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Neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 variants after infection, vaccination

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211–220 of 267 posts

Re: Neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 variants after infection, vaccination

#211
post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if vaccinated people can contract the virus, they are likely to fight it off relatively quickly and keep the virus load in their bodes low, keeping their chances of transmitting it much lower than an unvaccinated person would. Lets say being vaccinated halves your chances of passing on the virus compared to an unvaccinated person. If almost all the population get vaccinated, we can ease the lockdown to the point…

But if the vaccines don't prevent infection, you won't achieve herd immunity until 70% have been infected one way or another.

Israel data doesn’t make this look to be the case. I don’t see any evidence this is the case.

Re: Neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 variants after infection, vaccination

#212

We've been vaccinating people since December. There ought to be statistical evidence now of whether and how much vaccinated people still get sick from Covid and its variants. Why do we still hear that epidemiologists have no idea about this? For example, everyone being tested for covid or being admitted to the hospital for covid, should be asked if they've been vaccinated, when, and which vaccination. 70 million peop…

This should be the top comment. I really wish this was addressed somewhere.

But with all the charts we see of case, hospitalization, and death counts, why isn’t someone charting data for case, hospitalization, and death counts following vaccinations?

You might see some study with possibly some data buried in it, but this should be part of the rest of the data being broadly shared so that it’s clear the effects it’s having.

Re: Neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 variants after infection, vaccination

#213
post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why are you saying this with such an absolute certainty without providing a convincing argument?

I am not saying it is certain, but there is a distinct class of people who expect everything to go back to the way it was and to do so immediately. They need to consider the possibility that things might _never_ return to the way they were. It is possible that all of the vaccines will work better than we expect and covid-19 will become a mostly-controlled intermittent disease that eventually becomes background noise…

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Re: Neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 variants after infection, vaccination

#214

I am very clueless on the vaccine topic (not a denier of covid or anti vaxxer). All I know is from listening to some interviews with a scientist in the field. But i still do not know what is the definition of "effective vaccine". What does it do? If you have covid and take the vaccine, will the covid go away? Are you still contagious after having the vaccine or can you still get the covid but without the bad effects?…

I'll take a swing at this, being an infectious disease epidemiologist.

When people talk about the "effectiveness of the vaccine", what's actually happening is that they're talking about a smear of different things, which is why you're (justifiably) confused.

There's a few different aspects to think about:

1) When people say things like "The Moderna vaccine is 95% effective", the statistic they're citing is that in a clinical trial, the participants in the treatment arm of the trial had 5% of the outcomes the study was tracking as compared to the treatment arm. In the case of the early vaccine trials, this is stuff like...well...death or severe disease requiring ICU treatment.

It importantly does not mean you have a 5% chance if you get COVID. You have 5% of whatever the chance of someone who didn't have the vaccine has.

There's a reason that endpoint was chosen. A few actually. First, it's the most important one from a public health standpoint, in terms of immediately addressing the pandemic. It's also straightforward and unambiguous to study, which paves the way for faster licensing and thus getting it into the arms of the public. Studying things like if a vaccine is enough to induce herd immunity is much harder as a statistical problem.

Note that I haven't said anything about stopping the epidemic here. That's because this endpoint doesn't measure that. It's possible, for example, that the vaccine can protect you by reducing the severity of an infection, but that that would just push it to an asymptomatic infection that can be passed to others. That's why there's still public health messaging about wearing a mask even if you're vaccinated, etc.

2) There are follow up studies, which are still being done (and for which we are starting to get results) about whether or not the vaccine also reduces whether or not you can give the virus to others. This is what most people think of when we think about vaccines.

3) We don't know how long it will last, but it's likely fairly long lasting, and this is something that we can (and are) monitoring to make sure people don't need booster shots, etc.

4) Herd immunity depends on point #2 working well, and being at a fairly high level. One thing to keep in mind that I say a lot is that "herd immunity" is about a specific place at a specific point in time. It's possible for example that a city or town can have high enough vaccine levels to have achieved herd immunity, but the country (or the globe...) not being vaccinated enough for SARS-CoV-2 to have "gone away".

Public health thinks about this using a couple terms:

Control - "We've got a handle on this, but we've still got it" Elimination - "This is gone in our area, but could come back" Eradication - "This is gone forever"

TB is an example of a disease the U.S. has under Control. This is what we're aiming for with COVID-19 right now. Measles, Mumps and Rubella are, in most of the U.S., considered Eliminated. Smallpox is Eradicated.

Re: Neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 variants after infection, vaccination

#215
post #177

I am very clueless on the vaccine topic (not a denier of covid or anti vaxxer). All I know is from listening to some interviews with a scientist in the field. But i still do not know what is the definition of "effective vaccine". What does it do? If you have covid and take the vaccine, will the covid go away? Are you still contagious after having the vaccine or can you still get the covid but without the bad effects?…

For complete herd immunity we'd need something like 100% that about 80% percent take, which is hard. So, our current goal is to get rid of the bad effects of Covid by limiting spread and limiting severe symptoms. > But i still do not know what is the definition of "effective vaccine". I'm not aware of a rigorous definition, but effective vaccine is something that helps us significantly to accomplish the goal. All the…

The rigorous definition, for efficacy in any particular outcome, is one minus the effect estimate from an RCT, usually a relative risk or hazard ratio, depending on how they approached it statistically.

