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Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

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Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#481

Post by kevbin »

dang wrote: post #453
president wrote: post #449

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We need to avoid demonizing China over this Not a productive message and this sentiment just distracts from the discussion, which is playing into China's narrative. > if we want to ever find out the truth and learn how to prevent another pandemic outbreak. It's a bit late isn't it? China witheld early information about the virus and prevented WHO scientists from visiting ground zero. Silencing journalists and censo…

This comment is a noticeable step into nationalistic flamewar. Please don't do that in HN comments. That way lies hell, and we're trying for a different sort of discussion here. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

The truth hurts. China released a deadly virus into the world. It tried to cover it up. It tried to blackmail Australia. It is extorting Africa.

China and the Chinese people must accept their responsibility for this catastrophe. They must let the rest of the world, in the guise of the UN, come in and sort out how much of this crime was intentional and how much incompetence.

China must be held accountable. It should pay reparations. It should be forced to suspend any and all biomedical research until it can provably meet western safety standards.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#482

Post by Enginerrrd »

Pyramus wrote: post #273
bpodgursky wrote: post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Wuhan lab was absolutely involved in gain-of-function research. This has been widely reported https://www.newsweek.com/controversial-wuhan-lab-experiments... > What's more, Wuhan Institute of Virology scientists have for the past five years been engaged in so-called "gain of function" (GOF) research, which is designed to enhance certain properties of viruses for the purpose of anticipating future pandemics. Gain-…

I'm not doubting that at all, see also this statement by a US embassy [1]. What I'm saying is that we don't have strong (any?) evidence that SARS-CoV-2 is the result of gain of function research. It is entirely possible but the majority of the scientists who do gain of function research say it's unlikely (given what we know today, which might change). Again, a credible source saying the opposite is appreciated. [1] h…

>What I'm saying is that we don't have strong (any?) evidence that SARS-CoV-2 is the result of gain of function research

There is analysis that suggests that SARS-CoV-2 wasn't engineered. However, if you were intentionally giving it to a bunch of animals in batches with some interspecies mixing, you wouldn't really expect it to look any different than a natural jump.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#483

Post by m0llusk »

watertom wrote: post #452

A lot of smart people in this forum. Someone please explain to me how the Chinese were able to identify that that had a new virus. I’ve done pandemic drills with homeland security. They said they way you know you’ve got a new virus floating around is either new symptoms; significantly more “flu like” cases; significantly more cases escalating to pneumonia; increased deaths. Covid presents like the flu, so much so you…

You should look up some of the leaked videos on the Internet. There was in fact a huge spike in cases early on and people were dropping dead in the street. That was the freak out that led to the Communist Party not being able to keep a lid on the whole mess. It wasn't just sick people showing up in hospitals in huge numbers, it was dead bodies lying in the streets.

The thing is that whether this came from a lab or not is of limited relevance. Viruses have been hopping from animal hosts from humans for a while and if anything this one was late and long expected. Either way the kind of preparations we need to make for future events are the same.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#484

Post by anthony_romeo »

gregwebs wrote: post #397

This is a great article explaining why a lab leak should always be a suspect. The alternative theory is that a virus traveled on its own (via bats or other animals) from bat caves 900km away to Wuhan where there are 2 labs researching bats. One of the labs is lesser known but is right next to the seafood market and the hospital where the outbreak was first known. [1] This article points out that a lab outbreak could…

I agree. Personally I’ve not dismissed this possibility at all. But as it stands, it’s just a hypothesis with suggestive information, but nothing concrete. There are verified wrongs to criticize them for right now, and can be a starting point for remediation, rather than drum up hate and criticism of mere hypothetical wrongs. (And of course, one such example of a verifiable wrong could be proof of Chinese institutions destroying evidence of the disease’s origin...)

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#485

Post by hokumguru »

dang wrote: post #453
president wrote: post #449

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We need to avoid demonizing China over this Not a productive message and this sentiment just distracts from the discussion, which is playing into China's narrative. > if we want to ever find out the truth and learn how to prevent another pandemic outbreak. It's a bit late isn't it? China witheld early information about the virus and prevented WHO scientists from visiting ground zero. Silencing journalists and censo…

This comment is a noticeable step into nationalistic flamewar. Please don't do that in HN comments. That way lies hell, and we're trying for a different sort of discussion here. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

Taking a step back, does he not at least bring up some valid points?

