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New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets

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Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets

#121

Post by christiansakai »

matthias509 wrote: post #43
toolz wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

maybe for developed nations - that doesn't represent much of the world

So high tech crypto is the solution to making trading with the developing world easier? Aren’t these the same sorts of places which struggle to have reliable electricity, let alone internet access?

Believe it or not. You can just use an app that accept crypto payment that is installed in your smartphone in Africa. So the answer is, yes. I can send crypto to an orphan in Africa without going through intermediary. Fast, quick, trustless.

Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets

#122

Post by didi987 »

kache_ wrote: post #88
Daishiman wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is absolutely no evidence backing this. The utility of the WWW was eminently visible to experts even before it existed. I have yet to meet an expert in equivalent fields who complains that the core issues in finance can be solved by cryptocurrencies. In fact I don't really see any issues that can be solved by crypto. Trust issues? Crypto users are as likely if not more to be scammed and the technology itself do…

Purchasing controlled substances and illegal weapons is a problem it solves.

Mr. Ulbricht has been in prison for 8 years now, a lot has changed since the Silk Road

Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets

#123

Post by henvic »

andrewmutz wrote: post #19
henvic wrote: post #9

It's trivial. Just say any is pure speculation of thin air and you'll be right. There's no sense in the currently existing crypto currencies. They're all fiat money. Peter Schiff was right back then... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sgRGBNekFIw and he's still right now. https://twitter.com/peterschiff/status/1345427870546538509

They are fiat money? I don't think they are fiat money. Fiat money has actual utility as you need it to pay your taxes.

Fiat currency is money that isn't backed by something, such as gold.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiat_money https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intrinsic_value_(numismatics)

Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets

#125

Post by bko »

anonporridge wrote: post #109
endisneigh wrote: post #27

It makes sense. In my experience the primary goal for most crypto holders is to be a part of a new elite. This is why the most popular currencies have a fixed supply. That way, if they're popular earlier adopters get to be a part of the elite. With such a premise it makes sense to treat crypto like the lottery as the gain/loss likelihood is very similar to say, Mega Millions. I do see value in a crypto that's pinned…

Even years ago before the previous bull run, the most compelling narrative was that bitcoin would first displace gold as a store of value, and then maybe become a global currency. Some people did still cling to the 'digital cash for everyone' narrative, but it's pretty clear that doesn't scale. It's not clear if bitcoin will scale for global payments with second layers, but it seems like the most compelling approach.…

I read that gold actually outperformed the stock market since the end of the gold standard in the US (1971). I didn't really believe it , but it sort of did, depending on when you bought gold [0]. Not that gold is a good investment, but it does say something that its increased at ~7% a year since introduction of a completely fiat currency. I'm not smart enough to have a story to explain what that all means, but let's just say its ... weird

[0] https://mleverything.substack.com/p/performance-of-gold-sinc...

Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets

#126

Post by hammock »

endisneigh wrote: post #27

It makes sense. In my experience the primary goal for most crypto holders is to be a part of a new elite. This is why the most popular currencies have a fixed supply. That way, if they're popular earlier adopters get to be a part of the elite. With such a premise it makes sense to treat crypto like the lottery as the gain/loss likelihood is very similar to say, Mega Millions. I do see value in a crypto that's pinned…

>I do see value in a crypto that's pinned at a weighted average of every single currencies' worldwide weight. That way you get the advantage of crypto, but it's a perfectly stable currency.

Digital SDRs, also known as IMFcoin. It's coming. Likely in the next two years. It won't be decentralized.

Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets

#127

Post by whatshisface »

35fbe7d3d5b9 wrote: post #112
whatshisface wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How exactly does the Fifth Fleet back the dollar?

Ask Saddam Hussein, who tried to price Iraqi oil in Euros in 2000. Or Gaddafi, who was tolerated by western powers until he tried to introduce the pan-African gold Dinar and encourage oil producing nations to de-dollarize in favor of it.

Is it widely believed among world leaders that the US will invade if they do anything that would harm the USD?

Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets

#128

Post by Daishiman »

lostmsu wrote: post #91
Daishiman wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is absolutely no evidence backing this. The utility of the WWW was eminently visible to experts even before it existed. I have yet to meet an expert in equivalent fields who complains that the core issues in finance can be solved by cryptocurrencies. In fact I don't really see any issues that can be solved by crypto. Trust issues? Crypto users are as likely if not more to be scammed and the technology itself do…

In 2000 have you seen experts in landline companies, who would see WWW as the core solution to their problems?

I saw experts in computing having seen it a long time ago. Finance cotrariams have had way longer and none of their claims have planned out.

Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets

#129

Post by MrMan »

V-2 wrote: post #62
endisneigh wrote: post #27

It makes sense. In my experience the primary goal for most crypto holders is to be a part of a new elite. This is why the most popular currencies have a fixed supply. That way, if they're popular earlier adopters get to be a part of the elite. With such a premise it makes sense to treat crypto like the lottery as the gain/loss likelihood is very similar to say, Mega Millions. I do see value in a crypto that's pinned…

"I do see value in a crypto that's pinned at a weighted average of every single currencies' worldwide weight" The values of currencies are only relative (established by exchange rates). How do you calculate an average for all the existing currencies (weighted or otherwise)? What am I missing?

If you hold a basket of currencies this can be traded as an instrument. There is a long standing proposal for example to speed the adoption of a multi-currency basket as kind of a forced substitution of the dollar as global reserve currency, an idea that has a lot of merit.
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