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Earth may be headed into a mini Ice Age within a decade

theregister.co.uk

81–90 of 176 posts

Re: Earth may be headed into a mini Ice Age within a decade

#81
post #10

This is exactly why I think the debate should be less about "how can we as humans stop affecting Earth's natual climate" and "how can we as humans gain control over Earth's natural climate". Climate change happens with us or without us. If we're going to protect our huge investments in climate-dependent infrastructure (i.e. cities) then we're gonna want (say) giant space mirrors to compensate for any zany things that…

Attempting to exercise control over such a chaotic system with simplistic solutions like giant space mirrors strikes me as a very bad idea indeed. Until we have a complete understanding of how the climate is regulated naturally I really don't see how we can do any good at all. Not to mention that, as you say, the politics are beyond us at the moment anyway (global consensus? yeah, right...)

That's assuming that there is any kind of natural 'regulation' of the earth's climate. It appears to veer erratically from mini-ice age to heatwave. However it's true we do need to vary carefully consider the downsides of any potential interventions and be flexible about it. There's far too much dogma and polarisation of debate in climate science at the moment.

Re: Earth may be headed into a mini Ice Age within a decade

#83
post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

nowhere to go? really? last time i checked most of the earth's surface was uninhabited. why do people want to go to mars when the land can be had in the mojave desert for practically no cost? its just as dry but has an oxygen atmosphere, and there is virtually no demand for the land or forget about the mojave. northern canada has a population per square km that is effectively zero. pretty mars-like, but you can hunt…

A) Because every dollar invested in the US space program since inception has created about $7 of economic benefit to the consumer economy. B) (Related to A but worth mentioning separately:) Because the space program has led to major advances in medicine that have improved length and quality of life on Earth. [1] C) To gain access to essentially limitless energy resources via space-based solar. D) To gain access to ma…

> A) Because every dollar invested in the US space program since inception has created about $7 of economic benefit to the consumer economy.

This is intriguing. Do you have a reference and/or can you provide an explanation for this?

Re: Earth may be headed into a mini Ice Age within a decade

#85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For instance Canada may want the earth warmer, whereas Indian would want it cooler. (Since it benefits their respective latitudes.)

Well, I think this would be the simplest: the temperature at any given latitude will be the average of the last n years. Period. But maybe I'm too naive.

Who gets to define n?

Re: Earth may be headed into a mini Ice Age within a decade

#87

Reading the comments on here and many other places about global warming, it makes me sad that nobody is open-minded enough to entertain the possibility that an increase in the Earth's temperature could be a positive-sum change. We know very little about the Earth's natural cycles and the effects we have on them, so we are very far from knowing whether things are going in a good* or bad direction. * Good for everyone…

It is probably because people are comfortable with the familiar. Sure, a warmer earth might be a positive-sum change, but there's an equally good chance that it won't be. So why take the risk of losing what you have if you can avoid it?

> equally good chance that it won't be.

   probability = ??????
is not at all the same thing as

   probability = 0.50

Re: Earth may be headed into a mini Ice Age within a decade

#88

Reading the comments on here and many other places about global warming, it makes me sad that nobody is open-minded enough to entertain the possibility that an increase in the Earth's temperature could be a positive-sum change. We know very little about the Earth's natural cycles and the effects we have on them, so we are very far from knowing whether things are going in a good* or bad direction. * Good for everyone…

Looking around the solar system, we would have to conclude that significant climate change in either direction is bad for life. None of our neighbors appears to support even microbial life, much less complex species. All the evidence suggests that the conditions for life lie in a narrow band, which we are sitting in nicely for the moment. We manipulate the climate at our peril.

Re: Earth may be headed into a mini Ice Age within a decade

#89

Reading the comments on here and many other places about global warming, it makes me sad that nobody is open-minded enough to entertain the possibility that an increase in the Earth's temperature could be a positive-sum change. We know very little about the Earth's natural cycles and the effects we have on them, so we are very far from knowing whether things are going in a good* or bad direction. * Good for everyone…

It is probably because people are comfortable with the familiar. Sure, a warmer earth might be a positive-sum change, but there's an equally good chance that it won't be. So why take the risk of losing what you have if you can avoid it?

Exactly. The worst case, I'm afraid, would be another MARS in the solar system.

Re: Earth may be headed into a mini Ice Age within a decade

#90
post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Attempting to exercise control over such a chaotic system with simplistic solutions like giant space mirrors strikes me as a very bad idea indeed. Until we have a complete understanding of how the climate is regulated naturally I really don't see how we can do any good at all. Not to mention that, as you say, the politics are beyond us at the moment anyway (global consensus? yeah, right...)

That's assuming that there is any kind of natural 'regulation' of the earth's climate. It appears to veer erratically from mini-ice age to heatwave. However it's true we do need to vary carefully consider the downsides of any potential interventions and be flexible about it. There's far too much dogma and polarisation of debate in climate science at the moment.

That is indeed an assumption on my part, although there is evidence of such regulation that I, at least, find compelling; for example:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Vostok_420ky_4curves_insol...

and it's worth pointing out that long term regulation and the shorter term variations that you mentioned aren't necessarily incompatible.

IANA Climate Scientist though!

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