Re: Neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 variants after infection, vaccination

#216
post #14

This is good news. Now maybe Fauci should rethink his idea that people need to wear their masks for another year even after getting vaccinated. One of his reasons was because of worry about the variants.

It’s bizarre to me that so many people seem to equate not having to wear a mask as the ultimate return to normal. Mask wearing is probably the least invasive, least inconveniencing thing that we have been asked to do throughout this pandemic, yet half the population acts as if it is the equivalent to being handcuffed to a steel post in their basement. If health officials said “after being vaccinated, do whatever you…

In my mind, as an epidemiologist, discontinuing mask wearing should be the absolute last thing we discontinue.

Re: Neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 variants after infection, vaccination

#217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It used to be common to reply to this sort of fear mongering with "anecdotes aren't data." Cool anecdote, bro. Sorry for that person you, a random internet person I have no reason to trust, allegedly know, who is very, very unlucky. The people in power want us to stay afraid and easy to control. Fauci says vaccines work but doesn't trust them enough to stop going into public with TWO masks! Despite being vaccinated!…

Isn't mask wearing still required after vaccination because of the enforcement costs? I.e. it's too difficult to prove whose been vaccinated in every situation, so by requiring masks until the community reaches the target threshold

Think it's still preferable just because vaccinated people can still catch and potentially spread it, and the risk of exposure is still pretty high due to all the people not vaccinated.

Re: Neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 variants after infection, vaccination

#218

We've been vaccinating people since December. There ought to be statistical evidence now of whether and how much vaccinated people still get sick from Covid and its variants. Why do we still hear that epidemiologists have no idea about this? For example, everyone being tested for covid or being admitted to the hospital for covid, should be asked if they've been vaccinated, when, and which vaccination. 70 million peop…

This should be the top comment. I really wish this was addressed somewhere. But with all the charts we see of case, hospitalization, and death counts, why isn’t someone charting data for case, hospitalization, and death counts following vaccinations? You might see some study with possibly some data buried in it, but this should be part of the rest of the data being broadly shared so that it’s clear the effects it’s h…

There are many studies on the Israeli population post-vaccination, since so many Israelis have finished the two-dose course of the Pfizer vaccine. There are even some studies on the British variant there, since that is now responsible for >50% of infections. TL;DR: the Pfizer vaccine is extremely effective against the British variant as well.

Re: Neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 variants after infection, vaccination

#219
post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why are you saying this with such an absolute certainty without providing a convincing argument?

I am not saying it is certain, but there is a distinct class of people who expect everything to go back to the way it was and to do so immediately. They need to consider the possibility that things might _never_ return to the way they were. It is possible that all of the vaccines will work better than we expect and covid-19 will become a mostly-controlled intermittent disease that eventually becomes background noise…

I think you're misunderstanding the question.

Many of the components of "back to normal" are about voluntary compliance with disease control measures. For example, I currently hang out with friends only outdoors or in very small groups - not because I couldn't do more, or because I'm afraid to, but because I'm hoping to prosocially blunt the spread of disease. Right now, I've already started going to restaurants (although I was never a big restaurant guy to begin with); I plan to start hosting and attending parties a few weeks after I've been vaccinated, and I plan to stop wearing a mask in public once Covid vaccines become as available as flu vaccines in my local area.

I'm very open to suggestions that it might make sense to wait a little longer before partying or taking off my mask. I'm sure other people are too. But the burden of proof is on you (or others who think the same way) to explain why this is important and what the timeline is. If your position is just a lecture about what we "need" to adjust to, or an assertion that life might never be normal again, that's not really going to get anyone to comply.

Re: Neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 variants after infection, vaccination

#220
post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who ever said 2 weeks? They serve the exact same role they did at the start. If we'd open stadiums now the exact same thing will happen, that happened 1 year ago. Lockdowns will continue until we either reach herd immunity naturally or through vaccines or we have a treatment/mitigation for the disease.

Every offical that was selling the initial lockdown. Just have to get the R0 below 1, remember? You really think the masses would have been OK with a year of lockdowns and the despair that entails up front? Your conclusions don't match reality. States like Florida have open stadiums and are fairing the same as states like California that insist on totalitarian overreach.

California has done somewhat better than Florida overall — and the vast, vast majority of cases in California came from Southern California, where the lockdown and mask rules were largely not followed. California is 40+ million people; it's basically two Floridas. The northern one followed the rules, the southern didn't, and you can see very clearly which way resulted in fewer cases and deaths. Northern California had one of the lowest case rates in the country. Southern California had one of the highest.
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