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Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

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Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#221

Post by tehjoker »

saas_sam wrote: post #209
tehjoker wrote: post #161

Pretty incredible how far the US media will go to deflect attention from how bad the US response to the pandemic was to China. "Let me be clear: Labs in Wuhan might not have played any role in the origin of the pandemic. But a year later, no source has been found, and the world deserves a thorough, unbiased investigation of all plausible theories that is conducted without fear or favor." Okay. So basically this autho…

Did you know officials sent a warning in 2018 about the Wuhan Institute of Virology warning that their experiments were dangerous and the facility was run poorly, risking a new Sars-like pandemic? https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-52318539 Did you know the CCP arrested the first doctor sounding the alarm about COVID? https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51364382 Did you know viruses have escaped from…

"The Washington Post newspaper reported information obtained from diplomatic cables on 14 April. They show that, in 2018, US science diplomats were sent on repeated visits to a Chinese research facility.

Officials sent two warnings to Washington about the lab. The column says the officials were worried about safety and management weaknesses at the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) and called for more help." ... "What kinds of security failures were the cables describing?

The short answer is we don't know from the information provided in the Washington Post. But, generally speaking, there are multiple ways that safety measures can be breached at labs dealing with biological agents.

According to Dr Lentzos, these include: "Who has access to the lab, the training and refresher-training of scientists and technicians, procedures for record-keeping, signage, inventory lists of pathogens, accident notification practices, emergency procedures.""

In other words, all the information is non-public and coming from the entirely unreliable US Intelligence services whose job is to lie and make the US government look good. If these reports had been published (meaning in public documents) prior to the pandemic OR there was an admission by the Chinese government, this would be far more credible.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#222

Post by cowmoo728 »

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #205
cowmoo728 wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

COVID-19 is one of the few serious diseases that can transmit when the carrier is asymptomatic. That could be a credible reason why a potential lab leak went unnoticed for long enough to begin uncontrolled community spread.

> COVID-19 is one of the few serious diseases that can transmit when the carrier is asymptomatic. Is this actually true? It is certainly not true for HIV, and of course is not relevant to diseases like Zika that are transmitted by mosquitos. Edit: I found the answer to my own question: https://www.kff.org/infographic/ebola-characteristics-and-co... (see second bullet point). Given that this lists Hep C, HIV, Influenz…

I can clarify it: COVID-19 is just about the only serious respiratory disease that undergoes rapid exponential spread and is transmissible while asymptomatic. That's a lot of qualifiers, but it makes for a uniquely scary pandemic threat.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#223

Post by ALittleLight »

ceejayoz wrote: post #118
goatinaboat wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

were placed randomly around the world, you'd be correct - but they're not. They're placed near locations The world’s foremost institute for tropical medicine is in London, England. So that debunks that idea.

I mean, that's a practical side effect of the fact that England owned much of the tropics for a few centuries. It's further evidence that these things get sited sensibly, not randomly.

Sensibly, yes, but not their location isn't based on geographic proximity but rather what is a sensible location for the group building and staffing the lab.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#224

Post by chc »

temp8964 wrote: post #140

Wow. Why every comment questioned your argument is downvoted or even dead? > is-ought 34 minutes ago [dead] [–] > Can you link to something that proves this is the criteria used for lab placement? How is this even dead? It's only asking for a reference.

Can you link to something that proves this is only asking for a reference?

That's what the comment sounded like to me, and why I downvoted it. It does not come across to me as a good-faith request for a reference, and more like an attempt to DOS the conversation, similar to a Gish gallop. For example, it's asking for a specific link that constitutes proof of a general observation of tendency. That doesn't scream "reasonable request."

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#225

Post by AzzieElbab »

colllectorof wrote: post #195
crx07 wrote: post #21

This has honestly been my unbiased opinion since essentially day 1. I believe that the release was almost certainly a complete accident, but there's just no realistic chance a novel virus coincidentally originates in the same isolated place as a lab that specializes in that exact same type of virus. The denialists, including the WHO and CDC and everyone else, need to get real and own up to what happened and figure ou…

Look, dude, leading experts have looked at this claim and said there is nearly zero chance this has was a lab leak: https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/04/23/8417296... I mean, yeah, five out of 6 cited experts have ties to EcoHealth Alliance, which in turn has funding ties to one of the two virology labs in Wuhan, but that's, like, just a coincidence. If it wasn't, I'm sure NPR would mention it. And then…

The WHO and Peter Daszak also said they weren’t given enough access to develop any deliberate conclusions.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#226

Post by notsobig »

synergy20 wrote: post #141
tbenst wrote: post #122

This article is written by a journalist who is clearly knowledgeable about safety practices and mistakes in US labs, but does not consider the extensive knowledge we have about the sequence of SARS-COV2. The preponderance of evidence supports a natural origin of the virus. This is no way exonerates the Wuhan government from possible culpability—indeed government officials did deliberately suppress information—but thi…

I recall China passed an urgent law at lightening speed to enforce safe practice in the bio-virus-labs across the nation a few weeks after the outbreak. It might tell you something. Also it refused fiercely to let foreign experts in to investigate, which is also hard to explain other than something MUST be hidden at all costs.

