Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed • Hacker News Board

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#71

Post by viklove » Mon, Mar 22, 2021, 7:57 PM UTC

dang wrote: post #40

viklove wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

HN has such odd and draconian rules that should really come under scrutiny more often. We're not allowed to think or say certain things? What?

I wish they would come under scrutiny more often—it would mean people are reading them! Everything on https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html is derived from (a) HN's core value of intellectual curiosity, which is the sole thing we're optimizing for ( https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&sor... ), and (b) well over 10 years of experience operating this place. Not only that, but they're ga…

It's very hard to be intellectually curious when I'm only allowed to post 3-4 comments an hour. What if I'm having a conversation with someone? Why am I not allowed to respond?

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#72

Post by ekianjo » Mon, Mar 22, 2021, 7:57 PM UTC

daly wrote: post #15

For expert opinion on this subject listen to actual virologists. They do a podcast about 2-3 times a week. https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/

Oh yeah, how reliable the experts were all along during this pandemic. We should be so glad we had them from day 1.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#73

Post by Aunche » Mon, Mar 22, 2021, 7:57 PM UTC

crx07 wrote: post #21

This has honestly been my unbiased opinion since essentially day 1. I believe that the release was almost certainly a complete accident, but there's just no realistic chance a novel virus coincidentally originates in the same isolated place as a lab that specializes in that exact same type of virus. The denialists, including the WHO and CDC and everyone else, need to get real and own up to what happened and figure ou…

> there's just no realistic chance a novel virus coincidentally originates in the same isolated place as a lab that specializes in that exact same type of virus

Why not? Wuhan is the 43rd largest city in the world. Meanwhile, the earliest cases of CoVid were all connected to the same wet market. Doesn't that have a higher probability being the origin?

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#74

Post by roywiggins » Mon, Mar 22, 2021, 7:57 PM UTC

duxup wrote: post #54

I wouldn't dismiss it. I just haven't seen any evidence of it that I think 'proves' it.

Serious coronaviruses have jumped into people like, twice in the last 20 years entirely naturally[0], and so many more people have contact with animals outside of labs than within labs (orders of magnitude!), that it seems much more likely that SARS-CoV-2 jumped the same way than any lab-leak idea. Like, it's physically possible, and it would be important to know if that's what happened- people shouldn't dismiss it!- but I don't know how much it should be entertained as a real likelihood.

[0] natural insofar as humans intruding onto wildlife is natural

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#75

Post by pretendscholar » Mon, Mar 22, 2021, 7:58 PM UTC

daly wrote: post #15

For expert opinion on this subject listen to actual virologists. They do a podcast about 2-3 times a week. https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/

Could you summarize their arguments rather than drop a content bomb and run away? Its really lazy and unproductive.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#76

Post by duxup » Mon, Mar 22, 2021, 7:58 PM UTC

kneel wrote: post #66

IMO it's very likely to have originated in a lab leak. It doesn't matter much however since there is no evidence, and any evidence of such will likely be covered up. Being culpable for a disaster on this scale would be unprecedented in the economic reparations, so much so that we'll likely never find the origins.

>Being culpable for a disaster on this scale would be unprecedented in the economic reparations

I duno if that would ever really happen. I think much like a lot of things, concerns about Uyghurs it would just dissolve into the diplomatic and economic seas.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#77

Post by airhead969 » Mon, Mar 22, 2021, 7:58 PM UTC

duxup wrote: post #62

airhead969 wrote: post #58

It seems like more Western MSM yellow journalism hating on China with FUD.

Outside of some noteworthy scummy politicians and a few partisan media outlets. I really haven't seen much in the way of MSM media pushing that theory as fact.

It doesn't matter if they're pushing this far-fetched hypothesis as "fact" or not, they're pushing it by continuously regurgitating such speculative FUD without evidence.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#78

Post by goatinaboat » Mon, Mar 22, 2021, 7:58 PM UTC

Ancapistani wrote: post #24

crx07 wrote: post #21

This has honestly been my unbiased opinion since essentially day 1. I believe that the release was almost certainly a complete accident, but there's just no realistic chance a novel virus coincidentally originates in the same isolated place as a lab that specializes in that exact same type of virus. The denialists, including the WHO and CDC and everyone else, need to get real and own up to what happened and figure ou…

> there's just no realistic chance a novel virus coincidentally originates in the same isolated place as a lab that specializes in that exact same type of virus. I think that it is at least somewhat likely that it was the result of the lab's activities, but your assertion here has a huge dose of selection bias. If the virology labs studying coronaviruses were placed randomly around the world, you'd be correct - but t…

were placed randomly around the world, you'd be correct - but they're not. They're placed near locations

The world’s foremost institute for tropical medicine is in London, England. So that debunks that idea.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#79

Post by vergessenmir » Mon, Mar 22, 2021, 7:58 PM UTC

bpodgursky wrote: post #43

ch4s3 wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't really have a stake in this, and no real idea how plausible the lab accident theory is. That said, don't you think that the location of a lab like that would be highly correlated with the location of dangerous natural viral reservoir? Or put another way, if you wanted to study zoonotic viruses, wouldn't you put your lab in a place like that?

Not really. The lab is in a major city, and imported samples from all over China (and the rest of the world). The hypothesized bat in question, if it was really a wet-market outbreak, was imported from hundreds of miles away.

It's also been reported that it wasn't the season for the bat species.

Those in favour of the lab leak hypothesis point out that the virus showed up on the scene with all the evolutionary capability to spread amongst humans i.e with batteries included.

With previous Sars viruses my understanding is that each zoonotic jump was traceable with examples of previous forms in prior animal hosts to corroborate the lineage.

What makes Covid-19 interesting is that these zoonotic jumps or the gain of functions can be accelerated in the lab with the purpose of preparing us ahead of time for a dangerous forms of Sars style viruses. It looks like covid-19 may be that type of strain, not man made, but given the lab conditions for it to gain the capability. It may have escaped.

It's worth exploring the lab leak hypothesis but I would say that it's not politically expedient for any of the scientists or parties involved. We will never really know the truth and that is something we need to grow comfortable with.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#80

Post by hn_throwaway_99 » Mon, Mar 22, 2021, 7:59 PM UTC

tshaddox wrote: post #60

bugzz wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's never been found in an influenza virus in nature, but covid isn't an influenza virus. Is this never found in coronaviruses in nature?

From that second link: > Although they only emerge under artificial conditions in influenza viruses, these furin cleavage sites are found within several branches of the coronavirus family tree. However SARS‐CoV‐2 is the only lineage B coronavirus found with one, and the only other coronaviruses known to have them are only at most 60% identical to this novel coronavirus.

I'm not waynesonfire, but seriously, what is up with people making deliberately misleading claims (e.g. highlighting it is not found in influenza viruses, even though covid virus is not influenza), and then providing a link that specifically debunks the implication they are trying to make.

It's like people just depend on nobody following the links they post.