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Norwegian experts say blood clots were caused by the AstraZeneca Covid vaccine

sciencenorway.no

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Re: Norwegian experts say blood clots were caused by the AstraZeneca Covid vaccine

#241

Post by bainsfather »

GavinMcG wrote: post #118
marvin wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's 1 in 43.000 (Norway) versus 1 in 2.3 million (AZ numbers). That's a two orders of magnitude difference. While I can amend my statement to agree it's not certain that local factors and randomness haven't affected the outcome that much, it's a very suspicious observation.

n=3 here. It's misplaced to be talking about orders of magnitude when a single case would drastically move the needle. If there were only one case in Norway (i.e. 1 in 130,000) it would still be orders of magnitude difference. But that's not meaningful.

If the rate were 1 in 2.3 million, then with 130,000 people vaccinated:

p = 1/2,300,000

N = 130,000

Prob(0 cases) = (1 - p)*N = 0.9450...

Prob(1 case) ~= p * N * (1 - p)*N = 0.0534...

Prob(2 cases) ~= p*2 * (N*2 / 2) * (1 - p)*N = 0.0015...

Prob(3 cases or more) = 1 - P(0) - P(1) - P(2) ~= 2.886e-05

Which is small enough to refute you comment, yes?

Re: Norwegian experts say blood clots were caused by the AstraZeneca Covid vaccine

#242

Post by raducu »

tyfon wrote: post #185
fab1an wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The clotting with AZ is very different and more serious than what the thrombosis associated with the pill - about half of those who get it die even with best medical care. It predominanctly affects folks who would have a miniscule risk of death by Covid19, so this absolutely needs to be investigated.

I saw the description by the doctor who treated the person who died here in Norway. He called it a "catastrophe in the brain" [1] and the life just could not be saved. It sounds really nasty. Blood clots + low blood plate count at the same time. [1] https://www.nrk.no/norge/innlagt-helsearbeider-dode-_-unders...

Isn't the low blood platelet a direct result of the clots, isn't that expected?

Don't the clots need/use up thr platelets in the process of clotting?

Re: Norwegian experts say blood clots were caused by the AstraZeneca Covid vaccine

#243

Post by Gibbon1 »

kspacewalk2 wrote: post #205
tomjen3 wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Covid has a certain chance of killing any particular person (not the same chance for each person), the vaccine has a much lower chance than average COVID and prevents the COVID chance.

This vaccine has a much lower chance of killing you than COVID on average . From which you cannot draw the conclusion that vaccine has a much lower chance of killing any particular person - e.g. a healthy 20-something. That part is not at all clear.

I'm bothered by two things.

The first is multivariate studies are notorious for throwing false positives especially when positive cases are in the sigle digits.

Comparing data sets collected under different surveillance regimes is difficult.

Re: Norwegian experts say blood clots were caused by the AstraZeneca Covid vaccine

#244

Post by raducu »

AnthonBerg wrote: post #187
Mauricebranagh wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So why not prescribe aspirin until say a month after the second dose.

Because aspirin has no meaningful impact on as severe an autoimmune platelet implosion as is described in these cases.

Are the clots any different than the ones caused by COVID-19 itself?

Do we know for sure it's just the AZ vaccine and not the body's reaction to the spike protein(that is, other vaccines should face the same issue).

Re: Norwegian experts say blood clots were caused by the AstraZeneca Covid vaccine

#246

Post by raducu »

Dagonfly wrote: post #167
nabilhat wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's still too early for the general public to draw conclusions from the data provided. Derek Lowe had some early observations on these numbers and their significance in regards to the critical missing data needed to make decisions: https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/03/16/wh... > "...they say that is indeed “ much lower than would be expected to occur naturally in a general population of this size “…

At least the german Paul-Ehrlich-Institut (which is responsible for the decision here in Germany) states [1]: > "The number of these cases after vaccination with COVID-19 AstraZeneca is statistically significantly higher than the number of cerebral venous thromboses that normally occur in the unvaccinated population. For this purpose, an observed-versus-expected analysis was performed, comparing the number of cases e…

Also, even if we know for sure it's because of the vaccine and of those additional 6 cases, 3 died, we have to keep in mind how many more people would die from covid in 1.6M unvaccinated individuals.

Re: Norwegian experts say blood clots were caused by the AstraZeneca Covid vaccine

#247

Post by unixhero »

Barrin92 wrote: post #218
dekhn wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

hes a clotting expert, not a COVID expert. So of course he sees clots everywhere. Are you sure he's the spokesman, or just making this claim as an independent researcher. There is nothing in the two articles I read saying this is an official position of the hospital.

>hes a clotting expert, not a COVID expert. So of course he sees clots everywhere and while I'm sure that a cancer expert has a tendency to see cancer more than your average guy, I'd still rely on a cancer expert for an opinion on cancer this is a weird take. A clotting expert is supposed to comment on clotting issues, that this is a covid vaccine isn't even really relevant.

Why do you say that? Yes it is relevant. The vaccine has caused multiple cases of patients with blood clots. Some have been fatal.

Analysis of these patienta and their clots by a clotting experts is highly relevant.

Re: Norwegian experts say blood clots were caused by the AstraZeneca Covid vaccine

#248

Post by chithanh »

kyriakos wrote: post #238
smcg wrote: post #81

Europe really messed up their vaccine orders and they are looking for excuses to cover it up.

EMA concluded that these incidents were not caused by the vaccine so it kinda disproves your statement here.

This is not how I read the EMA statement. They don't see any evidence but they didn't exclude the possibility either. Which is why they want the observations documented in the package insert.

Re: Norwegian experts say blood clots were caused by the AstraZeneca Covid vaccine

#249

Post by hda111 »

Barrin92 wrote: post #218
dekhn wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

hes a clotting expert, not a COVID expert. So of course he sees clots everywhere. Are you sure he's the spokesman, or just making this claim as an independent researcher. There is nothing in the two articles I read saying this is an official position of the hospital.

>hes a clotting expert, not a COVID expert. So of course he sees clots everywhere and while I'm sure that a cancer expert has a tendency to see cancer more than your average guy, I'd still rely on a cancer expert for an opinion on cancer this is a weird take. A clotting expert is supposed to comment on clotting issues, that this is a covid vaccine isn't even really relevant.

Correct, it’s irrelevant what type of medicine it is. But of course there should be a huge warning in the PIL and the patients should be able to read it.

Re: Norwegian experts say blood clots were caused by the AstraZeneca Covid vaccine

#250

Post by tim333 »

eastendguy wrote: post #166
fab1an wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The clotting with AZ is very different and more serious than what the thrombosis associated with the pill - about half of those who get it die even with best medical care. It predominanctly affects folks who would have a miniscule risk of death by Covid19, so this absolutely needs to be investigated.

Yep, this^ is the point. It is amazing that this key point is missed in so many discussions. Now.. maybe it is still worth the risk for a young 20 year old female, but I am not so sure - especially since we luckily have other vaccines that do not show this risk.

Well it's certainly worth doing risk reward calculations but so far they seem pretty clearly in favour of taking the vaccine.
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