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New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets

univaasa.fi

21–30 of 193 posts

Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets

#21
post #9

It's trivial. Just say any is pure speculation of thin air and you'll be right. There's no sense in the currently existing crypto currencies. They're all fiat money. Peter Schiff was right back then... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sgRGBNekFIw and he's still right now. https://twitter.com/peterschiff/status/1345427870546538509

globally recognized stores of wealth that can be transferred instantly makes no sense to you? Have you ever tried to trade with someone outside of your country, it's not easy or cheap.

If fiat money is a bad thing, then I guess we're all doomed since the entire worlds economy is based on fiat money.

cryptocurrency will have the ability to solve global equality problems like no other tech has been able to in history.

Don't mistake me as saying bitcoin will be that instrument as there are many technically superior cryptocurrencies out there. Take cardano, for example, it's built in such a way that it could do more global tx/second than VISA currently does and likely use less electricity to achieve that goal.

Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets

#23
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You understand that you're characterising crypto as a pyramid scheme, I guess?

We missed the train on MSFT, AAPL, TSLA, etc. as well. Are those pyramid schemes in your eyes, too?

No, they’re called companies.

Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets

#24
post #9

It's trivial. Just say any is pure speculation of thin air and you'll be right. There's no sense in the currently existing crypto currencies. They're all fiat money. Peter Schiff was right back then... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sgRGBNekFIw and he's still right now. https://twitter.com/peterschiff/status/1345427870546538509

>They're all fiat money.

Is this supposed to be an insult? Are you some Austrian Economics/Gold Standard kook?

Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets

#25
post #21
post #9

It's trivial. Just say any is pure speculation of thin air and you'll be right. There's no sense in the currently existing crypto currencies. They're all fiat money. Peter Schiff was right back then... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sgRGBNekFIw and he's still right now. https://twitter.com/peterschiff/status/1345427870546538509

globally recognized stores of wealth that can be transferred instantly makes no sense to you? Have you ever tried to trade with someone outside of your country, it's not easy or cheap. If fiat money is a bad thing, then I guess we're all doomed since the entire worlds economy is based on fiat money. cryptocurrency will have the ability to solve global equality problems like no other tech has been able to in history.…

> Have you ever tried to trade with someone outside of your country, it's not easy or cheap.

Yes, it's easy and cheap

Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets

#26
post #25
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

globally recognized stores of wealth that can be transferred instantly makes no sense to you? Have you ever tried to trade with someone outside of your country, it's not easy or cheap. If fiat money is a bad thing, then I guess we're all doomed since the entire worlds economy is based on fiat money. cryptocurrency will have the ability to solve global equality problems like no other tech has been able to in history.…

> Have you ever tried to trade with someone outside of your country, it's not easy or cheap. Yes, it's easy and cheap

maybe for developed nations - that doesn't represent much of the world

Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets

#27
It makes sense.

In my experience the primary goal for most crypto holders is to be a part of a new elite. This is why the most popular currencies have a fixed supply. That way, if they're popular earlier adopters get to be a part of the elite. With such a premise it makes sense to treat crypto like the lottery as the gain/loss likelihood is very similar to say, Mega Millions.

I do see value in a crypto that's pinned at a weighted average of every single currencies' worldwide weight. That way you get the advantage of crypto, but it's a perfectly stable currency. Needless to say, very few people at least on HN have bragged about owning an inflationary crypto currency. Why? Because they're not getting rich nor is there an opportunity for them to be a part of the techno-elite.

My biggest concern is a fixed-supply currency gives no government the ability to provide stimulus if necessary. Many advocates argue that governments shouldn't provide stimulus but history shows that's generally a terrible idea (the gold standard, for example, contributed in some ways to The Great Depression).

EDIT: I don't feel like responding individually, but I will say that I've read both the Bitcoin and Ethereum whitepaper and there's nothing about grievances of traditional governments usage of printing of their currencies.

I feel that the "that's a feature" is more a post-hoc rationalization that allows one to say they're in the right while simultaneously benefiting early adopters. Regardless, every government in world history that's pinned their currency to something that's relatively fixed has had a severe depression with some part of that depression being contributed to said pinning. It's just not good economics. Feel free to respond with a contrary example if you'd like.

Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets

#28
post #21
post #9

It's trivial. Just say any is pure speculation of thin air and you'll be right. There's no sense in the currently existing crypto currencies. They're all fiat money. Peter Schiff was right back then... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sgRGBNekFIw and he's still right now. https://twitter.com/peterschiff/status/1345427870546538509

globally recognized stores of wealth that can be transferred instantly makes no sense to you? Have you ever tried to trade with someone outside of your country, it's not easy or cheap. If fiat money is a bad thing, then I guess we're all doomed since the entire worlds economy is based on fiat money. cryptocurrency will have the ability to solve global equality problems like no other tech has been able to in history.…

The “store of wealth” excuse is pretty transparently just to lure greater fools after the crypto-is-money thing didn’t pan out. The only wealth that’s stored is the network of people pumping these things. And guess what: that network will move on to the next thing eventually.

Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets

#29
There are more irrational agents than rational agents in cryptocurrency markets so no surprise there is lottery like behavior. Irrational agents bet on luck earning them profit or something like gut feeling and rational agents bet on analysis they've done and information they've gathered thought out research. And whole cryptomarket is largely unregulated so there are many cases of market manipulation.

You could see what happens when large group of irrational agents enters the market in the case of GameStop.

Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets

#30

how does it compare to the gambling of stocks on Robinhood?

It is probably very similar when it is stocks that are nearing bankruptcy or otherwise have horrid fundamentals. If the stocks do have fundamentals and the PE ratio makes sense relative to the growth factor, then it isn't pure gambling.

The S&P hit 4,000 today, with a P/E ratio of about 40:1.

On Jan 1st 2020 it had a P/E radio of 25:1

Does that make sense?

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