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U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

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Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#181

Post by ruslan »

djohnston wrote: post #21
Abishek_Muthian wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Someone mentioned in an earlier discussion here without sources that the TSMC is rigged to blow in case of such an event.

I definitely believe Taiwan would rather burn it than see it in the hands of their greatest adversary. Rigged to blow seems silly but I expect they would bomb it to dust.

Bombing is not necessary. Ceasing supplies will turn it into dust in a moment of time, irreversibly. Consider Samsung factories in Texas that are still stalling, caused by quite short electric power outage.

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#182

Post by mensetmanusman »

newbie578 wrote: post #36

Unfortunately, I do not doubt that China will try to take Taiwan, the bigger question is how is the West going to react? I just hope we are not going to do the detrimental appeasement policy like with letting Hitler take the Sudets. I do wonder if there is a politician in the west with the stomach to confront CCP. I just cannot help but congratulate the CCP on their well played long game of chess. China has transform…

It’s true, the horror of NK has lent credence to MacArthur’ strategy, if you are an ‘ends justify the means’ type.

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#183

Post by MrRiddle »

Kinrany wrote: post #18
hawk_ wrote: post #7

If you're to follow local media in China, the rhetoric around taking back Taiwan has grown stronger. Winnie the pooh also got a time limit extension on CCP leadership on the platform of a fully unified China. The signs are all there, though I just don't see how anything resembling a conventional warfare can happen there. The potential lives at risk are quite high and if the toll is that high it will be difficult to s…

I don't think they had or needed substantial local support in Crimea. A bunch of zealots will do.

Crimean population is overwhelmingly Russian, and most of them were for joining Russia.

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#184

Post by [deleted] »

rdsubhas wrote: post #159

A lot of comments on military response. None of that really matters. The first is always a political and domestic response, and if that is not there (in the US), there will be no military response, only "stern condemnations". Does the US have a political climate to support a defense of Taiwan (current R/D divide), and a domestic story to sell to US citizens on why it should intervene? What is their reason to defend i…

[deleted]

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#185

Post by dirtyid »

summerlight wrote: post #137

Let's assess its feasibility first. In the point of the China military view, a significant portion of the Taiwan island occupation must be done before the US intervention. And their limited amphibious attack capability complicates the problem. Taiwan has 200k standing army and 250k more reserve forces, thus China probably needs to deploy at least 500k, preferably more than 1M of its army into Taiwan within a week or…

PRC will face the 7th fleet and more regardless, that's the default expectation and pretty much the singular vision shaping Chinese military modernization. Everything is oriented towards sufficiently confronting USN far out in SCS / Malacca - far away from Taiwan, preferably in enough numbers to deter actual battle or blockade. Taiwan itself has little baring on SCS security. It will be mostly peer affair between China and US.

Taking TW itself is a much easier problem and IMO already forgone assuming USN can be managed away from theatre. There aren't any recent credible war games by PRC/US that suggests Taiwan forces can hold out for more than days/weeks. The expectation is unfettered PRC air superiority which opens up options for invasion or IMO more likely, blockades or quarantines to siege island into compliance with out boots on the ground. TW is grossly food and energy insecure and an un-reinforceable island within PRC A2AD that it's doubtful US can penetrate. PRC on domestic war economy + reserves can maintain military several times larger than what she currently fields, she is not Japan. The complete lack of amphib acquisitions on PRC modernization suggest to me a massive invasion is not default. The entire concept of DDAY style invasion is anachronistic, based on period where PRC military was limited to WW2 capabilities not 2020 or 2035, or 2050.

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#186

Post by Redoubts »

riku_iki wrote: post #165
hilbertseries wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> will just ban all Chinese trade This can’t be done without triggering a depression and causing massive shortages. The economies are too connected. We could add more sanctions, increase tariffs look at better trade deals to encourage buying non China. But the idea of just banning Chinese trade is fantasy.

> The economies are too connected US export to China represents only 6% of total (100B out of 1.5T) and import is 18% (439B out of 2.38T). Most of import is likely not critical and can easily be substituted by domestic manufacturers, or manufacturers from other countries. Source of data: https://oec.world/en/profile/country/usa

> can easily be substituted by domestic manufacturers, or manufacturers from other countries.

How can anyone take this seriously after early 2020’s hysteria around mask and ventilator construction

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#187

Post by FpUser »

hpoe wrote: post #111
xibalba wrote: post #91

Whenever I see articles like this, my gut reaction is to think of every damn foreign conflict the U.S. has been involved in post-WWII. Have we not learned our lessons yet? Is it really in our best interests to get involved in yet another far flung military conflict? What will the return on lives lost and trillions of $$$ spent be?

The CCP must be stopped. If China takes Taiwan and we do not stop them our children and grandchildren will look upon us in the same manner we looked upon Neville Chamberlain and his policy of appeasement to avoid a conflict with Nazi Germany, and if the US stands up to the CCP I will gladly sign up to carry a gun. This isn't because I think America is perfect it isn't because I think that we are the 100% blameless go…

>"The CCP must be stopped. If China takes Taiwan and we do not stop them our children and grandchildren will look upon us in the same manner"

No country in their right mind will ever directly attack the US. Your children would be safe and would not give rat's ass about some country (is that a country?) far away. I am curious how many US kids are even aware about its existence and status.

What the US might loose is the ability to tell everyone how high they should jump. Well the US will still be very rich and advanced country and not gonna go hungry. They might even still be a world leader if instead of playing god in middle east and other places they would concentrate on something productive.

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#188

Post by beloch »

PureParadigm wrote: post #145
ddevault wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taiwan already officially considers itself an independent country, and maintains a large, sophisticated military for the purpose of defending this status.

What I meant is declare themselves independent from mainland China (dropping the claims on the mainland). This would provoke China by violating the Anti-Secession Law [1]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-Secession_Law

Article 8 is a doozy. I was ignorant of it.

From the sounds of it, Taiwan doesn't want to declare its independence nor signal there is no hope of peaceful reunification with mainland China because either of these would trigger an attack mandated by PRC law.

It really does seem as though Taiwan is between a rock and a hard place here. To gain formal status as a country and enter formal mutual defence treaties, they'd have to trigger a Chinese attack. If they don't have formal treaties, they could be absorbed at any time without anyone doing anything. It's either certain attack or risk an attack with no allies.

Talk about being held hostage. There should be more international pressure on the PRC to eliminate Article 8.

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#189

Post by 2OEH8eoCRo0 »

cpleppert wrote: post #67

I think this article essentially misses the mark. China isn't flirting with taking Taiwan because the leader is willing to take risks; China is flirting with taking Taiwan because it now has overwhelming military superiority over Taiwan. The United States has bases thousands of miles away while Chinese bases are literally right there. China's capital spending on military capabilities (new + direct research & developm…

Taiwan is 749km from Okinawa which houses III Marine Expeditionary Force

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#190

Post by jtdev »

knz wrote: post #89
kstenerud wrote: post #37

Now is the most favorable time for China to strike. With everyone reeling from the pandemic, a centralized government can temporarily move faster than everyone else and consolidate faster than everyone else. A chance like this won't come again, so I'd be pretty surprised if they didn't make their move this year.

Not to mention we are twenty years into the Global War on Terrorism. The appetite of the US public for another conflict, especially one directly against a superpower, is exceptionally low.

Appetite is exceptionally low for ill advised forever wars... defending an ally against the CCP however is something that many Americans would likely be in favor of.
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