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New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets

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Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets

#61
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

maybe for developed nations - that doesn't represent much of the world

So high tech crypto is the solution to making trading with the developing world easier? Aren’t these the same sorts of places which struggle to have reliable electricity, let alone internet access?

Not only. There are many places with internet and poor banking system, Nigeria comes to mind.

Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets

#62

It makes sense. In my experience the primary goal for most crypto holders is to be a part of a new elite. This is why the most popular currencies have a fixed supply. That way, if they're popular earlier adopters get to be a part of the elite. With such a premise it makes sense to treat crypto like the lottery as the gain/loss likelihood is very similar to say, Mega Millions. I do see value in a crypto that's pinned…

"I do see value in a crypto that's pinned at a weighted average of every single currencies' worldwide weight"

The values of currencies are only relative (established by exchange rates). How do you calculate an average for all the existing currencies (weighted or otherwise)? What am I missing?

Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets

#63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which crypto projects are providing real utility to people outside the crypto space? I can think of using bitcoin for remittances or drug purchases, but other than that I have trouble thinking of compelling examples.

Having only cursory knowledge of this space I'll take a stab at an answer: every consumer of a company that uses crypto internally. AWS doesn't provide any real utility for people outside of the AWS space except for consumers of companies that use AWS. Feel free to point out I'm wrong as again I don't follow this space in-depth.

The difference is that it almost never makes sense for a company to use cryptocurrency technology "internally". If you don't want to be a Bitcoin-esque distributed anonymous organization -- if you want to be able to comply with laws or sign legally-binding contracts, for example -- traditional database technology is much cheaper and easier to use.

Some companies have announced cryptocurrency-related initiatives, but the only benefit to them is that lottery-like speculator behavior might pump up their stock. (See companies like Long Blockchain, formerly known as Long Island Iced Tea.)

Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets

#64

To the anti-BTC crowd: Yes, the current price of crypto is based on speculation, not in their current utility. But there also was a dotcom bubble 20 years ago. Does that mean that the World Wide Web is useless? Cryptocurrencies will be highly useful as stores of value and maybe as currency. We're just not there yet. This is just the Gartner hype cycle, with the addition that for the first time we have a global market…

There is absolutely no evidence backing this.

The utility of the WWW was eminently visible to experts even before it existed.

I have yet to meet an expert in equivalent fields who complains that the core issues in finance can be solved by cryptocurrencies.

In fact I don't really see any issues that can be solved by crypto. Trust issues? Crypto users are as likely if not more to be scammed and the technology itself doesn't build trust any more than a webpage does; it's the backing of a legal system that does.

International transfers? Google for a few minutes and you can find plenty of places where you can get mostly decent rates. The only places I can think of where this is an issue are Argentina and Venezuela, but that's not a niche that corresponds with the current or future crypto market valuations.

Descentralized trust? If there's one thing I trust less than human institutions, it's "bug-free" code.

Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets

#65

It makes sense. In my experience the primary goal for most crypto holders is to be a part of a new elite. This is why the most popular currencies have a fixed supply. That way, if they're popular earlier adopters get to be a part of the elite. With such a premise it makes sense to treat crypto like the lottery as the gain/loss likelihood is very similar to say, Mega Millions. I do see value in a crypto that's pinned…

[deleted]

Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets

#66
post #51

It makes sense. In my experience the primary goal for most crypto holders is to be a part of a new elite. This is why the most popular currencies have a fixed supply. That way, if they're popular earlier adopters get to be a part of the elite. With such a premise it makes sense to treat crypto like the lottery as the gain/loss likelihood is very similar to say, Mega Millions. I do see value in a crypto that's pinned…

>My biggest concern is a fixed-supply currency gives no government the ability to provide stimulus if necessary. That's... that's the whole point.

What makes you so eager to live in a deflationary money system?

Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets

#67

It makes sense. In my experience the primary goal for most crypto holders is to be a part of a new elite. This is why the most popular currencies have a fixed supply. That way, if they're popular earlier adopters get to be a part of the elite. With such a premise it makes sense to treat crypto like the lottery as the gain/loss likelihood is very similar to say, Mega Millions. I do see value in a crypto that's pinned…

> but I will say that I've read both the Bitcoin and Ethereum whitepaper and there's nothing about grievances of traditional governments usage of printing of their currencies

From Bitcoin's genesis block: "The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks".

Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets

#68

It makes sense. In my experience the primary goal for most crypto holders is to be a part of a new elite. This is why the most popular currencies have a fixed supply. That way, if they're popular earlier adopters get to be a part of the elite. With such a premise it makes sense to treat crypto like the lottery as the gain/loss likelihood is very similar to say, Mega Millions. I do see value in a crypto that's pinned…

I think you overestimate the importance of whether an emission is capped or not. I would argue [1] that the more important issue is whether the inflation rate is eventually negligible, which is where fiat is lacking.

[1] https://john-tromp.medium.com/a-case-for-using-soft-total-su...

Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets

#69
post #59
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I do see value in a crypto that's pinned at a weighted average of every single currencies' worldwide weight, but it's a perfectly stable currency If every government in the world is printing money like crazy, how is this "stable". In the US, 23% of the money supply was created in the last year, with no visible inflation (excluding asset prices, home, energy, etc). God knows what it'll be 5 years from now What has b…

> If every government in the world is printing money like crazy, how is this "stable". It's stable because during a recession, as loans are closed out or default or just don't get issued, money gets destroyed/created slower. The government may be printing money, but fractional reserve banks aren't. This is a point on which most people who talk about printing presses are completely ignorant of.

Maybe there are fewer loans because business prospects are worse. By every measure of money supply, the amount has increased.

Again, its a complicated system. Playing games is dangerous, especially when everything is politicized and no one is held accountable for their actions.

Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets

#70
post #66
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>My biggest concern is a fixed-supply currency gives no government the ability to provide stimulus if necessary. That's... that's the whole point.

What makes you so eager to live in a deflationary money system?

I'd prefer to live in a hybrid system where I can allocate what I need, where I need, when I want.

There is a very good argument for fiat as well as a good argument for crypto.

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