"urgent law at lightning speed" is unnecessary and extreme bias. It might tell me something if you included a source.

A rational actor would take the opportunity to do this regardless of whether or not the source was known at the time. If it were even a possibility, you would hope they would use the outbreak as a reminder to take containment practices as seriously as possible.

Whether or not to allow foreign investigators is a political decision. Maybe they calculated it would appear as an admission of guilt or incompetence.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#227

Post by bpodgursky »

Pyramus wrote: post #159
vergessenmir wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's also been reported that it wasn't the season for the bat species. Those in favour of the lab leak hypothesis point out that the virus showed up on the scene with all the evolutionary capability to spread amongst humans i.e with batteries included. With previous Sars viruses my understanding is that each zoonotic jump was traceable with examples of previous forms in prior animal hosts to corroborate the lineage.…

You are mixing two theories here: A) A lab leak B) Gain of function research. My understanding is that A) is very much possible because it has happened before (SARS), but we have no evidence yet (and might never acquire). For B) however, from my limited understanding, there is no strong evidence. We only know about a fraction of existing coronaviruses out there and given we observe one, that has caused a pandemic, th…

The Wuhan lab was absolutely involved in gain-of-function research. This has been widely reported https://www.newsweek.com/controversial-wuhan-lab-experiments...

> What's more, Wuhan Institute of Virology scientists have for the past five years been engaged in so-called "gain of function" (GOF) research, which is designed to enhance certain properties of viruses for the purpose of anticipating future pandemics. Gain-of-function techniques have been used to turn viruses into human pathogens capable of causing a global pandemic.

> This is no nefarious secret program in an underground military bunker. The Wuhan lab received funding, mostly for virus discovery, in part from a ten-year, $200 million international program called PREDICT, funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development and other countries.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#228

Post by polartx »

Pyramus wrote: post #159
vergessenmir wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's also been reported that it wasn't the season for the bat species. Those in favour of the lab leak hypothesis point out that the virus showed up on the scene with all the evolutionary capability to spread amongst humans i.e with batteries included. With previous Sars viruses my understanding is that each zoonotic jump was traceable with examples of previous forms in prior animal hosts to corroborate the lineage.…

You are mixing two theories here: A) A lab leak B) Gain of function research. My understanding is that A) is very much possible because it has happened before (SARS), but we have no evidence yet (and might never acquire). For B) however, from my limited understanding, there is no strong evidence. We only know about a fraction of existing coronaviruses out there and given we observe one, that has caused a pandemic, th…

Isn’t he referring to a lab leak of a virus which was engineered with ‘gains of function’. I’m particularly convinced of this theory because it explains the glaring weakness of the Covid-19 virus to UV radiation (ie sunlight). If Chinese researches were modifying viral samples to gain functions (evolutionary or otherwise), weakness against sunlight is a believable oversight, considering it wouldn’t have been subjected to it indoors.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#229

Post by goatcode »

Ancapistani wrote: post #24
crx07 wrote: post #21

This has honestly been my unbiased opinion since essentially day 1. I believe that the release was almost certainly a complete accident, but there's just no realistic chance a novel virus coincidentally originates in the same isolated place as a lab that specializes in that exact same type of virus. The denialists, including the WHO and CDC and everyone else, need to get real and own up to what happened and figure ou…

> there's just no realistic chance a novel virus coincidentally originates in the same isolated place as a lab that specializes in that exact same type of virus. I think that it is at least somewhat likely that it was the result of the lab's activities, but your assertion here has a huge dose of selection bias. If the virology labs studying coronaviruses were placed randomly around the world, you'd be correct - but t…

> It would be equivalent to say that lighthouses cause ships to run aground, because many teams when ships run aground it's near a lighthouse.

But if a lighthouse manufactured coral reefs, and the coral reefs on which ships were running aground displayed features of those that a given lighthouse manufactured, it might be more accurate.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#230

Post by xdavidliu »

colllectorof wrote: post #195
crx07 wrote: post #21

This has honestly been my unbiased opinion since essentially day 1. I believe that the release was almost certainly a complete accident, but there's just no realistic chance a novel virus coincidentally originates in the same isolated place as a lab that specializes in that exact same type of virus. The denialists, including the WHO and CDC and everyone else, need to get real and own up to what happened and figure ou…

Look, dude, leading experts have looked at this claim and said there is nearly zero chance this has was a lab leak: https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/04/23/8417296... I mean, yeah, five out of 6 cited experts have ties to EcoHealth Alliance, which in turn has funding ties to one of the two virology labs in Wuhan, but that's, like, just a coincidence. If it wasn't, I'm sure NPR would mention it. And then…

I have no strong opinions on this matter, but I'm having difficulty understanding the sarcasm here. Can someone translate for me? Is the un-sarcastic version of parent's argument that most of the claims against this being a leak were put forth by a single organization, EcoHealth Alliance, which has an agenda for convincing people that this is not a leak?
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