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Earth may be headed into a mini Ice Age within a decade

theregister.co.uk

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Re: Earth may be headed into a mini Ice Age within a decade

#51

Post by m_myers »

gjm11 wrote: post #23
scarmig wrote: post #19

The Maunder minimum argument has been around awhile. A useful counterbalance from NASA 2008: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2008/ -------------------------- "Solar irradiance: The solar output remains low (Fig. 4), at the lowest level in the period since satellite measurements began in the late 1970s, and the time since the prior solar minimum is already 12 years, two years longer than the prior two cycles. This h…

> if a Maunder minimum does somehow manage to give us a couple extra decades [...] that's a godsend. Maybe not. Suppose the actual effect is to give those who say climate change isn't real, or doesn't matter, enough extra rhetorical ammunition (THE EARTH IS COOLING!!!11!) to prevent anything actually being done to get our house in order. That would be ... not so good.

People might say the earth is cooling merely because it is? Heavens, we can't have that!

Re: Earth may be headed into a mini Ice Age within a decade

#52

Post by Jach »

saalweachter wrote: post #17

What's the confidence on this? I recall a hub-bub a year or two back because a climate scientist made the scientifically reasonable statement that it was "inconclusive" whether the Earth had warmed in the last 15 years, because the statistical significance of 15 years of data was only at 90%, and scientists like having a 95% confidence before they say something. (With the extra year of data, it is now "conclusive", e…

The basis of confidence intervals holding any usefulness is pretty shaky. See http://uncertainty.stat.cmu.edu/ (it also has a chapter on old ideas such as this).

Re: Earth may be headed into a mini Ice Age within a decade

#54

Post by csomar »

hugh3 wrote: post #10

This is exactly why I think the debate should be less about "how can we as humans stop affecting Earth's natual climate" and "how can we as humans gain control over Earth's natural climate". Climate change happens with us or without us. If we're going to protect our huge investments in climate-dependent infrastructure (i.e. cities) then we're gonna want (say) giant space mirrors to compensate for any zany things that…

This is like using a tool. It may crash while you are using it for no reason, or may be someone else steal it. But this is not a reason not to be careful of your tool and don't abuse it. Especially when you don't have another one.

Re: Earth may be headed into a mini Ice Age within a decade

#55

Post by sabat »

far from facing a global warming problem

We don't have a "global warming" problem. We have a manmade climate change problem, which may be worsened by the Sun's own agenda. I haven't read the Bad Astronomer's take on this, but he's a lot more trustworthy than the OP.

Re: Earth may be headed into a mini Ice Age within a decade

#56

Post by ugh »

randallsquared wrote: post #26
hugh3 wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, it either proves that (a) natural variation in the Earth's climate is far larger than anything we can manage anthropogenically anyway so attempts to cut carbon emissions are a waste of time, or (b) We're only being saved from CO2-induced global warming by a mini ice-age, therefore it's even more urgent to cut CO2 emissions because temperatures are just gonna shoot up as soon as the ice age ends.

Another way to look at (b) is "We're only being saved from a mini ice-age by CO2-induced global warming, therefore it's urgent to avoid cutting emissions and plunging into it for real". The Earth has seen warmer and colder than now, but the warm extremes have been better for life than the cold extremes.

Which life? Industrial age humans? That's who we care about. Our goal is (or at least I hope it is) to enable humans to thrive, we don't really care about other life (at least if we had to pick between humans and other life) as long as it is not instrumental to our success.

Re: Earth may be headed into a mini Ice Age within a decade

#57

Post by Hawramani »

Reading the comments on here and many other places about global warming, it makes me sad that nobody is open-minded enough to entertain the possibility that an increase in the Earth's temperature could be a positive-sum change.

We know very little about the Earth's natural cycles and the effects we have on them, so we are very far from knowing whether things are going in a good* or bad direction.

* Good for everyone involved, such as humans, animals, plants, etc.

Re: Earth may be headed into a mini Ice Age within a decade

#58

Post by ck2 »

I know climate change is not directly related to the current temperature but wow it's strange to read this when it's currently 100 degrees here (no exaggeration) and setting new temperature records for the past few decades.

Basically what's happened is our overly aggressive industrialization has ruined the temperature stability we used to enjoy. And sadly we aren't done yet as China rushes to catch up while we blow up mountains for more coal.

Re: Earth may be headed into a mini Ice Age within a decade

#59

Post by gjm11 »

m_myers wrote: post #51
gjm11 wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> if a Maunder minimum does somehow manage to give us a couple extra decades [...] that's a godsend. Maybe not. Suppose the actual effect is to give those who say climate change isn't real, or doesn't matter, enough extra rhetorical ammunition (THE EARTH IS COOLING!!!11!) to prevent anything actually being done to get our house in order. That would be ... not so good.

People might say the earth is cooling merely because it is? Heavens, we can't have that!

Oh ho ho. But it might be worth distinguishing between (1) "temperatures over the last few years have been decreasing" and (2) "the longer-term trend, of which those last few years are a sample, is downwards", because #2 would mean that global warming isn't a problem after all and #1 wouldn't.

And I'm afraid the recent history of people with a very decided political agenda declining to distinguish between #1 and #2 even when the short-term trend in question consists of one slightly colder-than-average winter takes some of the fun out of your ironic wit, for me.

Re: Earth may be headed into a mini Ice Age within a decade

#60

Post by wunderfool »

run4yourlives wrote: post #42
nathanb wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wouldn't this then require us to "fart around" with the climate of the planets we colonize to make them more like Earth's?

The difference being that there is nobody living on a planet like say, Mars. Last I checked, there are a whole bunch of people with nowhere else to go on Earth as it stands.

nowhere to go? really? last time i checked most of the earth's surface was uninhabited. why do people want to go to mars when the land can be had in the mojave desert for practically no cost? its just as dry but has an oxygen atmosphere, and there is virtually no demand for the land

or forget about the mojave. northern canada has a population per square km that is effectively zero. pretty mars-like, but you can hunt for dinner if you're smart. and once again, the land is basically free.

oh i'm not even mentioning a half dozen inhospitable places that no one occupies....why on earth would these people need to go to mars again??

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