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Earth may be headed into a mini Ice Age within a decade

theregister.co.uk

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Re: Earth may be headed into a mini Ice Age within a decade

#21

Post by natmaster »

hugh3 wrote: post #10

This is exactly why I think the debate should be less about "how can we as humans stop affecting Earth's natual climate" and "how can we as humans gain control over Earth's natural climate". Climate change happens with us or without us. If we're going to protect our huge investments in climate-dependent infrastructure (i.e. cities) then we're gonna want (say) giant space mirrors to compensate for any zany things that…

For instance Canada may want the earth warmer, whereas Indian would want it cooler. (Since it benefits their respective latitudes.)

Re: Earth may be headed into a mini Ice Age within a decade

#22

Post by scottkduncan »

If true, the 70-year cold period could turn out to be a grace period that allows us to get carbon emissions under control by the time solar activity returns to normal. Of course, this could lessen the imperative and make the political task of reaching global consensus more difficult.

Re: Earth may be headed into a mini Ice Age within a decade

#23

Post by gjm11 »

scarmig wrote: post #19

The Maunder minimum argument has been around awhile. A useful counterbalance from NASA 2008: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2008/ -------------------------- "Solar irradiance: The solar output remains low (Fig. 4), at the lowest level in the period since satellite measurements began in the late 1970s, and the time since the prior solar minimum is already 12 years, two years longer than the prior two cycles. This h…

> if a Maunder minimum does somehow manage to give us a couple extra decades [...] that's a godsend.

Maybe not. Suppose the actual effect is to give those who say climate change isn't real, or doesn't matter, enough extra rhetorical ammunition (THE EARTH IS COOLING!!!11!) to prevent anything actually being done to get our house in order. That would be ... not so good.

Re: Earth may be headed into a mini Ice Age within a decade

#25

Post by danparsonson »

hugh3 wrote: post #10

This is exactly why I think the debate should be less about "how can we as humans stop affecting Earth's natual climate" and "how can we as humans gain control over Earth's natural climate". Climate change happens with us or without us. If we're going to protect our huge investments in climate-dependent infrastructure (i.e. cities) then we're gonna want (say) giant space mirrors to compensate for any zany things that…

Attempting to exercise control over such a chaotic system with simplistic solutions like giant space mirrors strikes me as a very bad idea indeed. Until we have a complete understanding of how the climate is regulated naturally I really don't see how we can do any good at all.

Not to mention that, as you say, the politics are beyond us at the moment anyway (global consensus? yeah, right...)

Re: Earth may be headed into a mini Ice Age within a decade

#26

Post by randallsquared »

hugh3 wrote: post #12
kenjackson wrote: post #3

If you thought the climate change debate was crazy before, well this will take crazy to a whole new level.

Yes, it either proves that (a) natural variation in the Earth's climate is far larger than anything we can manage anthropogenically anyway so attempts to cut carbon emissions are a waste of time, or (b) We're only being saved from CO2-induced global warming by a mini ice-age, therefore it's even more urgent to cut CO2 emissions because temperatures are just gonna shoot up as soon as the ice age ends.

Another way to look at (b) is "We're only being saved from a mini ice-age by CO2-induced global warming, therefore it's urgent to avoid cutting emissions and plunging into it for real". The Earth has seen warmer and colder than now, but the warm extremes have been better for life than the cold extremes.

Re: Earth may be headed into a mini Ice Age within a decade

#27

Post by mkr-hn »

scorpion032 wrote: post #18

Relevant: http://www.ted.com/talks/david_deutsch_on_our_place_in_the_c... As David makes the point (at the near end of the video), the best available science in the 1970's predicted that the climate was cooling down. The best available science of today (not the least, with the help of best marketing) would predict Global Warming. The same best scientific estimates of the day also predict that our best projections to…

Our capacity to study the Earth's climate has improved dramatically since the '70s. We barely had an idea of what the weather on other planets looked like.

And I was under the impression that the global cooling folks were a fringe minority of the scientific community (like the AGW people today).

Re: Earth may be headed into a mini Ice Age within a decade

#29

Post by scarmig »

gjm11 wrote: post #23
scarmig wrote: post #19

The Maunder minimum argument has been around awhile. A useful counterbalance from NASA 2008: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2008/ -------------------------- "Solar irradiance: The solar output remains low (Fig. 4), at the lowest level in the period since satellite measurements began in the late 1970s, and the time since the prior solar minimum is already 12 years, two years longer than the prior two cycles. This h…

> if a Maunder minimum does somehow manage to give us a couple extra decades [...] that's a godsend. Maybe not. Suppose the actual effect is to give those who say climate change isn't real, or doesn't matter, enough extra rhetorical ammunition (THE EARTH IS COOLING!!!11!) to prevent anything actually being done to get our house in order. That would be ... not so good.

True. But if lucky happenstance lets us be where we are now in 2060 instead of current predictions, that's still a net win--we'll be a significantly richer world then with more resources and technology to adapt to climate change.

On the other side of things, the ability of CO2 to contribute to the greenhouse effect may well be saturated by then, just counteracted by the solar cycle. Which would leave us in the place where we're at the mercy of sunspots (which have no control over) and our ability to actively remove CO2 from the atmosphere (which we may or may not have control over). Not so good.

Re: Earth may be headed into a mini Ice Age within a decade

#30

Post by nkurz »

pama wrote: post #13

The announcement made on 14 June (18:00 UK time) comes from scientists at the US National Solar Observatory (NSO) and US Air Force Research Laboratory. Does anyone have the link to the original announcement?

Maybe this? http://www.boulder.swri.edu/~deforest/SPD-sunspot-release/SP...
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