 2 years ago. The scientific paper does not perform original research but relies on a study published 2 years ago, which study relies on official data reported by companies six months before publication.

Perhaps nobody in this propagation chain meant to mislead. But in the end they are using old data that assumes that battery costs are five times what they are in reality and twenty times what they will be in the near future (for example) and draws all the wrong conclusions.

Similar things are happening with articles and public comments about renewable energy. There are numerous arguments about how we will always need coal power or nuclear power, or natural gas and they all base it on old studies with obsolete high costs of batteries. These articles commit a further error by also neglecting the every decreasing costs of solar and wind power. These articles are even more egregious because while a car lasts only 10-15 years a power plant is supposed to last at least 30 (for coal or gas) and up to 60 (for nuclear). Furthermore, nuclear plants take 5 to 10 years to even build. In those years the costs of batteries and renewables will only go down further.

In the financial press there were many articles about how Tesla will never be profitable, how it is an extravagant way for shareholders to subsidize luxury car buyers, how it will always rely on government subsidies and will need more of them, etc. Well, guess what the federal tax credit expired and lo and behold tesla is profitable.

They weren't necessarily lying. But they were using automotive industry assumptions, and the auto industry with their internal combustion engines is a mature industry with few opportunities for cost reductions. But as far as batteries and electric motors and power semiconductors go ... well we are just getting started on them and hopefully we will have many opportunities for cost reductions.

Re: Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades

#72
post #56
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or houses not in the USA. http://shrinkthatfootprint.com/average-household-electricity... : “The average American or Canadian household in 2010 used about twenty times more than the typical Nigerian household, and two to three times more than a typical European home”

Why is that? Is it because North Americans use electricity for cooking and heating whereas other countries use gas for that?

Air conditioning isn't needed in many EU countries except for a few days a year (so it's not worth to even install it in private homes, modern offices mostly have them though for some reason).

Also depending on the country few people use cloth driers - you just hang your clothes on a cable and let them dry by themselves.

Houses in colder parts of EU are also usually better isolated than in US ([1] that's a typical Polish house for example), and more people live in flats in blocks instead of independent houses (so heat loses are vastly reduced because you only have 1 or 2 outdoors walls).

Homes are also simply bigger in US. Average home size (including flats) in my country is a little over 70 square meters. It's probably bigger in western Europe but not by that much.

Also big houses usually have 2/3 stories instead of being very "wide".

And electric heating/cooking isn't very popular, but I think that depends on the country.

It all goes back to electricity prices - in Poland in 1980s most houses had no isolation, everybody heated with coal which had fixed (and very low) prices. Then communism ended, prices were free to change with the market, some taxes were introduced, and suddenly everybody isolated their houses in like 10 years. Otherwise you burned money like crazy.

[1] https://s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pressland-cms/cache/__...

Re: Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades

#73
post #58
post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is that? Is it because North Americans use electricity for cooking and heating whereas other countries use gas for that?

I suspect big houses, poor insulation, air conditioning, and gluttony. Most of the US houses I've been in use either gas or fuel oil for heating.

We have lots of elctric furnaces or heat pumps in the southern and western states where winters are milder. The air conditioning is the real usage. The insulation in new homes is good, but the insulation to keep heat out needs to be in walls as much as ceilings which is harder to retrofit. Modern AC systems help quite a lot and keeping heat away from ac ducting in the attic by insulating them amd adding roof vents and radiant barrier to keep the attic cool. Lighter colors so your south facing wall doesn't fry eggs (literally) also help.

Re: Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades

#75
post #53

Why are they measuring in kg instead of kWh?

It doesn't seem too clickbaity. $73k/$75k = 97% (assuming the figures are correct). Knowing that the weight is reduced is good, because the weight determines where the batteries are useful; no matter how low the price per kW h goes, if the kW h/g is too low, the battery isn't going on a spaceship.

Re: Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades

#76
post #68
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No way. 90kWh/month? My Silicon Valley house consumed ~450kWh/month (15kWh/day) (before we bought an EV) which is very much on the low side from what I see here. 1100sqft. No A/C. Rarely run the heat. Every single light in the house is an LED. Gas appliances. 2 people, not home during the day.

Your neighbour is stealing power. 15kwh/day means you are permanently using 600 Watts. Do you have a stationary (desktop) computer? Or do you underestimate heating. You can burn through your whole years budget easily in less than two month. What about the oven, I mean do you bake?

Ever heard of a refrigerators and freezers?

Re: Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades

#77
post #6

The article says that today a battery pack the size of a backpack and that weighs about 40kg, can power a house for a day. Is that really so? Would that be a normal house, being powered for an entire day? I find it hard to believe that battery would pack that much energy

40kg translates to 4-9kWh depending on the chemistry, meanwhile houses in the UK draw around 3kWh/day averaged over a year so unless a house is woefully inefficient, it checks out.

Every UK source I can find puts it at around 8-10 kWh/day. E.g.,

https://smarterbusiness.co.uk/blogs/average-gas-electricity-...

https://www.electriciancourses4u.co.uk/useful-resources/how-...

https://www.ovoenergy.com/guides/energy-guides/how-much-elec...

Re: Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades

#78
post #71

This is important to keep in mind when you read articles and/or studies about how electric cars or wind or solar power is impractical. A lot of the data these studies use is just obsolete. Say you have an opinion piece in a news paper that says that electric cars will always be expensive toys for the rich. It relies on a scientific paper published in a technical journal 2 years ago. The scientific paper does not perf…

Yes, using obsolete data from when tech was bleeding edge in 1999 to imply things about cost going forward is misleading.

On the other hand using improvement over the same timeline, drawing a line on a graph and saying "look how X Y is gonna be in Z years" is the same exact type of stupid but pointed in a different direction.

In 1991 lithium was highly immature technology and would take about a decade to make it into fragile electronics. It took another decade to make it into power tools. Now it's viable in high end commuter vehicles. If it was easy to predict the future a decade out with any reliability we wouldn't be having this discussion.

Re: Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades

#79
post #38

lithium is just cheap because it wrecks some 3rd world countries natural resources. If they'd slap the price of recovery times it will need to regrow nature in that place, it wouldn't be as cheap.

Which countries? In what way does it wreck them?

Re: Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades

#80
post #71

This is important to keep in mind when you read articles and/or studies about how electric cars or wind or solar power is impractical. A lot of the data these studies use is just obsolete. Say you have an opinion piece in a news paper that says that electric cars will always be expensive toys for the rich. It relies on a scientific paper published in a technical journal 2 years ago. The scientific paper does not perf…

Are there many gains to be had on electric motors? I guess I sort of assumed those had seen quite a bit of optimization already.
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