The CCP did bar scientists from early investigation and has gone to considerable lengths to suppress national news outlets from properly reporting on the issue at hand.

This does at least deserve some criticism.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#486

Post by selectodude »

danudey wrote: post #347
zozin wrote: post #300

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe, just maybe you can care about two things at the same time? Maybe, just maybe, a Wuhan lab leak was concealed by the Chinese gov't to save face, thus shrinking the amount of time we had to respond fast in order to save lives?

Western nations had plenty of time to react, relatively speaking. The US was hit especially hard, though, by policies which dismantled the government's ability to handle this sort of event, the discarding of a practiced playbook for responding to this sort of event, and government and right-wing lies and conspiracy theories. Given that the US government's response was basically to do nothing until it was too late, an…

The virus was ripping roughshod through Northern Italy and New York City in January. It's nothing but an anecdotal data point but my friend had a suspicious cough in the middle of February and I tested positive for antibodies in May.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#487

Post by ryanSrich »

m0llusk wrote: post #483
watertom wrote: post #452

A lot of smart people in this forum. Someone please explain to me how the Chinese were able to identify that that had a new virus. I’ve done pandemic drills with homeland security. They said they way you know you’ve got a new virus floating around is either new symptoms; significantly more “flu like” cases; significantly more cases escalating to pneumonia; increased deaths. Covid presents like the flu, so much so you…

You should look up some of the leaked videos on the Internet. There was in fact a huge spike in cases early on and people were dropping dead in the street. That was the freak out that led to the Communist Party not being able to keep a lid on the whole mess. It wasn't just sick people showing up in hospitals in huge numbers, it was dead bodies lying in the streets. The thing is that whether this came from a lab or no…

> There was in fact a huge spike in cases early on and people were dropping dead in the street

Wasn't this happening well after they knew the virus existed? From my understanding, they knew the virus existed very early on. Much early than when people were dropping dead in the streets or getting dragged out of their apartments.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#488

Post by benlumen »

dang wrote: post #28
benlumen wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Literally a brand new account shilling a US origin theory. This is the internet now.

Please don't. I know it doesn't feel this way, but replying is worse than the original comment. If people follow the site guidelines and flag such provocations without replying, the thread grounds out. By feeding it, you furnish a circuit and all the current necessary for a prolonged electrocution. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

Understood, thanks for taking the time to explain.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#489

Post by VivaCascadia »

watertom wrote: post #452

A lot of smart people in this forum. Someone please explain to me how the Chinese were able to identify that that had a new virus. I’ve done pandemic drills with homeland security. They said they way you know you’ve got a new virus floating around is either new symptoms; significantly more “flu like” cases; significantly more cases escalating to pneumonia; increased deaths. Covid presents like the flu, so much so you…

This episode of Frontline does a really good job of walking through the timeline of what was discovered and when, and how long they sat on that information before taking action.

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/film/chinas-covid-secrets...

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#490

Post by xienze »

watertom wrote: post #452

A lot of smart people in this forum. Someone please explain to me how the Chinese were able to identify that that had a new virus. I’ve done pandemic drills with homeland security. They said they way you know you’ve got a new virus floating around is either new symptoms; significantly more “flu like” cases; significantly more cases escalating to pneumonia; increased deaths. Covid presents like the flu, so much so you…

> I’ve always believed this was an lab accident by a technician that needed their job so they covered it up until they and too many family members got sick and it was obvious something was wrong.

Really drove me nuts how early on everyone, everyone was working overtime to try and dismiss the possibility that this was some sort of lab leak. I’m sorry but the way China went absolutely DEFCON 1 (welding people into their apartments, blocking the roads out of town, nightly fumigations of public spaces) within a short period of time strongly suggests that they had a “oh crap, _that thing we were working on got out_” moment. Never understood why people were so eager to dismiss this possibility.

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