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Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

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471–480 of 1001 posts

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#471

Most of the media coverage and consensus, from the Washington Post to Nature, seems to be that: - the lab escape theory has been thoroughly debunked by science - the WHO investigation put the final nails in the coffin of this theory - therefore, lab escape continues to be a fringe conspiracy theory at best - coverage of the lab escape theory is politically motivated rather than scientifically motivated - continued co…

> The lab escape theory has been thoroughly debunked by science

This is absolutely not true. Lab invented was debunked, lab escaped was not.

Have a read: https://project-evidence.github.io/

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#473

My understanding of the author's central thesis is this: the US, despite its world-class virology and disease study labs, regularly has lapses in procedure that regularly lead to situations in which the public might be exposed. Given that this is happening in our own backyard, we might reasonably expect countries of similar status (like China) to experience similar lapses. That reads as reasonable to me, but raises a…

Covid is special because it's highly contagious and has delayed symptoms.

However in my opinion, chinese governments (esp. lower levels) like to lower the severity of any issue / risks and they like to repress / solve the issue with local power until it is solved or gets too big. The central gov that like to hide wrongdoings aren't helping either.

In case of covid, they either underrate the severity or tried to suppress the outbreak locally, which they failed and it already spread too wide enough to be contained.

If covid outbreak happened in europe or us, I believe it'll spread almost the same, albeit slower and you'll knew faster since it'll be in news faster.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#474
post #423
post #354

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What sort of defence in depth can work against a virus that's been engineered to infect humans very easily, and which can only be stopped by shutting down the world economy and waiting months or years for vaccination? I think the last year has proven comprehensively that we simply cannot implement any sort of defence in depth and need to try very hard to eliminate these problems at source. Just like we do with chemic…

How about reasonable health insurance without employment requirement? The defense is NOT to stop the virus (unrealistic defense solution) - it's to make sure we can withstand/resist it so things like vaccines can be put into place so we can go back to some sort of normal (e.g. New Zealand) The USA (only major western country without healthcare) was unique in how many deaths we had. 90% of those were unnecessary.

USA was not unique and isn't even in the top ten for deaths per capita. Plenty of lockdowns happened in Western Europe and yet Portugal, UK, Belgium and Italy all had higher rates than the US.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#475

My understanding of the author's central thesis is this: the US, despite its world-class virology and disease study labs, regularly has lapses in procedure that regularly lead to situations in which the public might be exposed. Given that this is happening in our own backyard, we might reasonably expect countries of similar status (like China) to experience similar lapses. That reads as reasonable to me, but raises a…

The hypothesis is (or maybe this part is established fact?) that this lab was conducting Gain of Function research: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gain_of_function_research It's purposely evolving diseases to spread faster or be more dangerous, for the sake of research. As I understand, it's at least a bit controversial. So maybe there's not as much of it going on as other research? If so, there probably wouldn't be a…

Established fact. Biowarfare is often coated as "defense": we need to develop vaccines for future viruses or engineered pathogens. The offense is top secret.

SARS-COV are classed Category C pathogen by CDC, in line with Hanta virus. SARS-COV is documented as a viable bioweapon, precisely for the things we have seen in the last year, and studied as such by all capable militaries around the world.

The hypothesis is that this lab (and labs in Iran, China and Iran share biowarfare research) was conducting gene-targeted coronavirus research. Using proxy DNA-testing companies serving Western populace to get their data. A good weaponized coronavirus would have an extremely high R. It would look similar to the flu in the first stages. Then at a later stage (after two weeks) it would deliver a "payload" in the brains of the targeted populace, stopping breathing or causing haemorrhage. The non-targeted races would just have a flu and contribute to the spread. Other engineered viruses focus on plausible deniability, straining the hospitals with patients with vague symptoms, hard enough to visit the hospital and contribute to the strain on public services, soft enough not to actually kill them. It would throw the targeted country into chaos and unprepared for a war.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#476

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its very difficult maybe impossible because China is trying very hard to make it that way.

Maybe, but I think it's fairly obvious that this is naturally a hard problem (e.g. having teams of people sample potentially millions of animals in the field) unless you get lucky or catch it in the act.

Naturally hard and then a giant government is doing everything in their power to stymie it at every turn. Regardless of the debate on if this is a logically or morally appropriate thing to do, but one can conclude they wouldn't be doing this if they didn't think there was some possibility of it.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#477

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's also been reported that it wasn't the season for the bat species. Those in favour of the lab leak hypothesis point out that the virus showed up on the scene with all the evolutionary capability to spread amongst humans i.e with batteries included. With previous Sars viruses my understanding is that each zoonotic jump was traceable with examples of previous forms in prior animal hosts to corroborate the lineage.…

You are mixing two theories here: A) A lab leak B) Gain of function research. My understanding is that A) is very much possible because it has happened before (SARS), but we have no evidence yet (and might never acquire). For B) however, from my limited understanding, there is no strong evidence. We only know about a fraction of existing coronaviruses out there and given we observe one, that has caused a pandemic, th…

We do at least know that they were doing gain-of-function research on coronaviruses in the Wuhan lab, since the US publicly funded it.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#478

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would it be more feasible this virus is leaked from the lab other than some wild animals from the market itself? Either can be equally believable yet impossible to prove.

There are cases in Wuhan which predate the wet market cluster. That appears to have been a super spreading event but not the origin. The bats this disease come from we’re not being sold in the market at this time. They’re out of season. So already the theory is assuming a multi-animal hop (some other wild animal got in contact with a bat and got infected, then captured and moved a thousand kilometers to the wet marke…

It’s likely that this is derived from a pangolin virus. Pangolins are most definitely traded at Chinese wet markets.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#479
post #464

> We need to avoid demonizing China over this if we want to ever find out the truth and learn how to prevent another pandemic outbreak. No, we need to shame China and the Chinese people until they respect basic human dignity. Until they do, the country and its people are a dangerous, malignant threat to our civilized, Western world.

A government and its people are not equivalent. The people should not be shamed in the same manner that you would shame a government.

More importantly, with your last sentence you’re implying that China and the entire eastern world is not civilized. Shame on you.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#480
post #122

This article is written by a journalist who is clearly knowledgeable about safety practices and mistakes in US labs, but does not consider the extensive knowledge we have about the sequence of SARS-COV2. The preponderance of evidence supports a natural origin of the virus. This is no way exonerates the Wuhan government from possible culpability—indeed government officials did deliberately suppress information—but thi…

In roughest form, Andersen is saying "SARS-CoV-2 doesn't closely resemble any existing known virus, so it wasn't produced by genetic manipulation of existing known viruses". I think that's true, but it ignores the possibility that the WIV was working with new viruses with unpublished genomes. The WIV routinely organized expeditions to remote bat caves to collect samples. There's naturally some delay between sampling,…

Thank you for this thoughtful post! I learned something and would like to revise my opinion. Also came across this excellent article that covers some of the scientific discussion: https://undark.org/2021/03/17/lab-leak-science-lost-in-polit....

I now think the lab leak hypothesis is worth considering, and regret labeling as a conspiracy theory, although I maintain the characterization that the lab leak hypothesis is frequently found alongside other conspiracy theories.

I also would maintain that the current consensus is that SARS-COV-2 came from natural spillover, and the leak hypothesis is a minority opinion, but one held by credible scientists with well-thought arguments and therefore worth considering. I wish the original article would cite this work.

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